05/29/04 FCST: Central Plains

[Chad Ringley]

As Kevin pointed out, isallobaric forcing will be aiding us fairly significantly on Saturday. Couple that with full insolation and weak convergent flow along the dryline...should be enough to break the cap as far south as North Central Oklahoma, perhaps even farther south into Central/South Central OK. I also believe a stronger cap on a day like this is a good thing...keep things more focused, and even a little more discrete. As long as it isn't too strong, of course

Mid level flow is progged to be a bit weaker in the past few model runs...but that's not really too much of a concern as it still is more than sufficent. Do think the ETA is too aggressive on mixing out the surface Td's (as usual), and thus, I also think instability is a bit underforecast.
Gotta love the negative tilt to the trough this late in the season, most certainly does bring back thoughts of the 4/26/91 outbreak synoptically, though this setup is nowhere near as potent......

Liking the area from Salina down to ICT/OK border...and perhaps even farther south, depending on cap strength. Man, those 12z RAOBS and special 18z's tomorrow are going to be as hot an item as burgers this weekend Good luck to all those chasing!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Call me the eternal optimist, but the way the cap is eroding in every new model run in Western Oklahoma, and the way the wind fields are set up. And the way...well you get the picture. I'm chasing Western Oklahoma. OUN says it best:

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT CREATE A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS...BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT.

I just hope they stay out of populated areas, but that's unavoidable sometimes when you get a big day like tommorow.

 

[Billy Griffin]

I'm with you Chris !!

After four consecutive days of driving back and forth from near Amarillo to Beatrice, NE, it's time for something a little (a lot) closer to home !!!

I hope and pray the dryline gets cranking, but not too much.

A few isolated cells in western/north-central Oklahoma would be so nice !!

I'll be out there tomorrow - targe area initially (today) is Enid, OK. Good N~S roads to get north if needed.

 

[John Diel]

Saturday for me

Looking at the NWS/SPC collections and UCAR models, everything still looks to be north of the Kansas line, though I am liking the cap in NC OK. I will be remaing fairly local to the Ponca City area this time around as I will hopefully be reporting to a local radio station as well as getting in some photography. If I can keep cell service working, then I should be OK.

Good luck to all!

John Diel

 

[mikegeukes]

Latest Day 2 is out.
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS...ERN
NEB...EXTREME ERN SD...SWRN MN...THE WRN HALF OF IA...AND NWRN MO...

Mike

 

[Bill Hark]

I am getting concerned about this alleged severe weather outbreak. Looking at the 12 Z ETA, I like the CAPE busseye of up to 4500 over NW KS, SW IA and NW MO. There are also SRH's of 200-300 over that area. Unfortunately, by 18Z surface analysis, the best backed winds are eastern IA, MN and NE SD. On precip, there is only light precipitation across SE NE, and NE KS and a light band across northern KS. The windflow is alos sllightly weak at 500. Although I was initially considering Wichita to Salina, I am now considering points farther east . MAybe even Omaha. I'd like to see some more model runs. Of course, a target area woon't be picked until saturday's soundings and surface analysis.

Bill Hark

 

[Billy Griffin]

I notice that OUN has taken the "significant severe weather outbreak" out of the text content in the latest HWO. Still mentions "if" storms can break cap, they will be significant however.

I'm still going to keep my hopes up for Oklahoma. Good luck to everyone who chases up north !! The budget just won't allow another 1500 mile excursion.

Large isolated wedge tornadic cell near KS/OK line would be on my wish list for tomorrow. We'll see.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I believe the reasoning for that is that the cells will be very isolated in nature, and a widespread outbreak is not going to happen. But where there are storms, they're gonna do some pretty severe things. At least, that's what I'm taking from the latest HWO from OUN.

 

[Matthew Havin]

FYI 18Z ETA has low bottoming out at 0Z tomorrow over NW KS at 986mb.

986.

I hope that verifies.....

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Still looking up... found this interesting (in the pm update of OUN's AFD):

"THIS LEAD WAVE COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME EARLY ACTIVITY
TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD LAY DOWN BOUNDARIES FOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IF STORMS DEVELOP NEAR DRYLINE AND FEED ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WATCH OUT."

