Darrin Rasberry
As a chaser doing some long study out of Tim V's books and Dr. Flory's materials from the forecasting class here at Iowa State, I'm beginning to scrape off the final chunk of the tip of the weather iceberg and am preparing to dive deep as far as chaser forecasting.
Last year, my purely model-based forecasting was successful only a handful of times, and miserably failed so much that it often led to a loss of money, patience, and pride. So I've decided to switch methods, but I want to make sure what I'm doing is at least more effective than finding the intersection of the prettiest colors on the indexes at Earl's site and parking my car there.
The following is the method I've come up with to try out for my sophomore season. It's in NO WAY a suggestion to anyone else; all should be able to chase as they wish. It's not even definitive for myself, since I want to run it before more experienced chasers for adjustment.
EDIT: Sorry for switching from first to second person in this all the time, but I think my meaning is good enough for government work nonetheless.
WARNING: Some of the following suggestions might be shocking and/or stupid. Stormchasing parents are advised to exercise caution with younger readers.
======================
SPRING TRAINING
*Reread Red Book, forecasting class materials, Haby's site, and past important forecast threads to review terminology and methodology.
*Practice a few runs on Forecast Laboratory to brush up.
*Watch Storms of 2008, Reed's and other chaser's videos, and your own most successful videos to get motivated.
*Invest in a whiteboard with the U.S. overlayed on it. Laminate some popular stormchasing state maps so you can doodle on them as well.
METHOD FOR DAY 3 ON UP:
*Use the SPC. Period.
That's it. No more. Yes, it is often pointed out that Convective Outlooks aren't for stormchasers, but as far as Day 3+, forecasting specifics can be effectively done by nobody. I have doubts enough for the 12z data panning out, more or less specifics beyond that. Besides, many SPC forecasters were and are chasers, and I've seen in the past year quite a few writeups with a chaser tone to them.
*As for beyond Day 8, I realize strong systems have been predicted well ahead of time here on Stormtrack, but it is too much of a crapshoot for me to do myself.
*I'm in no way suggesting to just look at the graphic at the SPC site; those new to forecasting (as in, more of a n00b than I am) should especially steer clear of this. What I'm suggesting is to look at the graphic *AND* the text, once you've studied up enough (basically, my standard for doing a good study is to ask yourself if you could give a lecture to a classroom on whatever you studied). What features does the forecaster point out? Where are all the possible places this feature could be come chase day? What type of severe weather does the forecaster predict? If you deem it worthwhile for chase potential, follow its progression to Day 2.
*If the forecast is a "bad egg," i.e. not well-written or missing enough chasing details such as storm speed, etc., so that it would get giggles and a Warning had the forecaster put it on this site instead, then check GFS and NAM forecasted soundings/hodos in and around the area and come up with something yourself. In such a case I don't plan to spend any more than an hour with brainstorming possible events this far out and then checking my casting with more experienced and knowledgeable chasers here on Stormtrack.
*If the chase is on a work day and is hyped up enough that shifts need to be covered/vacation time needs to be taken, VERIFY the hype based on past experience and all the evidence you have. Vacation days spent on a busted hype can't be taken back, and buddies at work who cover your shift to let you chase storms are tough to find. Not to mention any money you'd lose if you're paid hourly, and if you're in school, an attended class is almost always better than making up notes and work.
*Follow progress of any interesting systems using surface/500mb data at 00z/12z on Day 3.
METHOD FOR DAY 2 (00z/12z for the day before):
*Use the SPC and check what they're saying about your potential chase scenario. Features should become a bit more narrow IMO, so pay closer attention to what the forecaster says than on days 3+.
*Check the local NWS forecasts in and near the area, as well.
* In every case, run the forecasted GFS/NAM soundings/hodos for your area and verify the forecasts.
*Check current conditions at surface/500mb at locations in and around your system's current location, as well as other relevant areas like the CAP-effecting high plains/Rockies, so you can estimate . Post your results here and check the opinions of others to correct potential mistakes and oversights.
*Make the final decision whether or not to chase. If it's not a local chase, get your obligations covered and hit the highway only after making the best decision you can from all the data you have. Gas isn't cheap, nor is school or a traded shift, as discussed earlier.
METHOD FOR DAY 1 (00z run and RUC runs the night before the chase):
*TRACK ALL SURFACE, SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE THE NIGHT BEFORE. Pay close attention to outflow boundaries, "storm killing" cloud cover, development close to but outside of your chase range, the positioning of the warm front/cold front/dryline/whatever. Be sure to TIME LOOP these to estimate their future progression through your area.
