02/05/08 FCST: TX,FL,GA,AL,MS,LA,TN,NC,SC,KY,VA,WV

[Jim Bishop]

This looks like a pretty widespread severe weather event for Louisiana, Eastern Arkansas, Mississippi and Western Tennessee. I'm not going to go into detail, but I would expect numerous tornadoes over the region mentioned, with a couple violent, along with many damaging wind reports.

This is supported by the 50-60 knot south-southwesterly 850mb jet underneath 500mb jet 65-85 knots. In addition, model suggest CAPE 500-1000j/kg across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Arkansas and 250-500 further north. In low-topped supercell cases, you don't need more than 500j/kg CAPE for tornadoes, even violent tornadoes.

Pretty scary situation considering how fast the storms will be moving. The really scary part is the severe threat will continue well into the night time hours over Alabama, middle Tennesse and Kentucky - probably as a very intense squall line with imbedded meso producing tornadoes.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like my target would be NE Arkansas into SE Missouri & MO Bootheel...or basically in that corridor between Little Rock and Poplar Bluff and points northeast (Oil Trough...oh no not again). I am probably sitting this one out...ETA forecasted storm motions are 50 kts. plus and things could be pretty hard for visibility for the most part with pretty low cloud bases. Looks like the strong and possibly violent tornado threat may be closer towards sunset given timing of the strong surface low approach into NE Arkansas. Best of luck to those chasing.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I mean we saw a long track F3 in Wisconsin in CAPE values that barely hit 500j/kg. Sometimes you just never know.

Not entirely true. A RUC derived sounding during the Wisconsin EF3 event yielded 1200 j/kg of SBCAPE.

I digress to the original topic on hand. I MAY head for the MO bootheel or NE AR this evening to be in place for tomorrow, looks too good from an early season standpoint to not give it a shot.

Appears to be a nice zone of upper difluence overspreading this area between 18z and 00z. If this holds on tonights run I be more likely to give this one a shot. Can't really beat the terrain the the bootheel or NE AR.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I'm going to throw my hat in for Super Tuesday as well and be one of the crazies alon for tomorrow's ride.

I'm hopping a midnight flight from Denver tonight and will be leaving out of Atlanta first thing in the morning for SW Tennessee. Figuring I can make Memphis early enough in the afternoon if storms haven't already raced through by that point.

I'm very impressed with the conditions for tomorrow and think we'll see a few notable events before the day ends. Obviously with the storms speeds and not-so-favorable terrain, it'll be a challenge. Low cloud bases with the T/TDs spreads being next to nothing will also make for a challenge. Excellent shear with good CAPE will keep cells sustained for a while, so even with an early initiation, there should be no issues in "missing" the show.

Will follow the show back into Atlanta where I'll be on the first flight home in the morning to get to work on Wednesday.

 

[Danny Neal]

Without completely reiterating what was mentioned already, I said last night in the SC chat that based on those model runs I would target the Cape Girardeau area. Temps pushing 70 in some places with 60 plus Td. Like Tony just said shear will be great and CAPE will be sufficient for Feb standards and terrain/visibility will make for some interesting decision making. Storm motions won't be the most favorable either. If I were going out I would probably hang around Cape G.

 

[Heidi Farrar]

The WRF has certainly slowed things down considerably, which is reflected in the new SPC outlook, wherein the Mod. Risk/ 45% hatched area has been expanded well into AR.

(I hope the following is deemed appropriate for the forecast section - if not I appologize.)

Since I see several of you have pinpointed NE AR as a target area, I thought I would throw this bit of info into the air for anyone who might find it helpful to know.

As almost anyone who has ever chased (or lived) in AR knows, we have sort of an archaic road network. Many if not most of the secondary roads are unpaved (read: gravel/clay), and can pose their own problems during non-severe time (low-water bridges, etc). Since we've had snow two times so far this winter, the most recent being just a few days ago, the unpaved roads across this region are more than likely going to be a disaster, especially in the Ozark region. Potholes are at a maximum, slick ruts, etc. I just thought it might be worth mentioning, as a cautionary for anyone unfamiliar with the area, or for those who just might not have considered this aspect for tomorrow. This is not to say people should think twice about chasing here, just a hopefully helpful bit to think of when planning.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Without regurgitating all the other forecasts... I'm strongly considering hopping into the ol' honda civic and going east on I-40 for tomorrow afternoon's atmospheric melee'. the WRF has slowed down a tad on the advancement of this vortmax ejecting out from the southern plains into the mid Miss. valley. I'm hoping that the area between LIT and MEM will light up between 18Z to 0Z tomorrow (2/5). My concerns are several, rapid storm motions at aprox. 50kts, the column on the forecast soundings off the WRF looks pretty saturated in my target area... I'm suspecting lots of gunge to deal with, what I'm wondering is maybe a dry slot forming in northeast TX and move northeast toward MEM, this could allow for a brief window of opportunity where at least an hour of sunshine could trigger those capes to shoot over 1000g/kg.. I think the chances of some damaging long tracked tornadoes are about 50/50, maybe more so, the more sun we get.

