Update on the Drought in the Southern Plains

[Mike Smith]

Based on my reading of the European's QPF and the newest run of the GFS, substantial drought relief is forecast along and south of I-44 in the next 15 days. The pattern recognition/teleconnections are quite favorable.

Here is the rainfall forecast from now until 6pm Friday evening.
[[[my apology]]] for some reason the graphic is not posting.

There is a second storm behind this one.

If you would like details, they are at my blog: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/11/how-is-that-drought-relief-coming.html

 

[Jeff Duda]

That's nice to see, but some of those storms are a long way out, and even a minute adjustment in the storm track at that range could be the difference between a few inches of rain and nothing. I already witnessed one synoptic scale storm that ended up missing central Oklahoma after being progged to track right across the state. The good news is that there has already been some drought relief since the heavier rains of October. Norman is back down to a D2 drought for the first time in awhile. Some parts of eastern OK are in just a D1!

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?OK,S

 

[Mike Smith]

How Good Was the Forecast?

Here is an assessment as to the quality of the drought relief forecast that prompted this thread. Feel free to post your comments on the quality of the forecast. http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/11/so-how-did-that-drought-forecast-work.html

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[jeremy wilson]

Here in north Texas it feels like the drought has been busted! 6 inches of rain in a couple hours Monday with some flash flooding like I've never seen in surrounding country. Before that October was very soggy. Looks like more rain on the way this Friday. Looks like to me your forecast was pretty accurate.