05/29/04 FCST: Central Plains

[J.B. Dixon]

I'm assuming we will see special 1700z hodograph soundings today??

From this morning's soundings, there's nothing standing in the way of initiation from Cent. KS northward, as was expected. The Noon time soundings, although somewhat predictible at this point, should just be plain fun/alarming to see.

As an aside.........Call it crying wolf all you want, but I hope the word got out to campers, travelers, etc. yesterday before they all left town on the potential seriousness of this. That's the last thing I want to hear about on the news tonight......campers and vacationers caught outdoors, saying that they had no warning. You can't get through to everyone, though.

 

[Austin Ivey]

My group's initial target: Wellington Kansas


Good luck everyone!

 

[Jason Montano]

I'm heading out, I am going to target S Central KS right now, maybe having to shift west from there. Going to find a good WiFi spot and wait for updates to come in. Looks to be a heck of a day throughout the Plains, good luck to all!!

 

[Chris Sokol]

Because of my association with Oklahoma County Emergency Management, I will be staying in Oklahoma today instead of going to KS. I am initially targeting an area around Clinton. Good luck to all of you today, and be safe!

 

[Sheila_Ward]

I'm targeting North Central OK, probably somewhere around Ponca City or Stillwater. I'm heading out now, may adjust my target area as I get closer.

Good luck to all and be safe.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well, it would figure that on what looks to be the best day of chasing in OK I would have to be down in Dallas to be best man in my brother's wedding today. So, my target today will be the D/FW metro at about 4pm when the festivities should be wrapping up, lol. Good luck to all!

 

[Cstok]

I will be targeting the southern part of the risk area... possibly the Braman OK area. One reason:

From SPC this morning:
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE DRYLINE...AND INITIALLY STRONG INHIBITION...WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN DISCRETE CELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM KS SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Looks like Nebraska is filling in with clouds and some precip out
west by McCook. 12Z RUC shows lots of midlevel moisture working in
ahead of the trough. I actually like this because it creates the
baroclinicity I was hoping for up here. An examination of all
profilers and VAD profilers in the region shows weaker deep layer
shear and speed shear up here, better in western Kansas--downstream
of where the hotspot should be. I noted the large cap on AMA
sounding which will overspread Oklahoma later, and is the reason I
think, that RUC shows no precip in southern half of KS or anywhere
in OK by 0Z. I think that's nonsense, by the way, just trying to
see where the model comes up with that. Wind profiles in Oklahoma
are great, no doubt--highly supportive of tornadic supercells. As
the Day 1 mentioned, the midlevel flow perpendicular to the boundary
is perfect for isolated supercells which should be the mode in a
moderately capped environment.

Dewpoints working their way up into north Kansas and southern
Nebraska nicely on the strong 850 mb flow. Moisture is fine all the
way up to SD, and the new RUC picks up on this. You can compare the
9Z and 12Z runs and see the 70F isodrosotherm is much farther north
on the newer run at 0Z. The 12Z also returns the dry punch to its
former position in north central KS and maximizes instability just
east of this feature. It should be noted, however, that so far the
only place the moisture gradient is tightening up is southwest
Nebraska, where McCook shows the first sign of a westerly surge.
That will all shape up later as the surface low defines itself and
the attendant trough.

Clouds are mixing out quickly from west to east in Kansas, though
the early morning showers described in SWODY1 are visible now in NW
KS and SW Nebraska. I like those too. I like their cloud matter to
cool temps, I like their outflow boundaries later on---I'm a big fan
of the early morning precip north of my target.

I plan to take another hour with the data, maybe two. I have super
high speed internet in this motel, faster than home, and I don't
think I'm going too far today.

Tentative target at the moment is an oval from Concordia to
McPherson, dependent entirely on the definition of the sfc trough
and dry punch.

A

 

[John Diel]

Targeting area

Since I will be reporting to a local radio station today, I will be heading out on US 60 someplace. I haven't quite figured where I want to go yet, but with the likely NE movement of the storms that DO get going, I'll want to be able to follow them into the Ponca/Blackwell/Braman areas.

This should put me in a position to cover US 412, US 60, OK 11, and US 160 should the need arise, the roads are such that I can get to these areas within a reasonable amount of time.

It's simply a matter of how far west I want to go.