*Check surface/500mb data once more before bed to track the system's position. Take a look at IR satellite (it's probably dark at bedtime after all), radar, and RUC soundings/hodos for the system. Rely on estimation, past experience, and intuition, and pick a target. Fact-check vs. the SPC, local NWS offices, and chasers planning to hit your area. Spend around an hour doing all of this.
*Get a good rest. Make sure all gear, medicine, money, emergency equipment, etc., is ready for the next day. If it's a bit of a surprise chase, develop a convincing hacking cough for your boss, or better yet, continue preparing and brush up your skills by nowcasting for someone who is available to chase.
METHOD FOR PREPPING ON THE MORNING OF THE CHASE:
*Wake up early enough to have a good hour and a half or more to study before taking off to your target. Prepare and eat, and check each hour that the RUC data comes up on http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis. If the drive is going to be long, at least take the most recent RUC possible, all current conditions, and recent radar/satellite from the Mesoanalysis page or through your favorite weather program, and update whenever possible on the road if you have a partner in the front seat or time enough to stop and check stuff yourself.
*Print up the most recent surface data plots at the Mesoanalysis page or from your favorite surface data plotting site. If no printer is available, save the PDF graphics offered and convert the files to something you can mark on (via PrintScreen etc.) if you don't have an Adobe product that lets you do it to a PDF directly. Perhaps try to find a whiteboard with a good CONUS overlay so it can be updated with ease throughout the day.
*Check RUC soundings/hodos all around the forecast area, both current and projected throughout the day. Take particular note of the sounding shape (fat CAPE vs. long and skinny CAPE, for instance), current and projected cap strength (although rumor has it the RUC underestimates CINH), LFC/LCL, atmospheric temps, and the hodograph's shape, turning, and strength at the relevant heights. List current/forecasted relevant data and observations on the side of your Current Observations worksheet.
*Bring up a loop of the most recent satellite and radar data available, as well as copies of wind data at ALL heights. Using all your information, draw current isobars and isotherms on your surface data plot, and draw all unusual features present and projected, such as preventative cloud cover, OFBs, fronts, shortwaves, dryline bulges, UL disturbances, CAP-busting/lift mechanisms, dewpoint depth, etc. Estimate storm type, initiation time, and evolution.
*Fact-check with all the usual places. Perhaps take a look-see at the SREF page at the SPC as well.
*Discuss with any partners/nowcasters.
*Adjust target.
*Have partners or nowcasters update in transit, or do it yourself when you stop and can get data.
*Arrive at target area two hours before your earliest projected initiation time.
DURING THE CHASE
*If solo, make sure to have a nowcaster ready. At the very least, if the sky is clear in your area get a nowcaster to text you some METAR data so you can doodle out a different nearby target after you fuel up.
*If with a partner, have him (or you if you're the passenger) continuously follow surface and upper air observations and finding new or adjusted "features" that could spawn or buff up good storms. Have a nowcaster verify the observations.
*After initiation, do some quick radar and satellite analysis on the initial pops, keeping in mind the other nearby possible locations for more potential storms. If the first pops look good and it is improbable that better storms will develop elsewhere, I don't see any harm in going after them if you're sure your forecasting is sound enough to justify it. Use placement on the radar to see potential seeding/inflow cutoff problems and use satellite to see structure if you're heading out to multiple pops.
*If spotter nets are available or chasers are around that you can talk to via phone or face-to-face at the local Allsups, see what they are doing WITHOUT leaching. If they're headed elsewhere, take a quick look at the satellite or radar and see if they're justified, or ask them why they're headed the way they are if you don't use a computer (ALL chasers I've encountered are happy to explain their reasoning). Otherwise, stick with your own work. Correcting an error or oversight by figuring out why other chasers are elsewhere isn't wrong; blindly following other chasers out of a majority-rules sentiment is wrong.
*Once you're on a storm, shut off the computer. Turn on the WX radio to listen to warning information, and have your phone ready to relay info to the NWS or to contact a nowcaster or chaser you know is on the storm if things look questionable or hairy.
*I like to use that cheesy but catchy country song "The Gambler" as an example for restructuring my on-the-storm behavior:
-Know when to hold 'em: Stick to your storm until you have evidence that another one is better. If the storm you're on is not warned, and another warning comes up, keep as a default policy to NOT jump ship, even if there's activity reported.
