05/20/04 FCST: High Plains and Midwest

[Tony Laubach]

Only real reason I am starting this thread is cause I am heading home from my mini-vacation today and SPC has pegged a 5% tornado risk in NE Colorado, so maybe I'll get lucky and bag something coming home! However, with that in mind, I also remember SPC's hatched 15% area from yesterday, so won't hold my breath! :lol:

 

[Tim Jones]

Good luck Tony. Hope you bag something. I'm sitting this one out today.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Today in CO looks better than yesterday ever did, in my opinion. I never saw what the lift was supposed to be besides that surface trough-ish confluence which had failed once already the day before.

Today we have serious lift, great moisture for the front range and strong upper level support. Myself, Scott Eubanks, and the Weathervine crew are currently racing west on 80 to make the front range--a long shot for sure, but better than another wasted day up here in the grunge.

Sterling or bust! (actually I'd like to get south of Sterling, but have to be realistic about how far we are)

 

[Bill Hark]

I'm sitting in Des Moines checking data and I am not as impressed with NE Colorado. Although the predicted shear is great and winds will be backed (if you believe the 12Z RUC), the 700 mb temps are 10 for most of Colorado and that area expands northward by 00Z. I don't think the ap will break but good luck to those who play NE Colorado.

Bill Hark

 

[David Draun]

It is now 73/72 in Chicago. It needs to get to 88F before surface-based convection can initiate. That number falls later to around 80F, and the LCL and LFC both end up under 1000m. I'm betting a slow moving squall line along the coldfront with damaging wind/hail and the possibility of small spin-ups on the outflow and tail-end storms. Then a heavy rain producing MCS will dump rain where its not needed.

 

[Joel Wright]

The steadfast cap is finally going to give way to some nice activity in IA later this afternoon. As SPC points out some evaporation from some weak elevated activity will help to erode the cap even more. Once surface based storms erupt later this afternoon it's just going to go ballistic. The question is, how soon will these storms organize into a line or MCS? There's probably going to be a lot of multi-cell activity with large hail before the organization occurs. Although with this much CAPE and LI's near -10, a little bit of shear, and a boundary which hopefully could maximize shear a bit.....it's possible that any storm that can stay discrete long enough could drop a rope. South-central IA just north of OTM would be a nice target in this area I think. This area will be close to the boundary and should be just in front of the initiation zone...Good luck to all, whether you're in Colorado or anywhere.

 

[David Draun]

Now 82/75 at Ohare! :shock: MCS issued to the west. Now, a 5% tornado potential. Just need some more insolation and BOOM! There it is. Increasing clear sky to the west. We only need 84F to get things going here. HWO mentions supercells from I-88 southward. Definitely getting interesting :?:

 

[Dan Robinson]

We are sitting here at a library in Norton, Kansas looking at data. Right now looking at the Burlington, CO area for a target today. RUC is breaking out precip late this afternoon, plus a spike of decent SRH in a few hours. Some high clouds west of the line of SHRA/TSRA in W KS now, hopefully they will still allow for some heating west of here. CAPE isn't too impressive and as Bill mentioned, we have the pesky 700MB temps AKA cap city.

Good luck to anyone out today, if you see us stop and say hello. Hoping for at least a nice sculpted updraft and some nice lightning today.

 

[Jacki Earnest]

80/72 here in Davenport..... moisture convergence getting better, and capes nearing 5000 at the MO/IA border... Im ready to go as soon as it'll all initiate! Looks like it will a little later on... I'm confident there is a good threat for large hail which such incredible energy, and I think the 5% SPC TOR risk is warranted. I cant wait! Latest satellite showing some broken clouds, but clearer near the area of highest instability... still plenty of heating and per the 1131 SPC MD...Im sure we will definately get some action going here. Maybe today will prove the "Davenport hole" will break!! And by the way if it busts today, I will officially swear Im leaving Davenport as soon as my current lease is up!

 

[Cstok]

I am sitting in St. Joseph MO getting wifi data (nice!) and am going to head north to Osceola Iowa area. I will update when I get there if I can get connected.

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Well, I am sitting at my in-laws house which is about 45 miles to the SW of Burlington, CO.

It's going to have to start to warm up a little quicker. The sun finally broke through the clouds about an hour ago and it's just starting to warm. We've had winds out of the east all morning, wouldn't mind seeing them slide to the SSE.

I'll be headed to Stratton or farther west if things begin to build. The sky certainly looks like it could give way this afternoon.

Tim

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Storms in CO and NM

Better check your charts and radar screens. Theres a few strong storms developing in CO and NM. The one in NM is really impressive on the visible satellite and on NWS radar too. 8) LJK.