TX/OK Drought and the 2026 Tornado Season

[Randy Zipser]

Attached is an article published today (2026-02-09) from an academic website about the ongoing drought in Texas and Oklahoma, which they partly attribute to the current La Nina climatic cycle. What effect might this drought have on the upcoming 2026 tornado season in Tornado Alley? Any thoughts for discussion?

Sixth year of drought in Texas and Oklahoma leaves ranchers bracing for another harsh summer

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I've seen folks talk about how the transition to El Nino is coming and should fix all the drought problems in the Southern Plains. We had that snow/ice storm that dumped precip across a large swath, but we're facing mid February with no real notable precip outside of that so far. Seems like we either get some rain in the next month or we're going to be spending March like 2011 with fires in the southern plains. Hopefully I am worrying for nothing

 

[Warren Faidley]

After doing this for 38 years, I don't have faith in any long range forecast. Too many multi-scale factors that ultimately determine what happens. A fantastic upper air set-up can be nixed by poor RH return or a strong cap can ruin things for days. It ultimately comes down to being able to chase every single potential set-up across vast regions, which is not realistic for most of us.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Seems like we either get some rain in the next month or we're going to be spending March like 2011 with fires in the southern plains.

That's a good point that Ben brings up.

In one of my earlier posts (The Tornado Climatology of 2011), there was a discussion by Mike Smith that a valid statistical correlation has never been established to definitively link the preceding winter climatology pattern with the spring tornado season (occurrence or frequency) that follows. Accepted theory is that the two should not be linked in reality, rather only as a thoughtful academic research exercise. This seems to be a very logical conclusion, based upon studies that have already been done on this subject.

But just as a strong wintertime El Nino pattern seems more often than not to coincide with above-average tornado activity in Dixie Alley during the late-winter and early-spring months that follow (2024 was a very good example of this), could one make an argument that a strong winter La Nina pattern might more often than not lead to an above-average tornado season the following spring in Tornado Alley? Or, intense hot and dry conditions in the summer months over this part of the country?

The reason I mention this is because in that same earlier post, reference is made to a strong La Nina being in place during 2011, which still is the record-holder for number of tornadoes in any one season! It will be interesting to see whether a similar result is achieved in 2026, given a similar climatology backdrop going into the Tornado Alley season (early April to mid June). Of course, one season does not make a statistical trend, but the result may (or may not) lead to additional study about how tropical and mid-latitude circulations may somehow be related, if at all.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I’m with Warren on long-range forecasts being inaccurate, or at best pointless for chasing. The 2025 long-range forecast had me hopeless about a lost season, but it ended up being great for many, and at least “very good” for me. Sure, May was slow as predicted, but even that three or four day stint in mid-May would have been enough to make a successful chase trip, if I hadn’t personally failed to capitalize on it. The June 6-8 sequence was among the best personal three-day sequences I could remember in many years. And then there were those two or three “tornados of the century” in late June, and even into July if i remember correctly, although I was long gone from the Plains by then…

Some of the long-range predictions may actually have been correct - for example, Trey Greenwood at Convective Chronicles had forecast a below-average May and an above-average June. But the point still remains that it’s pretty meaningless from a chasing perspective. Regardless of the macro picture, the quality of the season often comes down to just a few particular days or weeks, and an individual chaser’s probability of success depends on being able to chase at the right times, and the individual chaser’s perception of the season comes down to numerous other controllable and non-controllable factors on those chase days.

This year I vow to not be swayed either way by the long-range predictions. Even the favorable ones create angst about being unable to spend enough time out there. I am going to avoid torturing myself this year.

 

[Dan Robinson]

We had a thread on this subject a few years ago, if I can get some time this weekend I'll do an update to these charts:

Thread 'Chase season predictors: urban legends or useful?'

Mar 15, 2018

It's about that time of year when everyone starts looking at the drought monitor and CPC climate outlook for spring, and subsequently either freaking out or jumping for joy. But how reliable are those for predicting the quality of the chase season?

I decided to create these graphics showing side-by-side images of commonly-cited predictors of chase seasons and how the seasons actually turned out.

Graphic A:
2000-2017: UNL Drought Monitor as of early April/late May, Palmer Drought Index for April and May, Oceanic Nino Index, the April-June CPC climate outlook issued in March, SPC tornado...

• Dan Robinson
• Replies: 21
• Forum: Advanced weather & chasing

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