Andrea has formed!

[rdale]

WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

 

[Jesse V. Bass III]

pretty crazy to have it in may... this could be a sign of things to come.. or it could go the other way too.. but all indications right now is it will be busy!!

I was on the outer banks on sunday after it had moved through and skies had pretty much cleared.. i had a wind gust to 60mph on the bonner bridge in the evening.. sand blowing everwhere... here is a link to the video


http://www.vastormphoto.com/MyVideos/may62007hatterasweb.wmv

 

[J Kinkaid]

hopefully we can get this thing across FL and into the GOM so we can put out the fires and bring some much needed rain to the central gulfcoast.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Even worse, the NHC started naming subtropical systems.

Insurance policies have a much higher insurance deductible for hurricanes (well, tropical cyclones).

My insurance policy is $1,000 deductible for wind damage, but if the wind damage is caused by a "storm with a name" (yup - that's what my policy says) ... Then it's $4,000.

So, a few years ago, if "Andrea" (or "unamed system" back then) knocked over a tree in Jacksonville and did $20,000 to a roof, the victim would pay $1,000, and the insurance would pay the rest ($19,000).

The SAME storm and damage TODAY, oops ... Dig deeper and pull up $4,000 ;-(

Politix ... Gotta love it!

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Some policies only apply the "hurricane deductible" only if there is a hurricane warning declared "x" amount of hours prior to landfall....I worked a claim that that was caused by a named tropical storm at the time of landfall only to have it upgraded to a hurricane after further analysis...needless to say, the non-hurricane deductible applied as a hurricane warning was not in effect at the time of loss. I was glad the lower deductible applied...It all depends on the policy...I hear Some states and/or insurance companies are using a 5% hurricane deductible,,ouch..

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

NHC says that Andrea has weakened to a subtropical depression. My comment based on forecasts in Advisory is: I have observed middle latitude cyclones what were worse than this.

 

[J Kinkaid]

Deep convection fireing now over the center ! She's looking like she's a real fighter

The 00Z model run of the NOGAPS still had something, at some level, moving into the GOM.

 

[J Kinkaid]

000
WONT41 KNHC 111856
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

 

[Menno van der Haven]

Hmmm, I followed that system on the maps the last couple of days' and to me it only seems a cold upper low system over relatively warm waters.
Does Andrea really have (had) tropical characteristics? Normally tropical systems are initiated near the ITCZ and follow a course from east to west whilst developing. This time it obviously was not the case.