If you leave your cell, you MIGHT catch a tornado on the other cell, but TORs are mostly false alarms and you might arrive to find nothing but dissipation while the storm you left could have given you a birth, life, and death of an even better twister. If the other storm is cutting yours off, or if yours is a dud and the other is being reported as long-track and slow moving, then move it, but generally driving through a rotating wall cloud on your own storm to jump on a warning elsewhere won't work. That's what killed us on 5/23.
-Know when to fold 'em: Use your eyes and experience to judge the quality of a storm, keeping the forecasted storm evolution for the day firmly in mind. If they're awful, they're awful. But as I said above, use an innocent-until-proven-guilty standard.
-Know when to walk away: As far as the whole day goes, if it is dudding out, remember your forecast and talk to others about updated information. Use experience and knowledge to judge whether to call off a chase; if you're too hasty, you may miss a storm, and if you're too stubborn, you'll waste gas and time. If it won't cost you too much, a hefty squall line, gorilla hail producer, or local attractions on a blue-sky day make for good pictures and times, as well. If it's a bust, it's a bust. Weather happens.
-Know when to run: Whenever you head into a storm, the two most important things to keep in mind are storm speed and motion (including right-mover possibilities), and escape routes. If you look at a map and see no turnoffs from a road you want to chase on alongside a storm, you're taking a big risk. If the storms are bullets, or if you're chasing at night, you're better off setting up in a safe spot, letting the storm roll by, and rolling the dice, rather than trying to follow it. If you're expecting a lone supe producing a pretty tornado to possibly right-turn on you, make sure you know you have opt-out roads before you become debris. If you want to get a money shot but know you're going to be in ridiculous danger, just suck up your pride and be safe. No storm is worth a life.
*Finally, if all else fails, join the DOW train!
AFTER THE CHASE
*Make sure the drive home/to the hotel is safe. Storms won't care whether your chase day is done.
*Make sure chasing partners have all their stuff or that I have all of mine if I'm in someone else's car.
*Write up REPORT post analyzing briefly the right and wrong things in the forecasting/actual chasing for the day.
*Prepare for the next chase.
Feel free to critique away. I don't expect this to be even halfway right, so I'm not at all setting this as personal doctrine. Preliminary thanks to everyone wishing to help adjust my planning for next year. See you all on the road!
Last year, my purely model-based forecasting was successful only a handful of times, and miserably failed so much that it often led to a loss of money, patience, and pride. So I've decided to switch methods, but I want to make sure what I'm doing is at least more effective than finding the intersection of the prettiest colors on the indexes at Earl's site and parking my car there.
The following is the method I've come up with to try out for my sophomore season. It's in NO WAY a suggestion to anyone else; all should be able to chase as they wish. It's not even definitive for myself, since I want to run it before more experienced chasers for adjustment.
EDIT: Sorry for switching from first to second person in this all the time, but I think my meaning is good enough for government work nonetheless.
WARNING: Some of the following suggestions might be shocking and/or stupid. Stormchasing parents are advised to exercise caution with younger readers.
======================
SPRING TRAINING
*Reread Red Book, forecasting class materials, Haby's site, and past important forecast threads to review terminology and methodology.
*Practice a few runs on Forecast Laboratory to brush up.
*Watch Storms of 2008, Reed's and other chaser's videos, and your own most successful videos to get motivated.
*Invest in a whiteboard with the U.S. overlayed on it. Laminate some popular stormchasing state maps so you can doodle on them as well.
METHOD FOR DAY 3 ON UP:
*Use the SPC. Period.
That's it. No more. Yes, it is often pointed out that Convective Outlooks aren't for stormchasers, but as far as Day 3+, forecasting specifics can be effectively done by nobody. I have doubts enough for the 12z data panning out, more or less specifics beyond that. Besides, many SPC forecasters were and are chasers, and I've seen in the past year quite a few writeups with a chaser tone to them.
*As for beyond Day 8, I realize strong systems have been predicted well ahead of time here on Stormtrack, but it is too much of a crapshoot for me to do myself.
*I'm in no way suggesting to just look at the graphic at the SPC site; those new to forecasting (as in, more of a n00b than I am) should especially steer clear of this. What I'm suggesting is to look at the graphic *AND* the text, once you've studied up enough (basically, my standard for doing a good study is to ask yourself if you could give a lecture to a classroom on whatever you studied). What features does the forecaster point out? Where are all the possible places this feature could be come chase day? What type of severe weather does the forecaster predict? If you deem it worthwhile for chase potential, follow its progression to Day 2.
