06/10/05 TALK: Central Plains

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Moore, OK
Strong wording from today's latest forecast discussion from the OUN WFO hints at a signifcant outbreak across all of the Great Plains during the Fri/Sat period. Looking at the latest models, the longwave sitting out on the west coast will play a great role in the significance of the system this weekend.

Here is the wording from OUN:

REGARDING LATE WEEK...HAVE A VERY STRONG FEELING THAT SOMETHING BIG IS BREWING. LOOKING AT PROGGED LONGWAVE PATTERN - WITHOUT GETTING BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILS - THE SETUP LOOKS ABOUT AS POTENT FOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN NEARLY 25 YEARS OF OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE.

SCREAMING MESSAGE IS THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 1 OR MORE SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL-U.S. SEVERE WX OUTBREAKS..BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THU BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE FRI-SAT-SUN PERIOD. PLAN TO HIT THIS HARD IN THE NOON HWO.


Pretty strong wording for something that is still three days away. Please post your thoughts here.
 
6/12

Looks like Sunday the 12th is the day per NAM/GFS over the 10-11. Jet streak still approaching CA coast by Saturday morning. I see Sunday as the day to spend on gas if you're picking just one day. Time to switch some work shifts.
 
Re: 6/12

Originally posted by Adam Atkins
Looks like Sunday the 12th is the day per NAM/GFS over the 10-11.

And guess who's flying MCI-ATL-BUF on the 12th? :-(

Who knows, maybe I'll see a wedge crossing Lake Erie or Ontario on the 13th? LOL
 
Sunday will be the day I eye intensively as I will be free from work Sunday thru Wednesday and can chase. The only drawback is that I close at my job Saturday night and would likely have to be on the road very very early in the morning Sunday to make it in time. Otherwise, I'll be carefully eyeballing the weekend.
 
As potent as in the past 25 years ???????????? :shock:
WOW !!

I can't recall wording like that before, but I'm not going to hold my breath on it. Seems like the forecasters (this year) have been "crying wolf" quite too often lately.

Sure hope this pans out though.

Is perhaps our "meat and potatoes" season arriving just a little later than usual?
 
This afternoon's AFD doesn't talk much at all about it, my guess is someone was catching some SDS.
 
Ooooo kayyyy.... this is weird. First, WHY ON EARTH would someone that is supposed to be a Federal employee and "professional" forecaster put wording like that in a discussion? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Second off, look at the new updated discussion !!! There's no mention of a significant, life-altering severe weather event.

This is what pi$$es me off about the forecasters this year... they go crying wolf way before they get their "#$%^" together !!!!!!!!! :twisted:

We're creating a widespread "panic" and fear in a lot of people by doing this... so to all you recent grads and soon to be Met. grads, please exercise caution in your wording.

IMO, that guy who put that posting out earlier today should have a serious counseling if not worse. As a teacher myself, if I put such a strong emphasis on something like that, I'd damn better have the "nads" to back it up !!! That's rediculous and very unprofessional.

"Have a feeling" ??

It's almost as if the discussion was typed to a pen pal rather than something that is disseminated to the public for discussion. Again, IMO, just unprofessional.

If the forecast does hold true, and there is significant severe weather, so be it. But come on, how often do we get a message like that 3-5 days out from the actual event ???

For those that disagree with me, I guess you're already holding your breath and your face is :oops: by now?

Sorry, I'm "rambling" here... just amazes me how they keep on doing this stuff and it reflects so poorly. I hate to say this, but how much more is Norman wanting to embarass itself in front of the nation? Haven't we demonstrated enough inability with our football performance the past two years? (sorry, wrong thread). Okay, I'm done now. Time to take my Xanax. :wink: Gees !!!!!!!!!
 
Well, thank God I'm flying to Washington, D.C. on Sunday. I mean I wouldn't want to catch a massive tornado outbreak or anything. :( Saturday is lovely, but looking at Sunday's GFS almost makes me want to weep.

That said -- IMO, one of the biggest reasons we need forecasters is for their "feelings". Computer models can do pretty well, but the human brain is better, and often our intuition is just a concious manifestation of a whole lotta subconcious processing going on. Same reason a farmer can step out of his door in the morning on a clear sky day and somehow "know" it's going to rain in the afternoon. I'm guessing that after 25 years of forecasting, your "hunches" can be more valuable than the most expensive supercomputer. :) I see where you're coming from -- you don't want forecasters to break out the Ouiji board or to start hypeing something without need, but how often do you hear OUN getting carried away? Let's see what this system does... if the forecaster turns out to be right, he deserves a clap on the back for giving us all a heads-up! :D
 
Originally posted by Billy Griffin

This is what pi$$es me off about the forecasters this year... they go crying wolf way before they get their \"#$%^\" together !!!!!!!!! :twisted:

What pisses me off is a guy like you, who is obviously so gifted in forecasting that he freely criticizes the world's best forecasters (who actually get paid to do it), sits at OU with a teaching job instead of being lofted to the top of the forecasting world, perhaps as the MIC of the SPC. There simply is no justice.


