06/10/05 TALK: Central Plains

[John MacKay]

I think this will get it back on topic

MODERATE OUTLOOK ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK

Looks like you panhandle chasers may get a favorable chase. Looks like I'll need to watch out in this area as I am just east of the MDT risk area. I think this will help those from longer distances away on making the decision to come as early as Friday or not.

 

[George Tincher]

Yup, looks like that OUN forecaster may have been far smarter than some were giving him credit for. How often do you see a moderate risk with a 35% probability graphic on a Day 3? I don't ever recall seeing that. It shows they think there is the potential there for something big and confidence is high it will verify.

These big events are often easy to spot a week away. The models seem to be a bit more consistent recently. And with all of them in agreement with run to run consistency, showing there is bigtime potential, I don't think it is at all inapropriate to sound the alarm a few days in advance.

This OUN forecaster who made this call may show us what 25 years experience working at the NWS as a forecaster is all about!

 

[David Drummond]

I hate to be one of those "got a feeling" guys....but I really do have a feeling. I don't know if it comes from living in this area your whole life or what, but sometimes you just "feel" like something is brewing. It's been humid as hell lately out here....like east TX type muggy feeling. Nothing has really happened to eat all that juice up much. A few hailers and a weird SW moving supercell, but nothing grand really. Just days and days of moisture pumping up into the Panhandle/South Plains. Tremendous capes bubbling CU but not breaking the cap. Instability running wild.

We'll see what happens. The panhandle is well overdue for another one of those grand events we used to get with supercells lined up from SW KS to Midland, TX. I remember those days. I'd lie if I said I didn't miss them. :wink:

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I have a feeling too, but maybe it was yesterday's 4 pops, 2 bags of chips, and 2 rice crispy bars(only food eaten). It doesn't feel real well this morning for some reason. Hopefully it has nothing to do with the weather and all the things it requires for an outbreak to happen.

I haven't had much time to look at anything that far ahead. I will say though that reading the forecasters outlook and the day 3 have made me quite happy this morning. I mean it could still be May and instead of complaining about a highly worded outlook we could be complaining about the complainers regarding the crap pattern.

Glancing at the 0z eta I'm not seeing the armegedon for Friday. It certainly looks like a chase day however. Maybe west of AMA on the NM border? That or maybe CO upslope. Probably the latter.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Got a couple of guys coming in from Florida early on Friday to ride along for the chase and will be chasing all weekend (hope to anyway - Mother Nature willing). Now that my son is finally out of school, he's really looking forward to this weekend also.

Air is SO juicy... it looks like a nice weekend for chasing, and I hope some of the forecasts can be a little more clear as the weekend approaches. Sure is nice to see that MOD on the Day 3. Guess I can't recall that too often in the past. Certainly gets everyone excited and optimistic - and hey, a weekend chase... we'll take it! :wink:

Preliminary target: Guymon, OK (offers good north/south options)

 

[brody_clifton]

Got the OK from my boss to take off work Thursday through Wednesday of next week, am leaving NC and heading somewhere in the vicinity of the SW Kansas/CO border to setup shop for Friday. Will likely wait until
late morning Friday to decide on a specific target area, looking for an outflow boundary, dryline buldge, or triple point. Looks to be an active weekend, knocking on wood for no car problems during this vacation

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm happy to see the OUN pm AFD noted my primary concern with Friday and this weekend's events -- tropical development in the Gulf. I've stated my main concern numerous times so far, so I won't elaborate any more. I will just say that I think we'll have severe moisture issues if we see a rapidly-developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf in the next 24 hours.

 

[Dan Dawson]

Yes, the effect of this tropical system may be significant, but will be very tricky to pin down until possibly even the day of the event. The further east it goes in the Gulf, of course, the lesser the impact. Also, keep in mind that tropical cyclones are generally much more compact than synoptic scale extratropical lows. If we had one of those parked over the north Gulf Coast, instead of a TC, I would be much more concerned. It will be very interesting to see what transpires, and how much effect it actually has.

