11/08/05 FCST: Central Plains/Midwest

  • Thread starter Mike Hollingshead
  • Start date

Mike Hollingshead

A few runs now have been hinting at something linger out there for the Tuesday timeframe. It seems like moisture should have the most hope with this system. The front on Saturday shouldn't slam too hard to the south as that system lifts northeast. This should leave some decent juice in the southern plains.

Here is what the 18z eta is thinking for TDs the day before this event/Monday.


Looking at the progged surface winds from now through Monday this actually isn't too crazy I don't think. Sure it is likely overdoing things some, but I don't know that I think it is going THAT overboard on this one. Mid-60 TDs in ne KS in late Nov has my attention. This is the day before the system comes out too.

500mb flow the day of the event/Tuesday:


80 knot max rounding the base of the broad trough leading to some excellent sw flow in the mid-levels over the sfc boundaries. The system will be strengthening as well. Juice and flow seem to be likely so I think this is worth watching.

Broad area of low pressure/sfc trough(hopefully it'll end up with the cold front lagging any possible dl or sfc trough....no sense getting too crazy over the sfc right now, but it looks hopeful).

Looks like there will certainly be an impressive system for Wednesday, further east. Look what this system is progged to do(with an open gulf mind you).



Hello! Hopefully tonights 0z stuff will be similar.
Looking at the 12z NAM for tuesday, this system could become a player if it holds true. Strong wind fields, t.d.'s in the 60's and CAPE values at 1500-2500(j kg) and a deep trough across Eastern Kansas should produce some significant severe weather across the area (at least I would think so.) :)