Originally posted by Billy Griffin

We're creating a widespread \"panic\" and fear in a lot of people by doing this... so to all you recent grads and soon to be Met. grads, please exercise caution in your wording.

LOL, yeah, I can't even count as high as the number of Jo Schmos who actually read meteorologial dribble such as official forecasts. The knee-jerk reaction type folks watch Gary England. They don't read NWSFO area forecasts. The people who read those post to wx forums bitching about anything less than perfection.


Originally posted by Billy Griffin

IMO, that guy who put that posting out earlier today should have a serious counseling if not worse. As a teacher myself, if I put such a strong emphasis on something like that, I'd damn better have the \"nads\" to back it up !!! That's rediculous and very unprofessional.

What's ridiculous is a teacher (while bashing the chops of a fellow teacher) screwing up the spelling of a 5th grade level word and not bothering to fix it.

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

\"Have a feeling\" ??

In police work they call this a "hunch". And hunches are often the groundwork for many skilled detectives.


Originally posted by Billy Griffin

It's almost as if the discussion was typed to a pen pal rather than something that is disseminated to the public for discussion. Again, IMO, just unprofessional.

But we all laugh it up when they get personal in a humorous way, like when they lament how boring or out-of-character the current pattern has been. Some dude who's been sitting in a chair 25 years watching this stuff has earned the right to say whatver he wants in an outlook IMO. If the guy writes "boring capped environment will still yield cotton candy clouds - I love cotton candy, it just melts in your mouth - through the weekend..." it's perfectly fine.


Originally posted by Billy Griffin+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Billy Griffin)</div>
If the forecast does hold true, and there is significant severe weather, so be it. But come on, how often do we get a message like that 3-5 days out from the actual event ???[/b]

Since you asked...I wonder how many students remember Howard Bluestein's comment days before April 26, 1991?


<!--QuoteBegin-Billy Griffin

For those that disagree with me, I guess you're already holding your breath and your face is :oops: by now?

Nah, I just don't believe in slamming someone who's clearly more qualified at something than I am. These forecasters' lives depend ontheir salaries, and they get paid to predict weather. No one stops to think about that, all they care about is what someone said about a given event, and how much more they know because they have a degree (and no job) or .edu at the end of their email. I can't count the number of times OU students I've known have slammed their professors, saying they couldn't teach or relate the material. And in all of those cases, I held the same opinion as I am now - they're pros, they're getting paid and you're not, and that, put bluntly, means shut the f*ck up.
 
Originally posted by Shane Adams

Since you asked...I wonder how many students remember Howard Bluestein's comment days before April 26, 1991?

Sorry Aaron, this is the only time I'll go off topic on this.... I promise.. what did Howie say the days before then?

I am just curious, I was only in grade school at that time..... but yes.. I do remember April 26th of 91', what a day!
 
And in all of those cases, I held the same opinion as I am now - they're pros, they're getting paid and you're not, and that, put bluntly, means shut the f*ck up.

Thanks. Nice to know I deserve that for simply making a post.
Nice language too.
 
If the rule is, whoever posts the controversial, slamfest material first is ok, then by all means, I'll start threads instead of replying to them. As long as people start threads with posts like Billy's (6-10 TALK), I will post my replies holding nothing back. You fire a shot, you better expect to have one fired back. I see this continuing downward spiral towards a WX-CHASE mentality on here, it's quite a shame.
 
I think this will get it back on topic

MODERATE OUTLOOK ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK

Looks like you panhandle chasers may get a favorable chase. Looks like I'll need to watch out in this area as I am just east of the MDT risk area. I think this will help those from longer distances away on making the decision to come as early as Friday or not.
 
Yup, looks like that OUN forecaster may have been far smarter than some were giving him credit for. How often do you see a moderate risk with a 35% probability graphic on a Day 3? I don't ever recall seeing that. It shows they think there is the potential there for something big and confidence is high it will verify.

These big events are often easy to spot a week away. The models seem to be a bit more consistent recently. And with all of them in agreement with run to run consistency, showing there is bigtime potential, I don't think it is at all inapropriate to sound the alarm a few days in advance.

This OUN forecaster who made this call may show us what 25 years experience working at the NWS as a forecaster is all about! ;)
 
I hate to be one of those "got a feeling" guys....but I really do have a feeling. I don't know if it comes from living in this area your whole life or what, but sometimes you just "feel" like something is brewing. It's been humid as hell lately out here....like east TX type muggy feeling. Nothing has really happened to eat all that juice up much. A few hailers and a weird SW moving supercell, but nothing grand really. Just days and days of moisture pumping up into the Panhandle/South Plains. Tremendous capes bubbling CU but not breaking the cap. Instability running wild.

We'll see what happens. The panhandle is well overdue for another one of those grand events we used to get with supercells lined up from SW KS to Midland, TX. I remember those days. I'd lie if I said I didn't miss them. :wink:
 
I have a feeling too, but maybe it was yesterday's 4 pops, 2 bags of chips, and 2 rice crispy bars(only food eaten). It doesn't feel real well this morning for some reason. Hopefully it has nothing to do with the weather and all the things it requires for an outbreak to happen.

I haven't had much time to look at anything that far ahead. I will say though that reading the forecasters outlook and the day 3 have made me quite happy this morning. I mean it could still be May and instead of complaining about a highly worded outlook we could be complaining about the complainers regarding the crap pattern.

Glancing at the 0z eta I'm not seeing the armegedon for Friday. It certainly looks like a chase day however. Maybe west of AMA on the NM border? That or maybe CO upslope. Probably the latter.
 
Got a couple of guys coming in from Florida early on Friday to ride along for the chase and will be chasing all weekend (hope to anyway - Mother Nature willing). Now that my son is finally out of school, he's really looking forward to this weekend also.

Air is SO juicy... it looks like a nice weekend for chasing, and I hope some of the forecasts can be a little more clear as the weekend approaches. Sure is nice to see that MOD on the Day 3. Guess I can't recall that too often in the past. Certainly gets everyone excited and optimistic - and hey, a weekend chase... we'll take it! :wink:

Preliminary target: Guymon, OK (offers good north/south options)
 
Got the OK from my boss to take off work Thursday through Wednesday of next week, am leaving NC and heading somewhere in the vicinity of the SW Kansas/CO border to setup shop for Friday. Will likely wait until
late morning Friday to decide on a specific target area, looking for an outflow boundary, dryline buldge, or triple point. Looks to be an active weekend, knocking on wood for no car problems during this vacation;)
 
I'm happy to see the OUN pm AFD noted my primary concern with Friday and this weekend's events -- tropical development in the Gulf. I've stated my main concern numerous times so far, so I won't elaborate any more. I will just say that I think we'll have severe moisture issues if we see a rapidly-developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf in the next 24 hours.
 
Yes, the effect of this tropical system may be significant, but will be very tricky to pin down until possibly even the day of the event. The further east it goes in the Gulf, of course, the lesser the impact. Also, keep in mind that tropical cyclones are generally much more compact than synoptic scale extratropical lows. If we had one of those parked over the north Gulf Coast, instead of a TC, I would be much more concerned. It will be very interesting to see what transpires, and how much effect it actually has.

Anyway, I'm a little concerned with the weakening trend in the 500 mb winds over the TX/OK panhandles for Friday. The 18Z Eta continues this trend, and now only has 25 kts or so over most of this area. However, the GFS has been much more consistent in keeping 40 kts at 500 mb over this area, and in fact, I've been quite impressed with the consistency, run after run, of the general placement of the shortwave trough, surface low, and even the precip max it develops by 0Z, for the last several runs. With this in mind, I would tend to lean more heavily toward the GFS. The wind fields below this level, even on the Eta however, still look good, with strong directional shear at least. I think, that at least for Friday's potential severe event, the effects of the approaching tropical cyclone will be minimal.
 
On the issue of the TC, there is a large t-storm complex over Honduras that could put an end to our TC, providing it would just have to send a nice cold outflow boundary north towards the surface low. On the other hand if the TC is not snuffed out by Honduras t-storms the surface low should follow up along the waters just west of the Floridian peninsula., and the majority of its convection will be over Florida its self. I don’t think it will be too big of a problem for us on Friday, unless it heads a little west into the middle of the gulf. Lets just cross our fingers and hope that it heads west and loses some of its punch.
 
I'm not sure how much that TC has to do with it - but suspect that SPC will back down a bit from the earlier outlook. Still has potential to be a good svr wx day - but looks fairly ordinary based on the last few runs of the NAM, whereas the GFS solution is much more aggressive. Also - the NAM is horrible with TC systems - so would put more faith in the GFS with regard to those issues - which appears to deal with the TC quite well relative to the TPC guidance, and also appears to have minimal impact on the conditions in the Great Plains. Certainly though, with the moisture transport of the TC, when the main upper level system emerges on Sunday-Monday, there could be some impressive rainfall - and hopefully other effects..... ;)

Glen
 
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