Dissipated Barry Discussion Thread

Justin Allen

Justin Allen

Tropical Guru/Paramedic
Joined
Oct 10, 2018
Messages
63
Location
New Orleans, La
19014

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a
couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the
low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For
more information about the rainfall threat, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch
Click to expand...
 
We're up to 10%/80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Click to expand...

19019
 
And when it comes to these storms, especially one that hasn't even formed yet, you look at the big picture. The potential for severe rainfall is there, but that rain could end up anywhere. Then where it ends up going can affect how much moisture it picks up in the first place. I'm interested in where it goes cause Mississippi River levels are relatively close to minor flood stage.
 
Recon message from yesterday morning. They may do a radar mission into 92L Wednesday evening. TDR stands for tail Doppler radar. It's usually an initial sample of Invests and its also used to properly initialize the HWRF model.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR 28.0N 85.5W AT 10/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE P-3 TDR MISSION AT 11/0000Z.
Click to expand...
 
Up to 40%/80%.

19042

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is over water,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from
the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Click to expand...
 
Keep in mind, for those who aren't used to it. The euro image I showed above has winds at 850. You have to extrapolate down, so surface winds will be lower.
 
Looks like we have recon flights scheduled tomorrow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 09 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 10/1800Z A. 11/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 02BBA AL92
C. 10/1700Z C. 10/2000Z
D. 28.3N 86.2W D. NA
E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2300Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 15,000 TO 25,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
A. 11/0530Z A. 11/1000Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 11/0415Z C. 11/0800Z
D. 27.9N 87.8W D. 27.8N 88.3W
E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z E. 11/1030Z TO 11/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
A. 11/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0502A CYCLONE
C. 11/1000Z
D. 27.7N 88.5W
E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/2000Z AND
12/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
Click to expand...
 
Per NWS New Orleans:

The Mississippi River forecast at the New Orleans Carrollton gage was updated this afternoon to a crest of 19 feet on Friday into Saturday to account for potential storm surge impacts on the lower Mississippi River. The forecast was closely coordinated with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers & the National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Unit.

The city is protected to a project height of 20 feet. There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding potential impacts, so please continue to monitor the forecast over the next several days for the latest information.
Click to expand...

19054
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
 
HREF members this morning coming in hot. Many of them showing a hurricane strength TC by 12Z Friday morning. The NMMB-based HREF members (3 km NAM and HRW-NMMB) are especially hot, and also unrealistic, progging a nearly cat 5 hurricane by that time! The 3 km NAM has minimum pressures << 900 mb, which is a pretty good sign that it is overdoing the development of the system. However, HRRRv3 and HRRRX also suggest sustained winds > 50 kts within 36 hours, so there does seem to be some signal in a somewhat rapidly developing TC this week. Could end up being a bigger story than initially anticipated.
 
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