Anyway, I'm a little concerned with the weakening trend in the 500 mb winds over the TX/OK panhandles for Friday. The 18Z Eta continues this trend, and now only has 25 kts or so over most of this area. However, the GFS has been much more consistent in keeping 40 kts at 500 mb over this area, and in fact, I've been quite impressed with the consistency, run after run, of the general placement of the shortwave trough, surface low, and even the precip max it develops by 0Z, for the last several runs. With this in mind, I would tend to lean more heavily toward the GFS. The wind fields below this level, even on the Eta however, still look good, with strong directional shear at least. I think, that at least for Friday's potential severe event, the effects of the approaching tropical cyclone will be minimal.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

On the issue of the TC, there is a large t-storm complex over Honduras that could put an end to our TC, providing it would just have to send a nice cold outflow boundary north towards the surface low. On the other hand if the TC is not snuffed out by Honduras t-storms the surface low should follow up along the waters just west of the Floridian peninsula., and the majority of its convection will be over Florida its self. I don’t think it will be too big of a problem for us on Friday, unless it heads a little west into the middle of the gulf. Lets just cross our fingers and hope that it heads west and loses some of its punch.

 

[Glen Romine]

I'm not sure how much that TC has to do with it - but suspect that SPC will back down a bit from the earlier outlook. Still has potential to be a good svr wx day - but looks fairly ordinary based on the last few runs of the NAM, whereas the GFS solution is much more aggressive. Also - the NAM is horrible with TC systems - so would put more faith in the GFS with regard to those issues - which appears to deal with the TC quite well relative to the TPC guidance, and also appears to have minimal impact on the conditions in the Great Plains. Certainly though, with the moisture transport of the TC, when the main upper level system emerges on Sunday-Monday, there could be some impressive rainfall - and hopefully other effects.....

Glen

 

[Dan Dawson]

The 0Z runs continue the trends of the respective models. The GFS is still aggressive with bringing decent mid-level flow in over the target area by 0Z Saturday, while the Eta continues to show 25-30 kts. These differences appear to stem mostly from the GFS having a slightly deeper trough and a stronger height gradient ahead of it, thus leading to the stronger winds. Again, the solution below 500 mb still appears to be very similar between the 2 models. Even with the Eta's solution, a decent setup may still result, especially if surface winds can back E of the low in the OK panhandle as progged.

 

[John MacKay]

The MDT risk expanded as of the 0800 Day 2 outlook. They now include my area on the MDT risk line, so this may turn into the day I need to go west.

The outlook mentions the possible shortfalls in this forecast such as the NAM being less agressive on the winds in the 500 mb range as well as the tropical system and ongoing convection from Thursday night.

 

[bill mudd]

ok well its friday morning and does anyone like anything in KS? I dont think I can face another long trek to the panhandle, so even a small event would do...currently in Hays recovering from yesterdays event up here....PM if you can now cast (thanks again scott and mike)

 

[John Gnuechtel]

Without going too far into the models and such, I think I'm gonna take a shot at Amarillo and points south. I'm in Dodge now, and it's been storming off and on all night. Actually, I'm kind of surprised at how vigorous it's been. So I figure the outflows are gonna get down there at some point (if they haven't already). Seems like the dynamics will be pretty good down there, but I'm gonna have to haul the mail to avoid getting bitten by early convection.

 

[David Wagener]

Going to leave Norman a bit after noon today and head west to Sayre. Will re-evaluate there on whether to continue in to the panhandle or play the boundary moving through NW Oklahoma. With this early convection, it is going to be difficult to pick a prime spot...but I like the better sunshine in OK.

We'll see what happens. This will be an old school day with a radio, map, and my gut. If anything I'll be happy to see the structure they did yesterday with the storms in NW OK...though I can do with out the baseballs.