Dan Robinson
EF5
I don't remember a 4-8 day outlook sequence since it was introduced where every single day had a risk area.
State of the Chase Season: 2019
- Thread starter chrisbray
- Start date
Alex Elmore
EF2
Patrick Marsh (SPC) confirmed on Twitter that this is the first time that this has happened. This thread also has some info on the history of Day 8 SPC outlooks:
JamesCaruso
Staff member
This is a somewhat thinking-out-loud and navel-gazing post so I hope the MODS don't have a problem with its lack of meteorological content. I don't know where else to put it and it is at least related to the 2019 chase season and upcoming pattern. My post relates to timing of chase trips, which others have also posted about in this thread.
Anyway, I am beside myself with angst about having to sit this pattern out. I can't remember EVER seeing an SPC 4-8 day quite like this. 2013 was great the last two weeks of May, but even then I don't remember the outlooks looking quite this good this far in advance. After years when I had some flexibility to chase within a window that would just about always include the third week of May - and having to keep delaying the trip because nothing was happening - this year the earliest I can possibly start my two week chase trip is the night of the 22nd (for a first chase on the 23rd). This is due to a combination of a family event of my own on Sun 5/19, and of my chase partner's on Wed 5/22. Knowing about my chase partner's 5/22 commitment, I went ahead and scheduled a business commitment for that same day, which I now cannot get out of. In retrospect, that was stupid on my part, but I don't like chasing alone anyway so not sure I would go out there without him, especially on a high-end day. Now, the best I can hope for is to hit the last day of the pattern on Thurs 5/23. But I'm not even sure that's worth doing because that will probably be immediately followed by at least 3-4 down days that are going to feel even more frustrating and depressing than usual. In that case I might be better off delaying my two-week trip until Memorial Day weekend so that I can stay longer on the back end.
I have even toyed with the idea of flying out just for Fri and coming home Sat for my family event on Sun, but that's probably pretty stupid (thanks @Todd Lemery for helping me realize that). Now I'm toying with the idea of flying out Sun night for Mon and coming back Tue for my business commitment on Wed. Also probably equally or even more stupid; not even sure if I have time to get out there Sun night after my family event. See, I'm just getting crazy here... By only chasing for two weeks, I miss stuff every year, so why should this be any different? The issue this time is that it looks SO good, it's SO close to my own trip, and it's during a week that, in most other years, I would be able to get out there.
I guess I just need to take a deep breath, be stoic about it, focus on work, suck it up, and trust that my own trip, which starts soon enough, will be fruitful. In trying to find some positives in the situation, there are downsides in high-end, high risk events - chaser hordes, a very broad risk area making it harder to pick the "best" target, too many storms going up at once interfering with each other, very high moisture content obscuring visibility, the pressure to not make a mistake and screw up a great day such that even people back home hear about 50 tornadoes and I have to see I didn't see any of them... There are just such high expectations on a high-end day, so much real and self-inflicted stress and pressure! As a chase vacationer I need time to "shake the rust off" and actually prefer not having a high-end event on my first day. None of us needs an outbreak for a great chase; one good supercell and/or tornado from a mesoscale setup is just as satisfying as an outbreak. It's like a great meal at a restaurant, as long as I enjoy my meal, who cares whether the menu has 10 other good things or nothing else good? Maybe an outbreak increases chances of success because of the number of available storms, maybe it spreads the chasers out, but it also draws many more chasers in total and comes with the other potential downsides noted above.
As long as I get enough chase days of my own once I get out there, the pain of missing this sequence should become a distant memory. I've missed plenty of good stuff even while I'm on a chase vacation; if I can get over that, I should be able to get over this. I'm not even bothering to look at the models that far out. I am encouraged by some of the posts on here about late May, but I also am not a huge fan of northern Plains chasing. Of course I'll do it, but I much prefer the "feel" of the southern Plains; that's Tornado Alley to me. I don't hold out much hope that all three weeks through the end of my trip on June 8 can possibly be good. But I'm certainly hoping there is more than just this upcoming week. After all, 2013 had two consecutive awesome weeks, and most people still think that season sucked because two weeks was all there was. So hopefully this one great week isn't it for 2019.