*If the forecast is a "bad egg," i.e. not well-written or missing enough chasing details such as storm speed, etc., so that it would get giggles and a Warning had the forecaster put it on this site instead, then check GFS and NAM forecasted soundings/hodos in and around the area and come up with something yourself. In such a case I don't plan to spend any more than an hour with brainstorming possible events this far out and then checking my casting with more experienced and knowledgeable chasers here on Stormtrack.
*If the chase is on a work day and is hyped up enough that shifts need to be covered/vacation time needs to be taken, VERIFY the hype based on past experience and all the evidence you have. Vacation days spent on a busted hype can't be taken back, and buddies at work who cover your shift to let you chase storms are tough to find. Not to mention any money you'd lose if you're paid hourly, and if you're in school, an attended class is almost always better than making up notes and work.
*Follow progress of any interesting systems using surface/500mb data at 00z/12z on Day 3.
METHOD FOR DAY 2 (00z/12z for the day before):
*Use the SPC and check what they're saying about your potential chase scenario. Features should become a bit more narrow IMO, so pay closer attention to what the forecaster says than on days 3+.
*Check the local NWS forecasts in and near the area, as well.
* In every case, run the forecasted GFS/NAM soundings/hodos for your area and verify the forecasts.
*Check current conditions at surface/500mb at locations in and around your system's current location, as well as other relevant areas like the CAP-effecting high plains/Rockies, so you can estimate . Post your results here and check the opinions of others to correct potential mistakes and oversights.
*Make the final decision whether or not to chase. If it's not a local chase, get your obligations covered and hit the highway only after making the best decision you can from all the data you have. Gas isn't cheap, nor is school or a traded shift, as discussed earlier.
METHOD FOR DAY 1 (00z run and RUC runs the night before the chase):
*TRACK ALL SURFACE, SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE THE NIGHT BEFORE. Pay close attention to outflow boundaries, "storm killing" cloud cover, development close to but outside of your chase range, the positioning of the warm front/cold front/dryline/whatever. Be sure to TIME LOOP these to estimate their future progression through your area.
*Check surface/500mb data once more before bed to track the system's position. Take a look at IR satellite (it's probably dark at bedtime after all), radar, and RUC soundings/hodos for the system. Rely on estimation, past experience, and intuition, and pick a target. Fact-check vs. the SPC, local NWS offices, and chasers planning to hit your area. Spend around an hour doing all of this.
*Get a good rest. Make sure all gear, medicine, money, emergency equipment, etc., is ready for the next day. If it's a bit of a surprise chase, develop a convincing hacking cough for your boss, or better yet, continue preparing and brush up your skills by nowcasting for someone who is available to chase.
METHOD FOR PREPPING ON THE MORNING OF THE CHASE:
*Wake up early enough to have a good hour and a half or more to study before taking off to your target. Prepare and eat, and check each hour that the RUC data comes up on http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis. If the drive is going to be long, at least take the most recent RUC possible, all current conditions, and recent radar/satellite from the Mesoanalysis page or through your favorite weather program, and update whenever possible on the road if you have a partner in the front seat or time enough to stop and check stuff yourself.
*Print up the most recent surface data plots at the Mesoanalysis page or from your favorite surface data plotting site. If no printer is available, save the PDF graphics offered and convert the files to something you can mark on (via PrintScreen etc.) if you don't have an Adobe product that lets you do it to a PDF directly. Perhaps try to find a whiteboard with a good CONUS overlay so it can be updated with ease throughout the day.
*Check RUC soundings/hodos all around the forecast area, both current and projected throughout the day. Take particular note of the sounding shape (fat CAPE vs. long and skinny CAPE, for instance), current and projected cap strength (although rumor has it the RUC underestimates CINH), LFC/LCL, atmospheric temps, and the hodograph's shape, turning, and strength at the relevant heights. List current/forecasted relevant data and observations on the side of your Current Observations worksheet.
*Bring up a loop of the most recent satellite and radar data available, as well as copies of wind data at ALL heights. Using all your information, draw current isobars and isotherms on your surface data plot, and draw all unusual features present and projected, such as preventative cloud cover, OFBs, fronts, shortwaves, dryline bulges, UL disturbances, CAP-busting/lift mechanisms, dewpoint depth, etc. Estimate storm type, initiation time, and evolution.
