06/10/05 TALK: Central Plains

[Lance Maxwell]

Strong wording from today's latest forecast discussion from the OUN WFO hints at a signifcant outbreak across all of the Great Plains during the Fri/Sat period. Looking at the latest models, the longwave sitting out on the west coast will play a great role in the significance of the system this weekend.

Here is the wording from OUN:

REGARDING LATE WEEK...HAVE A VERY STRONG FEELING THAT SOMETHING BIG IS BREWING. LOOKING AT PROGGED LONGWAVE PATTERN - WITHOUT GETTING BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILS - THE SETUP LOOKS ABOUT AS POTENT FOR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN IN NEARLY 25 YEARS OF OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE.

SCREAMING MESSAGE IS THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR 1 OR MORE SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL-U.S. SEVERE WX OUTBREAKS..BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THU BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE FRI-SAT-SUN PERIOD. PLAN TO HIT THIS HARD IN THE NOON HWO.

Pretty strong wording for something that is still three days away. Please post your thoughts here.

 

[Adam Atkins]

6/12

Looks like Sunday the 12th is the day per NAM/GFS over the 10-11. Jet streak still approaching CA coast by Saturday morning. I see Sunday as the day to spend on gas if you're picking just one day. Time to switch some work shifts.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Re: 6/12

Originally posted by Adam Atkins
Looks like Sunday the 12th is the day per NAM/GFS over the 10-11.

And guess who's flying MCI-ATL-BUF on the 12th? :-(

Who knows, maybe I'll see a wedge crossing Lake Erie or Ontario on the 13th? LOL

 

[Tony Laubach]

Sunday will be the day I eye intensively as I will be free from work Sunday thru Wednesday and can chase. The only drawback is that I close at my job Saturday night and would likely have to be on the road very very early in the morning Sunday to make it in time. Otherwise, I'll be carefully eyeballing the weekend.

 

[Billy Griffin]

As potent as in the past 25 years ???????????? :shock:
WOW !!

I can't recall wording like that before, but I'm not going to hold my breath on it. Seems like the forecasters (this year) have been "crying wolf" quite too often lately.

Sure hope this pans out though.

Is perhaps our "meat and potatoes" season arriving just a little later than usual?

 

[rdale]

This afternoon's AFD doesn't talk much at all about it, my guess is someone was catching some SDS.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Ooooo kayyyy.... this is weird. First, WHY ON EARTH would someone that is supposed to be a Federal employee and "professional" forecaster put wording like that in a discussion? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Second off, look at the new updated discussion !!! There's no mention of a significant, life-altering severe weather event.

This is what pi$$es me off about the forecasters this year... they go crying wolf way before they get their "#$%^" together !!!!!!!!! :twisted:

We're creating a widespread "panic" and fear in a lot of people by doing this... so to all you recent grads and soon to be Met. grads, please exercise caution in your wording.

IMO, that guy who put that posting out earlier today should have a serious counseling if not worse. As a teacher myself, if I put such a strong emphasis on something like that, I'd damn better have the "nads" to back it up !!! That's rediculous and very unprofessional.

"Have a feeling" ??

It's almost as if the discussion was typed to a pen pal rather than something that is disseminated to the public for discussion. Again, IMO, just unprofessional.

If the forecast does hold true, and there is significant severe weather, so be it. But come on, how often do we get a message like that 3-5 days out from the actual event ???

For those that disagree with me, I guess you're already holding your breath and your face is by now?

Sorry, I'm "rambling" here... just amazes me how they keep on doing this stuff and it reflects so poorly. I hate to say this, but how much more is Norman wanting to embarass itself in front of the nation? Haven't we demonstrated enough inability with our football performance the past two years? (sorry, wrong thread). Okay, I'm done now. Time to take my Xanax. :wink: Gees !!!!!!!!!

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Well, thank God I'm flying to Washington, D.C. on Sunday. I mean I wouldn't want to catch a massive tornado outbreak or anything. Saturday is lovely, but looking at Sunday's GFS almost makes me want to weep.

