02/05/08 FCST: TX,FL,GA,AL,MS,LA,TN,NC,SC,KY,VA,WV

[Shane Young]

Interesting Area

I've been focusing on Louisiana and Arkansas for the last day, especially with that STJ shortwave approaching early... but from a chaser standpoint, one area that really seems to stand out this morning is the area of clearing in NW Arkansas and working off towards the NE.

RUE is 73/61, and as that moisture and heating works further north, I can really envision it meeting up with the front. Helicity looks good, with backed winds and the surface low nearby. The brunt of the forcing should arrive about the perfect time.

Further south, it's all about what focus mechanisms can be found in the region out ahead of the front... and then the beast of a squall line that'll slam through later.

I've always been more interested in having a significant focus mechanism rather than better thermo/kinematics and indistinct initiator.
We'll see how that plays out!

 

[Bill Tabor]

Digital Atmosphere showing altimeter based low @ 29.66 just north of DFW with surface frontogenesis / convergence taking place to the north and east of this feature in se OK quadrant oriented sw/ne. Significant CINH still over this area extending across AR in association with Mlcape; however Sbcape showing an area south of previously mentioned feature uncapped with values up to and above 1000 J/kg.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

From the SPC Mesoanalysis page it appears CINH is almost completely gone in NE Arkansas and SE OK. SBCAPE has also increased to around 1,000 across much of Arkansas and around 1,500 in extreme SE OK. Lifted index, Sig. Torn. Parameters and Supercell Composites have increased as well, esp. in SE OK with Supercell Comp. 8 and STP 3. Very strong 0-1 and 0-3 helicity values are also in place along with low 60 dewpoints in both regions as well. Jonesboro would be a very good place to be right now. I would expect very explosive development once storms get going.

 

[Bill Tabor]

SPC mesoanalysis now showing very strong severe parameters in LA. Per Judging based on Davies' tornado mask I'd expect those features to migrate more heavily into AR as the afternoon / early evening wears on:
http://wxcaster2.com/animate/wxcast...ndhour=12&hrincrement=1&width=961&height=1024

 

[Tony Laubach]

Sitting, or napping as I should say, in northeastern Memphis. I'm about as far west as I want to go and am considering staying put until the show begins on the east side of the river. MD issued about an hour and change ago mentioning possibility of tornado watch.

Meso analysis showing a awkwardly shaped tounge of 1000j/kg CAPE over western Tennessee. Shear remains more than enough over the region as well. Parameters are getting bigger toward the south and rising northward. As mentioned in SPC MD, nothing really to focus storm development, so things are quiet for now aside from a few light storms developing along the river both north and south of town.

Suspiciously quiet right now...