06/10/05 TALK: Central Plains

[Jay McCoy]

I dont like the cloudcover and storms already going in the central and east panhandle. There is clearing out west towrds the new mexico state line where the dryline is. Going to head SW towards hereford and maybe close to clovis to find clear air and the best instability. Storms right now moving almost due north but should be NE later today as they play on the boundaries. Too early for a tornado watch. today may be over by supper time as it forms an MCS and moves into OK/KS.

Good luck everybody

 

[nickgrillo]

I am currently near the KS/OK border heading towards Pampa. I don't know, I kind of have a bad feeling about today. Now that I said that, it will be an outbreak (lol), but I doubt so. It just doesn't look good....

 

[Philip Flory]

Decided to stay home on this one. If something is going to happen, it needs to happen in the next 2-3 hrs in the E TX/NE TX pan/OK Pan before the convective cluster SE of AMA overtakes what instability has developed in a pocket in that area. Current feeling is that we will be looking at a major MCS/cluster by 4 pm. Feel a couple tornadoes are possible early on before cluster forms.

 

[David Wagener]

Current thinking is holding back here around Sayre to Clinton...somewhere in there. With the blob in the panhandle, don't feel that will do much good to help it out there. However, western Oklahoma has been heating pretty good all day with CAPE over 3500 (per SPC MesoAn)...feel something may be able to pop around here. OUN's noon HWO seems to hint at this as well.

We'll see what happens.

 

[bill mudd]

too warn out to do AMA - sittin in Doge city playing the dryline and rotating winds - looks like western OK is clearin out right now fast move so hang on!

 

[Mike Johnston]

Looking over the situation at mid-day, I kind of like the NE portion of the watch box. Satellite shows some vertical development interspersed with clearing in that area (although cirrus blowoff from the TX panhandle threatens to overspread the area with time.) Specifically, counties surrounding Dodge City to the E and S have nice backed surface winds, with 40kt 500mb flow nosing in from the SW, and SB CAPE climbing to 3,000 j/kg just to the south and west. However, really like the prospects for deep layer effective bulk shear, and - a nice thing to see: anvil level SR winds over 50 kts combined w/ very low LCL's, so, storms may be able to root at the surface but have good venting from above for classic mode.

Bill Mudd stationed in Kinsley now, and we will monitor progress of convection already in the area.

EDIT: Good sign - we have our Wisconsin tornado warning, which makes the day official!

 

[Doug Raflik]

Wisconsin has its tornado for the day. AGAIN. In Marathon county... the Harper county of Wisconsin.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARATHON COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN

AT 138 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
FREQUENTLY REACHING THE GROUND AS A TORNADO.

Very frustrating for a wisconsin chaser. We must be pushing close to 20 just in the last week, but they are not very chaseable.

Doug Raflik
[email protected]
http://www.wxnut.net

 

[Billy Griffin]

83 over 68 here in Elk City. Socked in with clouds.
Just have a feeling about the Lubbock area. Maybe some clearing going on down there ???

 

[Jeff Snyder]

currently in Clinton. Dan Dawson and I were going to head northwest to the northern part of the watch, but that area is now socked in with elevated crapvection. OUN is harking on potential for a few strong tornadoes if winds stay southeasterly and we get some sun today, which is happening a bit in southwestern OK. Given that the northern part of the watch box looks hosed due to cloudcover and widespread precip, we're going to hedge south, though shear profiles don't look as impressive down there. Probably going to head west towards Shamr then go from there.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm virtually liking the development down northeast of Marathon, TX. From the cloud action it seems like CINH isn't quite as much of a problem as thought, there's backed winds down there thanks to apparent low pressure on the Mex border (reflection of upper-level energy swinging around the trough axis?), surface heating, and enough CAPE to make it go. FWIW.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

That SW TX storm IS very interesting. It's always been a tough situation there, since the KMAF low tilt is hitting it at a little over 14,000MSL (what's the elevation out there? 6-8KFT?).

Anyway, we can never see what's happening anywhere close to ground level.

That said, it's certain that this storm is causing significant arroyo flooding, though ground truth is very very hard to come by.

 

[David Wolfson]

The satellite presentation on the Marathon storm is pretty impressive now, with an extensive elongated overshoot.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

TOR for woods county...rotation looks broad and the hook is embedded in a mess...however, the rotation is rather strong at the LL

UPDATE---WOW...that was fun to watch. As soon as I got those images up, there was a big divergence signiture out in front of the storm. Talk about crapping out. Also, I went back and put in the storm motion to get the storm relative velocities (forgot I didn't have it on for KVNX)...looked like it was more primed to go outflow dominant than really get rotating. Regardless, best base velocities I've seen all day

 

[David Wolfson]

Doppler TW is out on the Marathon storm, moving SE at 30.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Still in Clinton, which is right along the OFB as noted by the frequent changes in temperature/humidity from cool to warm and muggy. KFDR showing a few 35-45dbz echoes now developing in southwestern OK, moving straight at us. Given the movement, we'll prob just stay put unless we see rapid intensification.

CAPEs via mesoanaly showing 2500-3000+ southeast of the OFB in western Oklahoma. Shear isn't great, but it is increasing in time. Jayton profiler showed a 50kt jet streak near 500mb about an hour ago, so we're hoping that it'll ride up this way and increase the deeplayer shear into better supercell range.