Scott Weberpal
EF5
I'll make sure we don't plan any Christmas dinners for the 21/22 of December...looks like a lot of snow here 
Worrying Signs
- Thread starter Paul Sherman
- Start date
Scott Weberpal
EF5
On a good note, the 180 hr GFS shows a boat load of energy moving across the Pacific (valid 26 April). Being that the 180 hr is within the believeable realm, this should provide for at least a couple good chase days in early May.
nickgrillo
EF5
It'd be nice if the next active period holds off until mid-late May, which will give me more time to save up money and pay the rest of this debt off that I have. Consequently, I probably won't even be able to chase until the second week of May... Of course, with my luck, the first week of May will be the most active part of the season.
Hi there
We are four Danish chasers that will travel from Copenhagen, Denmark, to Wichita on april 28th for a two week chase. And naturally we hope to experience some severe weather.
Last year we arrived during the Omega block in may and didn't get to see as much severe weather as we had hoped for.
I know that you should not pay too much attention to long range forecasts. However they can give you an idea of the general dynamics and flow. Has anyone been looking a bit further ahead?
Looking forward to chasing with Warmsector.com again.
Kai-Asle
We are four Danish chasers that will travel from Copenhagen, Denmark, to Wichita on april 28th for a two week chase. And naturally we hope to experience some severe weather.
Last year we arrived during the Omega block in may and didn't get to see as much severe weather as we had hoped for.
I know that you should not pay too much attention to long range forecasts. However they can give you an idea of the general dynamics and flow. Has anyone been looking a bit further ahead?
Looking forward to chasing with Warmsector.com again.
Kai-Asle
Last edited by a moderator:
Paul Austin
We are also looking quite forward to chasing again with the Danes! Maybe we won't find ourselves chasing the bootheel of MO and western TN after dark this year. I guess we'll take what nature delivers. Here's hoping the "worrying signs" pan out worry-free.
Last edited by a moderator:
afischer
EF4
I'm surprised to see a few people other than myself taking vacations or mini-vacations for chasing in early May. I hold out some hope for this period... we'll have a week or so of downtime after today and tomorrow's events as the trough west ridge east pattern shifts along, but thereafter I'm hoping the persistent troughiness holds over the N Pac and keeps the western U.S. loaded with more upper disturbances.
John Hudson
EF4
I'd tend to agree. There's absolutely no good reason (of which I'm aware) to discount May, other than purely due to the negative hangover from '06. So far, the season's looking like it's trying to make up for last year.
There's plenty of information stuffed into forecasts and models, both long and short term. But in interpreting them, there's always an element of "attitude bias". In other words, if you want it to look bleak, that's how you will perceive it.
May will give us some good opportunities this year. I plan to be there, and hope to see many of you.
John
Marc Austin
EF4
I can't bielieve this ride is going to set up in the plains next week! Just in time for our annual (once a year) chase! We couldn't have chosen a worse time to go out. And it looks like things will get rolling when we're supposed to return. Good luck to anyone else who is unfortunate enough to be chasing the next week and a half. Maybe things will turn around, but I have a sinking feeling about it.
mark plate
EF1
The GFS is pretty dreadful more than one DAY out many times. I've found it to be about the least accurate medium-long range model around.
Marc Austin
EF4
Whadayaknow?! now the GFS is showing a nice trough moving through the central plains around May 4. Let's hope it's right, although that's a long way out! It does make me feel a little better though.
So Mark, which model do you recommend? Any links to better short-mid range model?
rdale
EF5
ECMWF is the best, also like the Canadian GEM.
Adam Atkins
EF2
I'm going to be watching May 3-5 as the next potential lonwave trough digs across the Pac NW and several shortwaves are ejected across the Rockies. Might be a chance for the northern plains to really get in on the action (NE, SD, ND). One thing's for sure, persistent ridging before the next SWerly flow will allow the gulf to be open for business for several days prior. March 28....
Marc Austin
EF4
This is true. Hopefully there will be another longwave rolling through the central U.S. around that time. I wouldn't complain about chasing in NE. We've had some good luck there in the last few years. Are there any models other than the GFS that are suggesting a potential system moving through the plains during that time frame?
Eddie Natenberg
EF1
Ahh the good ol' wishcast thread, something I'm good at eh?
Heres my 2 cents. The strong height gradient south of the SW Alaskan coast is a fact, as far as model analysis can go. This is a very unstable baroclinic zone. IE: Cold air meets warm air = jet max. This flow should translate into a strong long wave zonal height perturbation over the next 5 days and then progress east. I see at least a few days of severe weather next week cause of this. The magnitude and extent of the severe weather I think will rely on the amount of WAA and Thickness increase across the northern plains. The GFS puts a strong ridge of high thickness values in for next week causing the feature to increase in magnitude and decrease in wavelength (meridional flow), I think that could cause a event with too much forcing. Thats my 2 cents.
The ensemble products look a little more promising than that though:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/briefs/hgtP1.html
Happy wishcasting.
Eddie
Heres my 2 cents. The strong height gradient south of the SW Alaskan coast is a fact, as far as model analysis can go. This is a very unstable baroclinic zone. IE: Cold air meets warm air = jet max. This flow should translate into a strong long wave zonal height perturbation over the next 5 days and then progress east. I see at least a few days of severe weather next week cause of this. The magnitude and extent of the severe weather I think will rely on the amount of WAA and Thickness increase across the northern plains. The GFS puts a strong ridge of high thickness values in for next week causing the feature to increase in magnitude and decrease in wavelength (meridional flow), I think that could cause a event with too much forcing. Thats my 2 cents.
The ensemble products look a little more promising than that though:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/briefs/hgtP1.html
Happy wishcasting.
Eddie
Michael O'Keeffe
It looks as though on the GFS the May 4-5 timeframe looks good over the C Plains. May 4 has tds to 70F and CAPE to over 4000 j/kg in C Iowa!!!!! A nice trough will be entering the plains this day as well. May 5 the threat shifts to the Mo/IL border with the same conditions as the day before in place across the region! It looks like we will have about a week to get settled and ready for the next round of sig severe wx.