Looking at 0z Data... WOW! ETA puts a small 500mb jet max along the I35 corridor from OKC-ICT at 0z... 0-3k helicity progs still forecast >300 east of I-35, and ETA indicates weaker capping west and north of Tulsa. Additionally, the 0z run DOES NOT mix out the 70 Tds in OK, at least northcentral and northeastern OK, tomorrow, which yields much better CAPE and lower LCLs. So.. from this 0z run, my two main previous concerns -- weak 500mb flow and 60 Tds -- are now gone.... ASSUMING the 0z ETA verifies!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Must check this out:

".UPDATE...
FOR MEDIA - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...
PRESENTLY COORDINATING WITH SPC ON NEW DAY ONE OUTLOOK. I WILL LIKELY SEND UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS HEADS UP SOON. RISK AREAS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE ELEVATED BASED ON NEW 00Z DATA."

-- 10:45pm OUN AFD

Looks to be high-end mdt, more likely high risk for tomorrow... Certainly justified given the two caveats (weak midlevel flow and only 60 tds) have been taken care of according to the new 0z ETA ,which has a nice 500 jet streak along the I35 corridor and 70 TDs in OK..

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Okay, got a look at the 0Z runs and the dryline is further west and punching in more southerly than the last run, so obviously it would be wise to shift the target south and west from here. This isn't a big shock since we see Day 2 moderates get pulled back west all the time as the models typically eject sytems too early 48 hours out.

I think the wind fields are fine. The wind fields in north central Kansas and even southeastern Nebraska are more than sufficient for tornadic supercells, in my opinion. With low LCL's, I'm not overly concerned with deep layer shear anyway. 0-1km shear is where I look for low level mesos and tornadoes. Long lived tornadoes or cyclic supercells--then yeah, I'd like better than 30 knots deep layer. But overall the hodo looks fine to me. It's no bell ringer like the 22nd or 24th, but Oklahoma and the barely- backed winds don't make that class either. I think those two days up here were the best setups of the year and all this hype about tomorrow is some kind of weird afterglow--LOL.

All I care about is getting northeast of the dry punch and in the easterly surface flow to get some point convergence. In the morning, I'll throw all this model data out the window and start interrogating the obs for pressure falls, dryline movement, upper disturbances along the jet etc. If the 0Z ETA verified precisely, I'd target Belleville, KS.

Amos in Beatrice, NE

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The charts do not require deep pontification...this has the potential to be a widespread, significant severe outbreak, barring anything unforeseen. Large/destructive/cyclic tornadoes are difficult to predict more than a few hours in advance, so we will just have to wait and see how the mesoscale evolves during the morning.

My quick and dirty guess, based mostly on the 00Z eta, is the ICT area down to just north of OKC will have the highest risk for significant tornadoes. At the very least, scattered supercells should form over a very large area.

I'll try to get an update out in the morning, if time permits.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Good evening Stormtrackers!

After some fancy footwork with local grocery stores and check cashing to get ahold of money I technically wouldn't see til Tuesday, I am ready for one final May road trip.

Tomorrow morning, I'll get up and be on the road no later than 5am MDT making a dash for my initial target of Salina, KS. I'm hoping to pull into the WiFi Hotspot off I-70 in Salina no later than 1pm CDT to get a final check of things to make a determination whether I head north towards Nebraska or south towards Wichita/Oklahoma.

Going to get a few hours of quick sleep and head out first thing in the morning, arriving in Limon in time to see the sun rise. This will be the last hurrah in my May-a-thon, so hopefully it'll end on a high note. Lets just hope things stay away from those who aren't wanting to see this like we are.

Sleep fast gang!
Tony

 

[Jeff Snyder]

HIGH RISK

A little heads up before the official issuance of the 6z Day 1 -- HIGH RISK FOR NC OK AND NORTHWARD!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/products/graph.../graphicast.php

http://kamala.cod.edu/ok/latest.flus44.KOUN.html

Repeating, the SPC has issued a *HIGH RISK* valid Saturday afternoon through evening for portions of northcentral OK and points northward (LOL couldn't resist doing my NWR voice)