02/05/08 FCST: TX,FL,GA,AL,MS,LA,TN,NC,SC,KY,VA,WV

Well, this is a big gamble... I'm going for two february's in a row to get tornadoes. I'm hoping to at least get to Little Rock tonight... I'm enthused over the fact the models have slowed down a tad with this system for tomorrow. Here at the farm 5NW of Piedmont, OK. we are at 80F with only a light SW wind. we should have been in a much stronger gradient by now here so there must be something to this slowing down of the system. Call me if you like.
and play it safe as always.. looking forward in seeing some of you other hardcores out there who can't wait for the real season to start.:D

Rocky&family
 
Good evening,

Really tempted on this setup ... Possibly headed out and down I-57 to extreme S IL / SE MO for starts. This is roughly 5 hours from snowy Chicago, but "do able" on a day off work ;-)

The major thing to focus on will be a NE to SW oriented warm / stationary front ... Across which a 30-40 degree temperature gradient may exist. This front should also be fairly stationary as the surface low strengthens.

The fun part will be driving back to Chicago into the cold sector of the storm / blizzard conditions afterwards.

The cons, ofcourse, will be how much instability we get, rapid storm motions, and lousey terrain.
 
Blake, we might see you around. I'm not sure if we are going to head more towards Pine Bluff or hang back just south of Greenville to give us options around the river. The only concern I have is with the slowing it may be dark before we see the action in Ms which seems to happen quite often.

The latest SREF run looks great for this area painting ML cape between 1000-1500 j/kg, t/td spread will be approximately 77/67, 250 s2m2 0-1, effective shear between 50-60 knt and the severe parameters are reflecting this with sig tor of 4 and sups at 9.

This setup looks great but it wont be an easy chase with the Ms river cutting the prime area in half, high storm speeds and a low deck that destroys the visible cues but hard to complain about a solid set up during the first week of Feb.
 
Absolutely, the river causes alot of trouble.

The 00z NAM along with a few previous runs have been steadily breaking out convection in in the warm sector well ahead of the boundary.

Kinematically the setup is very potent, but instability, and mesoscale forcing features (differential heating boundaries, outflow boundaries from tonight's convection) are going to be key to targeting out in the open warm sector.
 
I definitely see the potential for a strong tornado or two in the southern IN/KY/TN region tomorrow evening and into the late night. Forecast soundings show SB and MLCAPE maintaining itself and increasing owing to the strong low-level WAA/moist advection - with mechanical mixing owing to the strong boundary layer flow also aiding to keep any real capping inversion to a minimum. Ergo, storm inflow layers will be able to become surface-based - with strong low-level SRH (>250j/kg in the lowest 0-1km AGL) allowing the potential for a strong tornado or two in the area tomorrow. All in all, the overall deep-layer kinematic structure and thermodynamic profiles are supportive of strong and sustained, fast-moving tornadic supercells
 
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Something that has me very interested is the IR image currently. There are clouds to the north of Greenville attm, and if this becomes a well defined cloud layer edge, it could set up a very significant differential heating boundary running from around Alexandria, LA to just north of Jackson, MS.

http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/regional/southcentral-ir.gif

This could prove to be a nice mesoscale lifting mechanism and could pool moisture.

Obviously if it's clear, instability will be greater, and therefore one would target in the area receiving greater insolation. But playing near, but south of, the cloud deck is what my line of thinking is right now.
 
I'm leaning towards a northern target, and not because I'm geographically biased because I'm not able to chase tomorrow.

I won't hash out all the details here because I already wrote up a quick forecast on my blog here:

http://prairiestorm.blogspot.com/

Read if you want, but it more or less says that I'm leaning towards the southern Illinois and Indiana area, possibly into nothern Kentucky or far SE Missouri for a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon. I think areas further south will see more embedded supercell type storms with less of a tornado threat, and certainly MUCH less chance for visible tornadoes. While chasing there may seem fun, I'd just assume head to southern IL where terrain is better and I believe more discrete supercells will occur, possibly in several rounds. If I were chasing, I'd set a target of Salem, Illinois.

I'll be busy the entire day so I likely won't even be able to follow the event, but good luck to any who do chase.
 
This event is somewhat similar to 2/24/07, at least on the southern end. Both are high end dynamic systems, both had td's in the mid 60's spread over the arklatex north towards I-40, both are February systems, the moderate risk areas are similar in location but the area today is larger. Today's models are showing a pacific cold front could overtake the convection out in front near the Ms river, the same happened on 2/24/07. The low is a little farther to the north and the warm sector is much larger and goes much farther north for today's systems but I figured it was close enough for a mention.

2/24/07 Day one outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070224_1630.html

2/24/07 Storm Reports
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/070224_rpts.html

2/24/07 Radar archive loop SHV
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=SHV

2/24/07 Radar archive loop JAN
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DGX

2/24/07 radar archive loop LZK
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LZK

Several things I remember about that day is we never got the clearing and never reached the max forecasted cape. I also remember the storms started firing in N La in the trees while I tried to wait for the storms to come to me in the better terrain in Se Ar.
 
