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02/27/05 NOW: SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

Larry J. Kosch

NWS has issued an unusual TW for the penisula of Florida:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 600 PM EST.

TORNADOES, HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

What makes this unusual is the early start time of the tornado watch box. I can see from the COD VIS SAT there's convection already happening out in the Gulf of Mexico. And the cloud movement is definitely toward the Florida mainland.

Post your storm discussions and forecasts, etc. Sorry we didn't have a FCST thread set up for this before. Thanks. LJK.
 
It's grungy mess at this point. We've got just a little bit more rain left before things should clear out here for a couple hours. Some heating would be nice. I think it's gonna be quite difficult to find good discreet cells today, though the stuff just east of Tampa is starting to shape up.
 
Don't look now, but a buoy in the northern gulf has 1000 mb of pressure, which is at least 5 mb lower than the lowest pressure at 12z. This thing may be doing the "1 mb per hour" dance. Pressure falls are centered just off the coast of AQQ, so it looks like the surface low is deepening and moving towards the northeast.
 
There are currently 2 cells that seem to be bowing out in southeastern Polk County. Still don't see any rotation on the velocity radar though. Looks like some straight line winds at the moment. Of the many years I have lived in Florida, most of these systems fall short of our expectations as they come off the Gulf due to limited instability and daytime heating (except for 1993 and 1998). This line, though lacking distinct cells, seems to be holding together and still strengthening slightly. We'll see what happens...

Owen

--------------------
Cornell University
 
I agree that many storms are overplayed as intensity values really never reach estimated levels due to lack of instability. It looks like to me that some destabalization is beginning to occur just north of the warm front as breaks in the CU are allowing for some diurnal heating to come into play. Weak mid level lapse rates are resulting in little lightning output from the storms in the Gulf, so if any tornadoes do occur this afternoon there is a high possibility that there will be little lightning associated.
 
There's a TVS up for a cell that seems to have a bit of a hook on the reflectivity. It's heading into Osceola county from the southwest....between Kissimmee and Yeehaw Junction. The cell doesn't look too impressive on the velocity display, but the algorithm has a TVS on it.

Owen
-----------------
Cornell University
 
Tornado Warning just issued.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KENANSVILLE

Be careful in the area! Good Luck!
 
On the observational side...
I have received word from a location about 1 mile northeast of the intersection of highway 192 and Interstate 95 that there was a gust of sustained wind (no specific numbers here...) that lasted for approximately 30 seconds. Small trees were blown down. Looking at the velocity depiction, the tornado crossed highway 192 in Brevard County approximately 5-7 miles west of the I-95 intersection. The wind report was probably related to the remnant of the circulation as it crossed to the ENE or simply a downdraft near the core of the storm.

Owen
---------------------
Cornell University
 
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