Gabe Garfield
EF5
Whoa...
I'm not exactly sure why the Day 3 probabilistic outlook only has 25%....and not even hatched. LOL. The text doesn't seem to match the rather heavy wording. It cracks me up how matter-of-fact Thompson's tone is in the discussion...it's like he is writing"Well, the model forecasts show 'Day After Tomorrow' conditions will develop in the southern and central plains. Mutliple wedges are likely, including a few wedges side by side..." while yawning. :lol:
Moving on...
What already appeared to be a very potent weather situation has become increasingly more ominous with the 18z ETA run. It stacks up like this:
Synoptic Setup:
Negatively tilted longwave trough
Surface low in SW to WC Kansas
Warm front extending NE into N. Kansas and SE Nebraska.
"Cold front" (not much of one) extending SW from the low into Colorado
Dryline extending south from surface low into W. Oklahoma and W. N. Texas
Instability:
Dewpoints - Upper 60s-Low 70s (perhaps even mid-70s) over the S. and C. Plains.
SBCAPE - 2500-3500 j/kg over the S. and C. Plains (most likely much higher..being conservative here)
Wind Shear:
Surface - SSE-SE at 15-20 kts
850 mb - S at 40-55 kts (00z run had up to 45 kts)
700 mb - SW at 40 kts
500 mb - WSW at almost 40 kts (it will likely be better if we can get a decent s/w)
250 mb - WSW at 70-75 kts
Convective Inhibition:
CINH less than -50 j/kg along and east of the dryline and locally down to 0 j/kg.
Synoptically speaking, this is the type of weather situation that I would draw on my notebook paper when I got bored in class....in other words, the perfect system. Of course, this isn't that yet...but it has the potential to get very bad across the central United States on Saturday.
Gabe
I'm not exactly sure why the Day 3 probabilistic outlook only has 25%....and not even hatched. LOL. The text doesn't seem to match the rather heavy wording. It cracks me up how matter-of-fact Thompson's tone is in the discussion...it's like he is writing"Well, the model forecasts show 'Day After Tomorrow' conditions will develop in the southern and central plains. Mutliple wedges are likely, including a few wedges side by side..." while yawning. :lol:
Moving on...
What already appeared to be a very potent weather situation has become increasingly more ominous with the 18z ETA run. It stacks up like this:
Synoptic Setup:
Negatively tilted longwave trough
Surface low in SW to WC Kansas
Warm front extending NE into N. Kansas and SE Nebraska.
"Cold front" (not much of one) extending SW from the low into Colorado
Dryline extending south from surface low into W. Oklahoma and W. N. Texas
Instability:
Dewpoints - Upper 60s-Low 70s (perhaps even mid-70s) over the S. and C. Plains.
SBCAPE - 2500-3500 j/kg over the S. and C. Plains (most likely much higher..being conservative here)
Wind Shear:
Surface - SSE-SE at 15-20 kts
850 mb - S at 40-55 kts (00z run had up to 45 kts)
700 mb - SW at 40 kts
500 mb - WSW at almost 40 kts (it will likely be better if we can get a decent s/w)
250 mb - WSW at 70-75 kts
Convective Inhibition:
CINH less than -50 j/kg along and east of the dryline and locally down to 0 j/kg.
Synoptically speaking, this is the type of weather situation that I would draw on my notebook paper when I got bored in class....in other words, the perfect system. Of course, this isn't that yet...but it has the potential to get very bad across the central United States on Saturday.
Gabe