That said -- IMO, one of the biggest reasons we need forecasters is for their "feelings". Computer models can do pretty well, but the human brain is better, and often our intuition is just a concious manifestation of a whole lotta subconcious processing going on. Same reason a farmer can step out of his door in the morning on a clear sky day and somehow "know" it's going to rain in the afternoon. I'm guessing that after 25 years of forecasting, your "hunches" can be more valuable than the most expensive supercomputer. I see where you're coming from -- you don't want forecasters to break out the Ouiji board or to start hypeing something without need, but how often do you hear OUN getting carried away? Let's see what this system does... if the forecaster turns out to be right, he deserves a clap on the back for giving us all a heads-up!

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

This is what pi$$es me off about the forecasters this year... they go crying wolf way before they get their \"#$%^\" together !!!!!!!!! :twisted:

What pisses me off is a guy like you, who is obviously so gifted in forecasting that he freely criticizes the world's best forecasters (who actually get paid to do it), sits at OU with a teaching job instead of being lofted to the top of the forecasting world, perhaps as the MIC of the SPC. There simply is no justice.

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

We're creating a widespread \"panic\" and fear in a lot of people by doing this... so to all you recent grads and soon to be Met. grads, please exercise caution in your wording.

LOL, yeah, I can't even count as high as the number of Jo Schmos who actually read meteorologial dribble such as official forecasts. The knee-jerk reaction type folks watch Gary England. They don't read NWSFO area forecasts. The people who read those post to wx forums bitching about anything less than perfection.

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

IMO, that guy who put that posting out earlier today should have a serious counseling if not worse. As a teacher myself, if I put such a strong emphasis on something like that, I'd damn better have the \"nads\" to back it up !!! That's rediculous and very unprofessional.

What's ridiculous is a teacher (while bashing the chops of a fellow teacher) screwing up the spelling of a 5th grade level word and not bothering to fix it.

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

\"Have a feeling\" ??

In police work they call this a "hunch". And hunches are often the groundwork for many skilled detectives.

Originally posted by Billy Griffin

It's almost as if the discussion was typed to a pen pal rather than something that is disseminated to the public for discussion. Again, IMO, just unprofessional.

But we all laugh it up when they get personal in a humorous way, like when they lament how boring or out-of-character the current pattern has been. Some dude who's been sitting in a chair 25 years watching this stuff has earned the right to say whatver he wants in an outlook IMO. If the guy writes "boring capped environment will still yield cotton candy clouds - I love cotton candy, it just melts in your mouth - through the weekend..." it's perfectly fine.

Originally posted by Billy Griffin+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Billy Griffin)</div>

If the forecast does hold true, and there is significant severe weather, so be it. But come on, how often do we get a message like that 3-5 days out from the actual event ???[/b]

Since you asked...I wonder how many students remember Howard Bluestein's comment days before April 26, 1991?


<!--QuoteBegin-Billy Griffin
For those that disagree with me, I guess you're already holding your breath and your face is by now?

Nah, I just don't believe in slamming someone who's clearly more qualified at something than I am. These forecasters' lives depend ontheir salaries, and they get paid to predict weather. No one stops to think about that, all they care about is what someone said about a given event, and how much more they know because they have a degree (and no job) or .edu at the end of their email. I can't count the number of times OU students I've known have slammed their professors, saying they couldn't teach or relate the material. And in all of those cases, I held the same opinion as I am now - they're pros, they're getting paid and you're not, and that, put bluntly, means shut the f*ck up.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Ok.. enough said... let's keep get the discussion back on track again! 8)

Aaron

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Originally posted by Shane Adams

Since you asked...I wonder how many students remember Howard Bluestein's comment days before April 26, 1991?

Sorry Aaron, this is the only time I'll go off topic on this.... I promise.. what did Howie say the days before then?

I am just curious, I was only in grade school at that time..... but yes.. I do remember April 26th of 91', what a day!

 

[Billy Griffin]

And in all of those cases, I held the same opinion as I am now - they're pros, they're getting paid and you're not, and that, put bluntly, means shut the f*ck up.

Thanks. Nice to know I deserve that for simply making a post.
Nice language too.

 

[Shane Adams]

If the rule is, whoever posts the controversial, slamfest material first is ok, then by all means, I'll start threads instead of replying to them. As long as people start threads with posts like Billy's (6-10 TALK), I will post my replies holding nothing back. You fire a shot, you better expect to have one fired back. I see this continuing downward spiral towards a WX-CHASE mentality on here, it's quite a shame.

 

[JHadorn]

Kids! Let's keep this on topic, yo.

 

[bill mudd]

and back to this weekends panhandle outlook, anyone?