05/29/04 FCST: Central Plains

FYI: I'm told that, tentaively, the high risk area will also cover the eastern half of Kansas and much of eastern and southeastern Nebraska, though this is always subject to last minute analysis and coordination.
 
Here are portions of WFO OUN's latest HWO:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. A MODERATE RISK EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE HIGH RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHEROKEE...TO EL RENO AND OKLAHOMA CITY...TO CHANDLER. SURROUNDING THIS HIGH RISK WILL BE A MODERATE RISK EAST OF A WOODWARD...TO HOBART...TO WICHITA FALLS TEXAS LINE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.


PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.
 
Still like NC Kansas from Salina to Concordia (near trip. point). Although ETA has the 500mb winds weaker in this area, the lower levels seem to be more potent. Not worried too much about moisture throughout the area... we'll just see where we can get winds backed at the surface.

Aaron
 
If this holds it will keep my gas bill down at least.

Don't like "daybreak showers" and the "early saturday afternoon start" comments

but more boundries will be around
 
Its not day 1 yet, and there's a high risk issued....WOW :shock:

I expect the high risk to possibly move a few miles further south at least, along with west. But right now, OKC has a huge bullseye on its back...again. My initial target is Hobart, depending on storm motion, that probably won't change as I'm not looking for a metro chase, but then again, I did it May 8th last year :oops:
 
Day 1 just came out:

1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SRN
NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK TO SWRN MN...

Mike
 
After glancing at the 0Z ETA run, I'm very impressed with the 700mb trough pushing thru the Salina/Wichita area just before 0Z; not to mention the nice dryline buldge as well. Not too many negatives in this one. Looks like we'll make our way toward Salina in the morning and adjust from there. I'm very interested in seeing what the morning soundings will bring as well. Should be a very interesting day on the dryline to say the least.

Tim
 
I'm most interested in the exact position of the surface low that's progged to develop in SW Kansas by 0Z....I want to be ENE of this feature. Lots of targets to chose from today, but I like SC Kansas now, based on the position of this LOW and the strong windfields. I made my forecast adjustment based on my 10pm glance of the 0Z ETA last night.....then went to sleep.

Just saw the High Risk for the first time a while ago, and it seems to agree with my 10pm thinking, more or less...because it was pretty obvious with the 0Z ETA that the powder keg potential was there. I only wonder if, being Memorial Day weekend and all, the NWS/SPC didn't coordinate the High Risk more to grab public attention/awareness than because of the actual, expected coverage/intensity of severe weather. Certainly today will be a great chase day, but I'm wondering if the the High catagory is more of a public-interest/protection thing than a true representation of SPC's expectations.

Either way - the 0Z ETA makes ya go "hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm"
 
Thought I would add my thoughts in here although I'm sure I've a lot to learn... let's see how close I am!

T+24 ETA for 00Z (19CDT) shows strong instability now overlain by impressive deep layer shear. Wind speeds above 850mb are forecast to be above 40-50 knots across most of the N OK and central/E KS areas, with strong and consistent 0-6km directional of approximately 50º. This is yielding some decent helicity values in the same regions that are being forecast upwards of 3000j/kg of SBCAPE. To be accurate we need to see surface T/Td of something approaching 85/68 in the target region. Current dews are in the mid 60's and with a strong feed from the S coupled with E TX Td's exceeding 70, the forecast looks likely to be realistic.

CINH is forecast to be strong in the morning but breaking down across most of E OK by 1pm CDT. Considering the axis of the theta-e plume and other forecast parameters (which all seem to be nicely in phase) I would be planning an initial target area of somewhere between Stillwater, OK and Ponca City, OK. There are concerning road options when you get towards the Osage Indian Reservation and the Arkansas River/Keystone Lake though, so half an eye is still being kept on the potential in S KS.

SPC have issued a high risk for the area in their day 1 outlook now with a 25% chance of tornadoes, hopefully the RUC will confirm the potential in a few hours time... good luck to everyone chasing out there and stay safe. Although an outbreak makes for an interesting event to follow, I hope any tornadoes stay out over rural areas.

Sam (on his sofa in the UK wishing he wasn't!)
 
Good morning all!

Leaving for Salina in less than 20 minutes.. saw SPCs HIGH RISK and glanced over some of the models.. it may be public awareness, but as Shane said.. Hmmm...

Be safe and good luck to everyone out there.. will go to Salina and make adjustments from there.

Tony (4:28am MDT)
 
If you're putting your target anywhere along US 81 between I-70 and US 36 (Salina to Belleville), I think you're going to have to really try hard to NOT see a significant tornado. If this past week has taught me anything, it's that you can rely on your good friend, the CF-DL intersection. This corridor should have mesoscale parameters off the charts by 2:00 this afternoon. LI's, Sig Svr, Sig Tor, Sup Composite......I would imagine will pool to numbers possibly higher than they were on Monday. Yeesh!

FYI.....Hastings NWS is really good about being descriptive with their thoughts (unlike OAX) on possible locations for initiation, etc... Their morning outlook could be helpful to those on the fence (although I have no clue who would still be on the fence!)

http://kamala.cod.edu/ne/latest.flus43.KGID.html

My Target: Concordia, KS
 
The 6Z ETA appears to back up the 0Z run, so things still look on track. At this point, I'm torn over two areas; NC KS/SC NE and SC KS. In many ways, I feel like a kid in a candy store b/c almost everywhere looks good today. NC KS appears to be just East of the surface low at 0Z and over a very impressive area of upper level divergent flow aloft. SC KS also looks awesome along the dryline and appears to be the recepient of the left front exit region of the 250mb jet. I was originally thinking an area bound between Salina to Wichita, but with things shifting a bit further West along the dryline, I'm thinking about heading down to the Great Bend/Pratt area by early afternoon. My gut tells me that SC KS and OK will be the best areas for stronger tornadoes today. But since I'm targeting this area, my home area will most likely get hit the worst. Oh well.

Tim
 
Well T+9 RUC is now showing 4pm CDT and it shows much more instability than ETA has offering over 5000j/kg of CAPE and a -10 to -13 LI. The strongest instability looks to be in the Salina, Kansas area, but the shear profile appears better further S. I've little doubt widespread severe storms are going to breakout from central Oklahoma to central S Nebraska all capable of producing tornadoes, strong straight line winds and large hail. If I was chasing I'd be hoping to find a chaseable storm rather than getting tangled up in the messy MCS it will probably all turn in to, though in this situation that would probably mean central S Oklahoma where the storms may turn out less severe. I quite like the look of the road network across southern Kansas and this region has the greatest potential for strong instability and strong shear, so given the option, this is probably the choice I would be making this morning...

SPC have released an EDS: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

Stay safe
 
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