As of now, instability values will be marginal at best because I doubt they'll be much clearing ahead of the squall line for tomorrow... what I really like is the low level shear, in general, helicities up thru 3km. look downright frightening.. this alone will be a major issue with strongly rotating updrafts with the discrete cells that form ahead of the squall line after about 19Z.

As far as the squall line itself... look for several reports of winds in excess of 70kts, hail up to 1.5" in diameter.. and anywhere from 12-25 (separate) confirmed tornado reports from NW LA.. up to the MO. bootheel on into western TN. and the eastern half of Ark. Later that evening, several additional tornado reports are likely around the Huntsville to Nashville area.

If I do this, I'll be out the door within the hour and try to make it to Memphis by midnight and reposition from there tomorrow. If I regain some of my sanity and don't do this, I'll be available for some nowcasting as this unfortunately good be a devastating day for the mid south.

Be safe if you venture out.

Rocky&family

cell phone# 405-226-2996

 

[Adam Lucio]

Ron you stole my target city!

IF I head out [currently trying to convince my partner] I too will probably play the northern extent of the MDT. Ive noticed that sometimes in events like this that the backing winds near the low and south of the warm front can offer an early show. I think anywhere from Frankfrot, KY to SErn MO to Nern AK and Wern TN have a decent shot an early show, before the main explosion takes place in the south.

Im not concerned with the apparent lack of CAPE that far north...what I would be most concerned with is leftover morning convection.

Good luck to those heading out, Im not entirely sure yet if I am going, but I too like the Jackson, TN target. On the way home I can enjoy the night time squall line before driving through winter weather back here in Chicago, would make for a very unique chase!

 

[Brian Emfinger]

the WRF has slowed down a tad on the advancement of this vortmax ejecting out from the southern plains into the mid Miss. valley.

Yeah I agree 100% with that. GFS seems to be slowing it down a bit every run as well. I think theres a pretty good chance that we could luck out with the storms being at their peak between LZK and MEM. That area..especially the eastern half of that area would be the best case scenario as far as terrain and visibility goes.

 

[Jim Cross]

I agree with Brian about southeast missouri. I am targeting the sikeston to poplar bluff area along highway 60. This is a west east highway which i think will give the best chance of staying ahead of any storms that fires over the area. With the speed of the storms i doubt if you would have much chance on a north south road. This area is mostly flat with a few hills towards poplar bluff but not to bad. I will head to Sikeston in the morning and stop there for more data and if need be could drop farther south on 55 towards missouri arkansas border. Good luck to all chasing tomorrow

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Well, this is a big gamble... I'm going for two february's in a row to get tornadoes. I'm hoping to at least get to Little Rock tonight... I'm enthused over the fact the models have slowed down a tad with this system for tomorrow. Here at the farm 5NW of Piedmont, OK. we are at 80F with only a light SW wind. we should have been in a much stronger gradient by now here so there must be something to this slowing down of the system. Call me if you like.
and play it safe as always.. looking forward in seeing some of you other hardcores out there who can't wait for the real season to start.

Rocky&family

 

[cdcollura]

Good evening,

Really tempted on this setup ... Possibly headed out and down I-57 to extreme S IL / SE MO for starts. This is roughly 5 hours from snowy Chicago, but "do able" on a day off work ;-)

The major thing to focus on will be a NE to SW oriented warm / stationary front ... Across which a 30-40 degree temperature gradient may exist. This front should also be fairly stationary as the surface low strengthens.

The fun part will be driving back to Chicago into the cold sector of the storm / blizzard conditions afterwards.

The cons, ofcourse, will be how much instability we get, rapid storm motions, and lousey terrain.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Blake, we might see you around. I'm not sure if we are going to head more towards Pine Bluff or hang back just south of Greenville to give us options around the river. The only concern I have is with the slowing it may be dark before we see the action in Ms which seems to happen quite often.

The latest SREF run looks great for this area painting ML cape between 1000-1500 j/kg, t/td spread will be approximately 77/67, 250 s2m2 0-1, effective shear between 50-60 knt and the severe parameters are reflecting this with sig tor of 4 and sups at 9.

This setup looks great but it wont be an easy chase with the Ms river cutting the prime area in half, high storm speeds and a low deck that destroys the visible cues but hard to complain about a solid set up during the first week of Feb.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Absolutely, the river causes alot of trouble.

The 00z NAM along with a few previous runs have been steadily breaking out convection in in the warm sector well ahead of the boundary.

Kinematically the setup is very potent, but instability, and mesoscale forcing features (differential heating boundaries, outflow boundaries from tonight's convection) are going to be key to targeting out in the open warm sector.

 

[nickgrillo]

I definitely see the potential for a strong tornado or two in the southern IN/KY/TN region tomorrow evening and into the late night. Forecast soundings show SB and MLCAPE maintaining itself and increasing owing to the strong low-level WAA/moist advection - with mechanical mixing owing to the strong boundary layer flow also aiding to keep any real capping inversion to a minimum. Ergo, storm inflow layers will be able to become surface-based - with strong low-level SRH (>250j/kg in the lowest 0-1km AGL) allowing the potential for a strong tornado or two in the area tomorrow. All in all, the overall deep-layer kinematic structure and thermodynamic profiles are supportive of strong and sustained, fast-moving tornadic supercells