Kyle Soldani
EF2
May has arrived, and with it perhaps an alright day to get out and about. I plan to head west out of Wichita tomorrow afternoon towards the dryline setting up near Dodge, perhaps a bit east or south; we'll see where the real-time surface is throwing the dryline. RAP is panting a target a bit east of DDC while the NAM drops things a bit more in favor of the panhandle. Southwesterly winds really begin to back the dryline around 23z with dryline recession 00 to 01z. Supercell composite values are holding near 15 in the area with helicity values being pretty dang healthy. Lid strength values are hovering around 4-5 so I'm hopeful that might keep things somewhat discrete if an updraft can get going. Composite EHI is plentiful at 5+ for the 1km and over 11 near Kiowa county. RAP and NAM both agree on mid-level lapse rates being plentiful in keeping things cooking.
All told, RAP, NAM and GFS aren't quite agreeing on where convergence and everything will setup. RAP and GFS somewhat agree on a more DDC target while the NAM drops things into the panhandle. We shall see how it pans out.
All told, RAP, NAM and GFS aren't quite agreeing on where convergence and everything will setup. RAP and GFS somewhat agree on a more DDC target while the NAM drops things into the panhandle. We shall see how it pans out.