What's ahead for Tropical Season?

[Jason Harris]

I see that people are speculating about what the second-supercell stormchasing season might bring this Fall, but what about the rest of the hurricane season now that we are past the peak of Sept. 10?

Now, I assume that peak is calculated by all years on record, but what patterns emerge in La Nina years like this one? What have past years of comparable histories suggested?

 

[cdcollura]

Looks like from today on to the next week or so we will see a lull in tropical activity die to the MJO (M Julian Oscillation), which is a 2-week-long cycle.

 

[Marc Austin]

I suspect we'll see at least one more major hurricane and possibly a couple weaker ones before the season is over. Whether or not they will affect the U.S. is anybody's guess, but that's based purely on intuition. We still have 2.5 months left so anything can happen.

 

[Thomas Spence]

It is going to be quiet until the weekend comes along. The 18z GFS is developing a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa around the 96 hour time frame. It then stalls it around the Cape Verge Islands. I do expect the activity to pick up towards the end of the month going into October. I think we will get 4-6 more storms with at least 1 more major hurricane before the season is over.

 

[Warren Faidley]

My gut feeling is that the Gulf Coast will have at least one more major storm.

Warren

 

[Jim Leonard]

The next MJO pulse is expected to be in the western hemisphere in about a week to 10 days. That should help the tropical convection flareup, with the upward motion in the area there should be more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. The last few days of the month through the first week of the next month has been the most active period so far this season.

 

[Jim Leonard]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ewp.gif
This chart shows the expected MJO's progress across the globe over the next few weeks. Favorable for convective flareup is the areas in green.

 

[Sarah Glenn]

Sorry, this may belong in the Educational Forum, but how long does it normally take SSTs to recover after a major storm? I remember after Gustav, it seemed like SSTs stayed cool(er) up until Ike. I must say, I haven't looked at them lately, but would imagine the water's still pretty churned up. I guess I am speaking specifically about the Gulf, because I would imagine it may be longer in deeper waters...