Is a busy tornado season ahead ?

[Dan Robinson]

No problem, there's a lot of discussion on the other thread that anyone that might be looking at this thread would be interested to read too.

 

[Bill Tabor]

They are also talking about this on wx-chase some and someone posted a good link for longer term forecasts. For the period through April it shows the current general trend continuing with average to above average rain in southern plains areas Tx, and a bit into OK and perhaps KS as I recall. This should increase ground moisture content and potential evapotranspiration come the May time frame. As I understand, it it during the April / May timeframe that we maybe switching to La Nina. So if those troughs do set up as others have mentioned to our west and and southwest flow continues I would assume there will at least be a favorable transition time in the southern plains for severe / tornadic weather. The extent and specific location is uncertain. After that it appears it will then dry up quite a bit and get hot down south as is typical and June-Aug would naturally see the pattern move north.

In all it sounds to me like we will have good opportunities for severe this Spring. Dare I say possibly even in Tx? But I'm not gonna jinx it.