Worrying Signs

[cdcollura]

I throw any models out the window if they are more than 120 hours (4-5 days) out.

The longer ranges only give a slight inkling and there is just way too much variability.

With that said, about 4 days and more sooner would be what to worry about.

Right now, the pattern lacks the dreaded "Hudson Bay Vortex" pattern, where a persistent period of "ridge west and trough east" is dominant (example: Mid to late May of 2006).

When you see a 1500-mile-wide 500 mb low and surface low, Rex-block cut-off, and sitting for a week over Lake Erie and thermal ridge setting up behind it's 300 MB NW flow in response over Arizona and NM - Then panic.

As for me, I am sure my presence in the plains will make May the way it has been (un-productive), that's why I will only chase setups this year. Good for all of us - LOL!

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Interesting thing on GFS is that it appears to sometimes get close on Estonian weather even at long range. For example, lunar eclipse being clouded out in March 2007 was forecasted two weeks ahead. Also, around a week or two ago, GFS forecasted heavy convection in these days. Although such high convection is no longer forecasted, Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is forecasting a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow. In fact, thunders are already at Swedish waters. So indeed, if model consistently forecasts something, then something may be indeed up.