05/29/04 FCST: Central Plains

[Tony Laubach]

The NWS in Wichita had this in their HAZ WX Outlook this morning..

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF THE CAP BREAKS OR MORE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING.

I haven't glanced at anything to support this, but if it pans out, it will likely be the last dance for this May-a-Thon I've been on. I usually have pretty good luck on Memorial Day Weekend.. lets just pray gas holds about steady and doesn't rocket in price before then.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Will take up a spot west of Hebron NE now. 500 winds pretty weak, but with the more backed low levels it should be ok. 700 and 850 temps rather high, but you gotta play anyway.

Mike

 

[Jeff Snyder]

NWS OUN has been harking on the possibility of signficant severe wx outbreak in the plains for the past couple of days... Looking at the synoptic setup, there is pretty remarkable similarities between Saturday's setup and May 3rd, 1999. My only concern right now is available moisture, but hopefully we can get widespread 70 tds in ok/ks/s NE by then... Otherwise, looks like a "typical" dryline tornado day, as long as we can break the cap.

 

[Austin Ivey]

OK....Now I'm excited about Sat/Sun.

I'm sure the shtwv/UA disturbance timings will become more clear between now and Sat/Sun. but with a large trough coming out into into the plains in late may (you can't get a much more climatologically favorable timing) I can almost smell an outbreak in the works. Looking at placement of H5 features on the 18z ETA makes me think the major action will be north of the southern plains especially because the CAP will be an issue further south. With the dynamics currently depicted, however, a CAP could be easily overcome. We shall see....

Oh also, thank god for 4 day weekends!!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta7...2hr_300_wnd.gif

Good grief look at the spreading aloft. POP!

 

[Austin Ivey]

Just wanted to draw everyones attention to a possible issue surrounding this weekends possible major event coinciding with Memorial Day holiday.

I was speaking with a veteran chaser on the phone this evening and he reminded me that the SPC outlooks, NWS discussions/forecasts etc. will be toned up this weekend given how large numbers of people will be out and about. In other words, even though the event looks like it could be really good now, the forecast wording for this weekend is likely to seem especially strong or ominous given that the forecasters want the public to be extra aware no matter the actual meteorological outcome.

I'm sure many of you have already thought of this. My whole point I guess is that it might be wise to take some of the professional forecasts from this point forward with a grain of salt.

 

[Dan Cook]

The Day 3 mentions a possible outbreak on Sat.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Saturday still looks great! I'm heading out for Norman tomorrow to meet up with my chase partners who've seen WAY too many tornaodoes without me this week! :wink:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_thet.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...hr_sfc_mslp.gif

 

[Jonathan Merage]

Saturday does look promising! Actually, per the ETA 60 hr forecast that's the only day that shows potential for storms to be more discrete, supercellular in nature. Gotta LOVE that negative tilt!!! Looks at this point like the bulk of the instability will be over NE KS, which coincides well with the highest Td's, lowest LIs, high Theta-E temps (in the mid-80s, at least) & strong low-level jet dynamics. Helicities also look great over that area which, given the way the winds veer strongly with height, makes sense. I really like the way the winds back across the entire area. This also fits the picture, considering the strong pressure falls ahead of the low. Assuming (and hoping) the ETA forecast CAPEs for that day actually verify, Saturday's going to be a big day. I know I'll be out there!
Current target area: Salina
(This will almost certainly shift further east-northeast, but there's a FlyingJ at the exit just east of Salina; that's where I'll make my last data stop before starting the chase.
See everyone out there!
Jon

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm hoping for an outbreak this weekend, however at the same time I'm hoping for a bust. I was supposed to be out in Oklahoma this week and next week, but due to uncontrolable circumstances I'm unable to be down there. I hope I dont miss the big one.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Going OT - sorry admins

But this setup just looks too potent that after returning back to England on Tuesday - and am turning right around and flying out of London tomorrow for just three days of chasing - now thats what I call commitment :wink:

 

[Chris Hayes]

Good for you Stu. I think you should move to Oklahoma/KS/or TX. Might make chase trips a little cheaper. Hope you see the wedge.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

The setup definately looks nice for Saturday, not 100% sure yet on where I want to hang out at for the day but thinking somewhere between ICT and Salina. I'll know for sure Fri. night.

Hope to see some of you out there this weekend! I'll post a picture of my chase vehicle later this evening, so if you see me feel free to stop

 

[Chris Hayes]

If I had to pick a target right now, I would pic Wichita Kansas so I can have access to several major interstates to go NE/SE/or E. I would really like to head down there as it looks like eastern kansas is in trouble over the weekend with capes 0f 2000-4000 and helicities approaching 400 in some areas and dewpoints in the 70s. Its looking interesting.

 

[John Sickels]

When I was younger and didn't have a family to worry about, I would be really looking forward to Saturday here in Eastern Kansas. But I guess I'm getting old, as I'm actually worried rather than excited. We've had several near misses here in Lawrence lately.