Dissipated Barry Discussion Thread

[Justin Allen]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a
couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and
a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the
low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For
more information about the rainfall threat, please see products
issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch

 

[Justin Allen]

Both GFS and Euro have moved toward a more Western solution.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Are any of the tropical model suites actively covering this storm? UCAR feed for example hasn't picked up on it yet, presumably because it is over land?

RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Real-Time Guidance

 

[Justin Allen]

None yet, closer to us getting an invest/storm they will.

 

[Justin Allen]

We're up to 10%/80%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[Justin Allen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1148213438642081792

 

[Steve Miller]

Some crazy rainfall totals out to Day 7:

 

[Justin Allen]

Yesterday the euro had 15-20 inches over South Louisiana.

 

[Justin Allen]

Here's the latest spaghetti plots and 7 day WPC forecast.

 

[Jacob Melton]

Those rainfall totals spell out bad news for those folks. Definitely something to watch closely.

 

[Justin Allen]

And when it comes to these storms, especially one that hasn't even formed yet, you look at the big picture. The potential for severe rainfall is there, but that rain could end up anywhere. Then where it ends up going can affect how much moisture it picks up in the first place. I'm interested in where it goes cause Mississippi River levels are relatively close to minor flood stage.

 

[Justin Allen]

Recon message from yesterday morning. They may do a radar mission into 92L Wednesday evening. TDR stands for tail Doppler radar. It's usually an initial sample of Invests and its also used to properly initialize the HWRF model.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 08 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z JULY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR 28.0N 85.5W AT 10/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE P-3 TDR MISSION AT 11/0000Z.

 

[Justin Allen]

Up to 40%/80%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is over water,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from
the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Justin Allen]

These always leave a sour taste in my mouth since the Vipir failed with Katrina, but I'll share regardless.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1148602953500172288

 

[Justin Allen]

Euro coming in hot. Slightly north and stronger.