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The last run of the RUC is interesting. This morning it brings that line of convection in IN/IL/OH a lot further south than expected before - south of the Ohio river by afternoon. It's also showing nothing east of the Mississippi by 4PM -everything back on the OK/AR border.
 
Good day all,

Just called off the day for work and getting ready to head out. I will be headed down I-57 into extreme S Illinois and probably play aound by afternoon near SE MO / S IL / NE AR / W TN region (near I-55 and I-57 junction) and adjust from there.

The driving force of this target is the NE - SW oriented warm front that should be active most of the day, before the real show starts as the cold front catches up with it by evening. The temperature gradient with this warm front in southern Illinois goes from 36 F to 65 F over a less-than 100 mile NW to SE distance!!

Any storm becoming anchored on this boundary will have great forcing and horizontal vorticity to work with in an already highly sheared environment. The RUC also brings CAPE from 500 to as high as 1000. Clearing is also occurring well south of this area as well, so any air flowing northward should be de-stabilized farther.

Meanwhile, both 500 MB and 300 MB show an impressive di-fluent flow and a jet stream fom the WSW approaching 120 Knots at times. Low level jet is at least 80 Knots from the SSW. Again, storm motions should be the biggest issue, and terrain.

I am not passing up these big setups this year ... By May, it can be all gone ;-)
 
ECMWF develops a small convergence zone in the warm sector across AR this afternoon...I would head somewhere between Monticello and Pine Bluff, AR - assuming I wanted to chase!

EC breaks a few storms out ahead of the CF, but quickly lines stuff up on the CF as it surges eastwards. Thoughts with the people in that area today.
 
Landed in Atlanta about 5:30am and was on the road about an hour after that. Grabbing a McDs breakfast in Birmingham, AL on my way up Hwy 78 to Memphis where my initial target lies. I'll drift west from there once I arrive and can get a btter handle on the current situation. No surprise on the high risk given the conditions floating around. Be anxious to see how it all plays out in the coming hours.
 
I personally feel the best area for violent, long track tornadoes will be from extreme Southeast Oklahoma/Northeast Texas into the Southwest half of Arkansas. The unfortunate thing is that's HORRIBLE chase country.

Another great region is ahead of the surface low along the warm front from extreme northeast Arkansas to Southeast Missouri. Finaly, cell should fire from warm advection from the 850 jet near the Mississippi river south of Memphis.

The interesting thing about this setup is all three regions have the ability to produce violent tornadoes. Wow, it's going to be a long day and night for NWS mets...
 
Brandon Lawson said:
ROFL, someone didn't get any sleep. ;)

We're also heading east on I-40 about to cross the OK/AR border. Our target area is the geographic center of the high risk.
Click to expand...

Wow, I was about to say - west on I-40 from OUN??? I guess you'd get a good steak, eventually...

Well, we had the potential to take time off work today to chase but instead I opted to sit here at my desk at work, with an internet connection, IN the high-risk area, in my hometown. Can't get much better than that, LOL. Considering that today's mode of convection looks iffy and it could turn out to be a mess (although a very dangerous, tornadoey mess), we decided to sit tight at work.

This system hung back so far I can barely believe it. What started out as a MOD risk in TN and points east turned out the next day to be a high risk in my state this morning. Problem is that the upper-energy that we so need is apparently very shy, and all models are fairly consistent with not kicking out the upper level trough until the 0Z-08Z Wed timeframe, in the dark. Welcome to AR in early February......please remember to buckle up for safety. ;)

AR has remained capped throughout the overnight hours and according to the ETA-NAM and RUC the real cooling aloft in association with this powerful system will not overspread the region until after 21Z. This makes for a likelihood of having the "real" storms forming sometime late afternoon along the OK/AR border and then rocketing northeast. The big question will be whether or not we manage to see discrete cells develop out ahead of any squall line that develops. With the CINH in place throughout most of the day this could be unlikely - but boy, if something did manage to develop out ahead of things it would have to be watched like a hawk for big-time tornado potential.

I cannot define a target area right now as things are still too broad. Where I am sitting currently is as good as any until data and storms sharpen up later in the day - although I do feel that the junk ongoing in NWrn AR is of no interest to me and I wouldn't be concerned about it if I were out in the field chasing today. Much better to hurry up and sit tight and wait for the real show sometime from mid-afternoon onwards. Either way - it looks like an exciting day for severe in my state - at last! :D

Good luck to Tony and all who are frequenting AR today and welcome to the hill country.

KL

EDIT: Here's some interesting wording in SPC's MCD that's out for areas of NW AR, although I fail to recall any rotating cells that we have seen already this morning - anybody???
"POTENT VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MID LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY
EVIDENT WITH STORMS W OF FSM. AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO LOW 70S
MLCAPES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. "
 
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I'm now casting for my chase partner Adam Lucio, his original was around Cairo, IL. Now has moved a little more west into MO, towards Poplar Bluff. Which is right on the lee side of the Ozarks. I don't really want to send him into the Ozarks, very bad chase area like SW WI! Going to go back to get some more sleep and get the new day one when it comes out.
 