John Diel

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Tentative target today is northeast Kansas, to the east of a triple point. Going to be a scary ride. I have to be in Wathena, Kansas to do formal portraits at a dance by 8:00 p.m. ... think I can do it? ... guess we're going to find out. I just HAVE to get a quick chase in today or I'd go crazy. Fortunately the target is extremely close to my other engagement and home. Or - - - unfortunately - - - depends on how you look at it.

I just hope no one gets killed today. Days like this end that way too often. Be careful out there ...

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I might be shifting my target a bit north. But a Hobart to Weatherford line is definately where I'm gonna be at. Everyone be safe today for sure, and be sure to REPORT WHAT YOU SEE! This is a day where we can make the difference, don't forget that!

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm thinking the cap is much more breakable south of Salina than some might think. Between the ML CAPE values of 3500-4000 (which yields a SB CAPE of around 5000-6000), and the extreme dryline/moisture gradient, I think 12c is quite breakable at 700, as is 20c at 850. Much like Amos is enjoying what looks like (on the surface) a seemingly-hampering (but in actuality, a helping one) effect (showers north of his target now), I'm enjoying the fact that we have no precip at the moment, which is different than forecast; outflow boundaries will not be needed for enhanced tornadic potential in S KS/NC OK today with the basic windfields that are already in place. And with a quicker recovery that no precip will produce, this leads to more insolation time as the main energy comes out.

What is setting up is a split....two regions with enhanced potential: N/NE KS/SE NE and S KS/NC OK. I like the dryline lately, it's been hot. And the area around the KS/OK border will be just SE of the surface low progged to be in W KS by 0Z. The main ingredient that I favor is the windfield in S KS/NC OK. Textbook supercell hodographs in this area, along with incredible CAPE and an insane gradient on the dryline.

I expect storms to fire first in Amos' area, then work their way south. because of this, I WILL NOT fly north and abandon the nest upon first confirmation of convection north of us into central KS.....I will wait, believe in my target, and enjoy the fruits of what may come.

Made the important phone calls I needed to make today, I'd suggest the rest of you do this as well. While for us, a day like today is exciting and full of historic potential, it's usually a nightmare for people in general. If this event transpires as forecast, some people won't have homes this time tomorrow. Others will no longer be alive. It's a grim predicition, but a true one. All any of us can do is try our best to report what we're seeing, then it's up to the people to do what they will with that information. We can only hope they take it seriously and react, as to alleviate (sp?) the magnitude of the typical outcome days like today bring.

 

[Rich Pena]

Oklahoma:

Going to be a very tough day for Oklahoma as well today, I just can't see what is going to go wrong with Oklahoma today after 12-2PM today even 2m Td looks better and now CAPE 4000 (14z) very nice picture type storms i bet in oklahoma nice and clear out, starting west OKC South and North of OKC... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/compmap/ I am targeting from OKC noonish to start then moving into South West Oklahoma after initiation sw area by 4pm-ish. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

Infrared:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/...test_US_nir.jpg
Outlook:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ok/special.html
Vapor:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/g8/latest_g8wv.gif
ADDS
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/flight_path/
Experimental:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphica...s/conusWeek.php

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I agree with Shane--call friends and family in the area and tell them to pay close attention. Try to think of how you might report something if you believe you are observing people in emergency situations. Remember there are going to be at least 1000 chasers up and down the dryline today (luckily we're a little spread out), so watch the traffic, too.

Both 12Z RUC and ETA depict screaming easterly surface winds in southeast NE and extreme northeast KS at 0Z, positioning the surface low in approximately the same spot. I have been following current obs this morning like a madman and the RUC is on target so far. Also both models fix some baroclinicity along the KS/NE border, like the result of the thermal gradient from cloud cover to the north, outflow boundaries from aforementioned precip. This is what Bill Reid described as a 'poor man's triple point' when discussing the setup on the 26th in Oklahoma. I like it, and I ain't leaving it--LOL.

I may drop south a hair to get out of the clouds, but I'm in no rush at the moment. I'm anxious to see these advertised features show themselves in the observations and channel imagery.

 

[Richard Halter]

We positioned ourselves in Lawrence yesterday perfectly for our Friday target - Royals/Twins baseball game in KC :lol:

Looks like we are going to head out shortly for central Kansas, maybe Salinas to start. Chuck Vlcek, my chase partner, likes the look of the dryline setup, and things are moving really slowly today - so if something gets on the ground and stays there, it ought to be photogenic.

This is my our last chase day - three PDS's in one week is about as good as it gets - I kept telling every one that things couldn't get started until I got to the plains!