*Fact-check with all the usual places. Perhaps take a look-see at the SREF page at the SPC as well.
*Discuss with any partners/nowcasters.
*Adjust target.
*Have partners or nowcasters update in transit, or do it yourself when you stop and can get data.
*Arrive at target area two hours before your earliest projected initiation time.
DURING THE CHASE
*If solo, make sure to have a nowcaster ready. At the very least, if the sky is clear in your area get a nowcaster to text you some METAR data so you can doodle out a different nearby target after you fuel up.
*If with a partner, have him (or you if you're the passenger) continuously follow surface and upper air observations and finding new or adjusted "features" that could spawn or buff up good storms. Have a nowcaster verify the observations.
*After initiation, do some quick radar and satellite analysis on the initial pops, keeping in mind the other nearby possible locations for more potential storms. If the first pops look good and it is improbable that better storms will develop elsewhere, I don't see any harm in going after them if you're sure your forecasting is sound enough to justify it. Use placement on the radar to see potential seeding/inflow cutoff problems and use satellite to see structure if you're heading out to multiple pops.
*If spotter nets are available or chasers are around that you can talk to via phone or face-to-face at the local Allsups, see what they are doing WITHOUT leaching. If they're headed elsewhere, take a quick look at the satellite or radar and see if they're justified, or ask them why they're headed the way they are if you don't use a computer (ALL chasers I've encountered are happy to explain their reasoning). Otherwise, stick with your own work. Correcting an error or oversight by figuring out why other chasers are elsewhere isn't wrong; blindly following other chasers out of a majority-rules sentiment is wrong.
*Once you're on a storm, shut off the computer. Turn on the WX radio to listen to warning information, and have your phone ready to relay info to the NWS or to contact a nowcaster or chaser you know is on the storm if things look questionable or hairy.
*I like to use that cheesy but catchy country song "The Gambler" as an example for restructuring my on-the-storm behavior:
-Know when to hold 'em: Stick to your storm until you have evidence that another one is better. If the storm you're on is not warned, and another warning comes up, keep as a default policy to NOT jump ship, even if there's activity reported.
If you leave your cell, you MIGHT catch a tornado on the other cell, but TORs are mostly false alarms and you might arrive to find nothing but dissipation while the storm you left could have given you a birth, life, and death of an even better twister. If the other storm is cutting yours off, or if yours is a dud and the other is being reported as long-track and slow moving, then move it, but generally driving through a rotating wall cloud on your own storm to jump on a warning elsewhere won't work. That's what killed us on 5/23.
-Know when to fold 'em: Use your eyes and experience to judge the quality of a storm, keeping the forecasted storm evolution for the day firmly in mind. If they're awful, they're awful. But as I said above, use an innocent-until-proven-guilty standard.
-Know when to walk away: As far as the whole day goes, if it is dudding out, remember your forecast and talk to others about updated information. Use experience and knowledge to judge whether to call off a chase; if you're too hasty, you may miss a storm, and if you're too stubborn, you'll waste gas and time. If it won't cost you too much, a hefty squall line, gorilla hail producer, or local attractions on a blue-sky day make for good pictures and times, as well. If it's a bust, it's a bust. Weather happens.
-Know when to run: Whenever you head into a storm, the two most important things to keep in mind are storm speed and motion (including right-mover possibilities), and escape routes. If you look at a map and see no turnoffs from a road you want to chase on alongside a storm, you're taking a big risk. If the storms are bullets, or if you're chasing at night, you're better off setting up in a safe spot, letting the storm roll by, and rolling the dice, rather than trying to follow it. If you're expecting a lone supe producing a pretty tornado to possibly right-turn on you, make sure you know you have opt-out roads before you become debris. If you want to get a money shot but know you're going to be in ridiculous danger, just suck up your pride and be safe. No storm is worth a life.
*Finally, if all else fails, join the DOW train!
AFTER THE CHASE
*Make sure the drive home/to the hotel is safe. Storms won't care whether your chase day is done.
*Make sure chasing partners have all their stuff or that I have all of mine if I'm in someone else's car.
*Write up REPORT post analyzing briefly the right and wrong things in the forecasting/actual chasing for the day.
*Prepare for the next chase.
Feel free to critique away. I don't expect this to be even halfway right, so I'm not at all setting this as personal doctrine. Preliminary thanks to everyone wishing to help adjust my planning for next year. See you all on the road!
Last edited by a moderator:
