New chasing method; critiques and rebukes wanted!

[Darrin Rasberry]

No kidding, all I got on my to do/reminder list is to make sure I behave myself enough the night before (Learned that lesson after chasing the day after my 21st) and to make sure I got more than enough in the bank account (also directly tied to behaving myself the night before). I'll watch the models and try to plan where to be and what not, but most of the time its all pretty pointless and just for something to do, as most of the time I just have a general broad area pinpointed and the finite details change continuously the day of anyway. The only thing I really worry about Pre-chase is to make sure I'm able to be early to my target area, I have a horrible problem with wanting to be out the door super early on chase days, but when your out the door early you have time to do everything you have scheduled for day 2 and day 3, and my to do list on day 1 is merely to have fun and not die...

Actually I agree with your sentiments here, Dustin/Shane. It was reading Shane's blog last summer that really inspired me to stop being so dependent on the science and start getting back to loving the storms and the plains that house them. I was spending so many hours looking through model forecasts and trying to make sense of them, and when I flunked a forecast, all that wasted time caused me to not enjoy chases that could've still been fun under other presuppositions.

What I outlined is a way to trim the work. And I think you do address a good point with the area targeting. A very brief summary would be:

1) Look at the SPC for Day 3+, that's it. Pick out a broad area where you're thinking you could go if you're gonna be able to chase it. Broad area could mean "somewhere from OKC to Topeka."
2) Look at the SPC for Day 2, look at some local NWS reports for your target area, look at how tomorrow's system behaves today. Cut the area a bit ("OKC to Wichita," to continue the example) and take off if you need to shack up for a night closer to it.
3) Rest up, eat breakfast, scrawl out the features by hand and pick out some interesting things, and go to where your experience, knowledge, and gut tell you based on what you see and what you gather from all the other chaser/NWS forecasts. Narrow down further ("somewhere around Guthrie," for example) and be there early (good point about what to do if you're way early BTW Dustin).
4) Don't be a screwball while in the actual chase. Rely, in order of precedence, on (a) eyes, (b) gut, (c) others, (d) computer. Use what you know about the day's details and from the local terrain/road system to get your storms while staying out of a mess.
5) ???
6) Fun and profit.

I'm actually a bit shocked to not see anything about relying too much on the SPC. It's a little bit lazy, I admit, but save for a notable botch or two they did pretty good this year IMO. I mean, if you've studied up enough to know what their writeup says, then eh, why not?

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

I have one suggestion for improving your forecasting skills. Make a forecast on your own before you look the SPC, NWS, storm track or other forecast. If you do this one simple thing you will learn a lot faster. You can always adjust your forecast after seeing what other have to say. But if you read their forecasts first you will have a bias in your forecast that can cause you to miss important details.

If I am in a rush I’ll look at the SPC graphics without reading the text to get an idea of what they think the potential is. If I read the text it is always after I have looked at current conditions and model forecast.

This is what I'm planning to do for Day 1, actually, so I can approach it without biases to distort things I see based on authority, so to speak. If I'll get a map of my own finished up first before SPC and Stormtrack-checking, though, I'll be more inclined to look critically instead of jumping at accepting differences in those forecasts from my own, since they would have to run into my pride at that point

Maybe you can do this for Day 2 as a way of discovering possible areas the outlook ends up overlooking, but in this case that's why I play the local NWS forecasts. The only reason I'd do it is to prepare for the possibility for a longer drive the next day if better setups materialize elsewhere. As far as Day 3+, though, I think preforecasting of this sort is not useful for chasing for the most part (although it may be useful for a weatherman or local NWS forecaster).

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

One of the most simple and helpful means of obtaining crucial information that I've found is right here. I greatly respect certain members forecast and intuitions especialy on chase day. Alot of times I miss things that are right under my nose that get pointed out in a forecast thread.

I agree. I make no bones about using SPC, local WFOs and ST for my strategic choices. All of these organizations/groups have more experience and more importantly more time than I do to forecast. I made the decision that to ramp up my knowledge would require major life-and work-style choices that would not be attractive in a cost-benefit comparison.

So I: a) will always give credit where it's due and b) will never complain about a bust.

I have never been lied to by any chaser, be it someone on this board or not, and y'all have my eternal gratitude!

 

[Adam Childers]

Thats a pretty nice and concise guide. I was actually just thinking yesterday that I need to get myself a white board with the US on it somehow. The only thing I disagree with is turning off the computer when you reach a decent storm. I would personally rather have my radar at that time for safety sake.

 

[mikegeukes]

You can also print off blank base maps from Plymouth State College
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/mapplt.html

Mike

 

[Skip Talbot]

Thats a pretty nice and concise guide. I was actually just thinking yesterday that I need to get myself a white board with the US on it somehow. The only thing I disagree with is turning off the computer when you reach a decent storm. I would personally rather have my radar at that time for safety sake.

You could get a large map of the plains, and put a pane of glass over it and use your dry erase markers on that.

Yes, you definitely don't want to turn your laptop off, especially if you are using it for navigation. You also don't want to get too caught up in watching the radar though. If I'm on a good looking, discrete cell I stop watching the radar. You don't want to second guess your position or the storm's strength based on some data that or may not be good. Use your eyes.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

Storm chase forecasting for novice chasers became much easier when the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced their probabilistic forecasts. Just let the world experts at SPC do your chase forecasting for you. The 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger (blue hatched area on the "Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic") can be used as a proxy supercell forecast. Virtually all large (golfball-sized and larger) hail is produced by supercells. The tornado probability forecast graphic is self-explanatory!

Just drive to the upwind (usually western edge of the large hail/tornado outlook areas by mid-afternoon and wait for your storms. Then use your online or satellite radar ("fish finder") to track the storms. Of course, better trained/more experienced chasers still have the edge, but it's all much easier for the novice chaser than when I began chasing back in the late 1980's/early 1990's.