Karen, I completely agree with that and your skepticism. I am not going to head too far out ahead of the frontal stuff till I am more sure about things further E. You guys who head way way down there early might be looking at nothing till late of course like Karen said...if something does develop out there watch out. BTW for those chasing today...heres a preview of things to come as far as visibility goes (from the strong storm near Ozark a few minutes ago).

020508001.jpg
 
Justin E. Reed said:
Check with the SPC site, they clearly have stated they are going to issue a Tornado Wacth shortly. I'm concerned about this today, clearly stated that it is Super Tuesday. Its still relatively cloudy over much of the area of concern though, but I'm sure alot of it will burn off somewhat during the morning hours. Its also breezy over much of Arkansas, most stations reporting mid to upper 20's gusts. If I had tomorrow off, I would've set up in Middle Tennessee to catch the evening and overnight storms. I can see a few tornadoes there, but more of a damaging wind event near Nashville.
Click to expand...
If you actually go back and read the MCD, it stated that a Tornado Watch was likely by 14Z. 14Z has come and gone and no tornado watch. The storms in SE OK are still elevated. Additionally, strongest ascent is still southwest of the region.

Edit: Since the MCD in question is no longer in effect, here is the direct link to its contents: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0152.html
 
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I'm currently in Russellville ARK. Capping issues overnight has precluded the convective gunge I anticipated for this area... a good thing if you want to see some atmospheric mayhem... a real bad thing for these residents in Ark. My initial target for now is in the Little Rock/Pine Bluff to Brinkley/Helena area of eastern Ark. by 23Z... further west will be good too but poor chase territory. With some sun today for these areas until early/mid afternoon.. capes will easily exceed 1000g/kg.. that along with extreme low level shear.. what discrete cells form ahead of the squall line will be downright scary.

I could use some nowcasting if you have time... my cell: 405-226-2996.
 
I have been studying things and the strongest LL shear seems to be focused up in extreme NE Arkansas into SE Missouri/MO Bootheel into W.Kentucky. I am banking on this area to be the day's hot spot at least initially. One can never ignore the notorious past of White & Jackson Counties either. Looks like the surface theta ridge should poke northward as the day progresses...right up the Mississippi Valley. For some reason...I am having flashbacks to Jan. 21, 1999 another similar high risk day. Only this time I am at my desk and not behind the wheel on I-40.
 
I should clarify me earlier post. There is some pretty decent ascent well north of the area as well. This is most likely being enhanced by a lead shortwave that is somewhat evident on area profilers.

It does appear that the next "round" of ascent is beginning to reach NC TX. However, storm motions appear to take any developing convection north of the cold front pretty quick.

It might be time to break off a NOW thread
 
Interesting Area

I've been focusing on Louisiana and Arkansas for the last day, especially with that STJ shortwave approaching early... but from a chaser standpoint, one area that really seems to stand out this morning is the area of clearing in NW Arkansas and working off towards the NE.

RUE is 73/61, and as that moisture and heating works further north, I can really envision it meeting up with the front. Helicity looks good, with backed winds and the surface low nearby. The brunt of the forcing should arrive about the perfect time.

Further south, it's all about what focus mechanisms can be found in the region out ahead of the front... and then the beast of a squall line that'll slam through later.

I've always been more interested in having a significant focus mechanism rather than better thermo/kinematics and indistinct initiator.
We'll see how that plays out!
 
Digital Atmosphere showing altimeter based low @ 29.66 just north of DFW with surface frontogenesis / convergence taking place to the north and east of this feature in se OK quadrant oriented sw/ne. Significant CINH still over this area extending across AR in association with Mlcape; however Sbcape showing an area south of previously mentioned feature uncapped with values up to and above 1000 J/kg.
 
From the SPC Mesoanalysis page it appears CINH is almost completely gone in NE Arkansas and SE OK. SBCAPE has also increased to around 1,000 across much of Arkansas and around 1,500 in extreme SE OK. Lifted index, Sig. Torn. Parameters and Supercell Composites have increased as well, esp. in SE OK with Supercell Comp. 8 and STP 3. Very strong 0-1 and 0-3 helicity values are also in place along with low 60 dewpoints in both regions as well. Jonesboro would be a very good place to be right now. I would expect very explosive development once storms get going.
 
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Sitting, or napping as I should say, in northeastern Memphis. I'm about as far west as I want to go and am considering staying put until the show begins on the east side of the river. MD issued about an hour and change ago mentioning possibility of tornado watch.

Meso analysis showing a awkwardly shaped tounge of 1000j/kg CAPE over western Tennessee. Shear remains more than enough over the region as well. Parameters are getting bigger toward the south and rising northward. As mentioned in SPC MD, nothing really to focus storm development, so things are quiet for now aside from a few light storms developing along the river both north and south of town.

Suspiciously quiet right now...
 
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