8/23/05: FCST Central High Plains

[Tom Dulong]

This from the Boulder, CO WFO in their 4 am Sig Wx Otlk

THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF A GREELEY TO DENVER TO KIOWA LINE. WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IN PLACE SOME OF THE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Additionally, SPC's Mesoscale Analysis Page has the following values from DEN-FCL eastward into northwest KS:

MU Cape 1000-1500 J/Kg
SRH 80-100 m**2/s**2
LCL Ht 600-1000 ft agl

These values are fairly respectable in northeast CO for August. The northeast CO mesocyclone is evident this morning in the surface plot just
southeast of Denver. Later in the day, this feature will likely become the focus for first initiation east of the mountains. Look for a few brief weak tornadoes along the mesocyclone or other boundaries late this afternoon.