Thanks for listening. Who else but my fellow chasers can I even talk to about this? Even if they politely listen, they could never understand.
If anyone else has this same unfortunate timing, I would love to hear from you, feel free to message me directly.
Jim
Anyway, I am beside myself with angst about having to sit this pattern out. I can't remember EVER seeing an SPC 4-8 day quite like this. 2013 was great the last two weeks of May, but even then I don't remember the outlooks looking quite this good this far in advance. After years when I had some flexibility to chase within a window that would just about always include the third week of May - and having to keep delaying the trip because nothing was happening - this year the earliest I can possibly start my two week chase trip is the night of the 22nd (for a first chase on the 23rd). This is due to a combination of a family event of my own on Sun 5/19, and of my chase partner's on Wed 5/22. Knowing about my chase partner's 5/22 commitment, I went ahead and scheduled a business commitment for that same day, which I now cannot get out of. In retrospect, that was stupid on my part, but I don't like chasing alone anyway so not sure I would go out there without him, especially on a high-end day. Now, the best I can hope for is to hit the last day of the pattern on Thurs 5/23. But I'm not even sure that's worth doing because that will probably be immediately followed by at least 3-4 down days that are going to feel even more frustrating and depressing than usual. In that case I might be better off delaying my two-week trip until Memorial Day weekend so that I can stay longer on the back end.
I have even toyed with the idea of flying out just for Fri and coming home Sat for my family event on Sun, but that's probably pretty stupid (thanks @Todd Lemery for helping me realize that). Now I'm toying with the idea of flying out Sun night for Mon and coming back Tue for my business commitment on Wed. Also probably equally or even more stupid; not even sure if I have time to get out there Sun night after my family event. See, I'm just getting crazy here... By only chasing for two weeks, I miss stuff every year, so why should this be any different? The issue this time is that it looks SO good, it's SO close to my own trip, and it's during a week that, in most other years, I would be able to get out there.
I guess I just need to take a deep breath, be stoic about it, focus on work, suck it up, and trust that my own trip, which starts soon enough, will be fruitful. In trying to find some positives in the situation, there are downsides in high-end, high risk events - chaser hordes, a very broad risk area making it harder to pick the "best" target, too many storms going up at once interfering with each other, very high moisture content obscuring visibility, the pressure to not make a mistake and screw up a great day such that even people back home hear about 50 tornadoes and I have to see I didn't see any of them... There are just such high expectations on a high-end day, so much real and self-inflicted stress and pressure! As a chase vacationer I need time to "shake the rust off" and actually prefer not having a high-end event on my first day. None of us needs an outbreak for a great chase; one good supercell and/or tornado from a mesoscale setup is just as satisfying as an outbreak. It's like a great meal at a restaurant, as long as I enjoy my meal, who cares whether the menu has 10 other good things or nothing else good? Maybe an outbreak increases chances of success because of the number of available storms, maybe it spreads the chasers out, but it also draws many more chasers in total and comes with the other potential downsides noted above.
As long as I get enough chase days of my own once I get out there, the pain of missing this sequence should become a distant memory. I've missed plenty of good stuff even while I'm on a chase vacation; if I can get over that, I should be able to get over this. I'm not even bothering to look at the models that far out. I am encouraged by some of the posts on here about late May, but I also am not a huge fan of northern Plains chasing. Of course I'll do it, but I much prefer the "feel" of the southern Plains; that's Tornado Alley to me. I don't hold out much hope that all three weeks through the end of my trip on June 8 can possibly be good. But I'm certainly hoping there is more than just this upcoming week. After all, 2013 had two consecutive awesome weeks, and most people still think that season sucked because two weeks was all there was. So hopefully this one great week isn't it for 2019.
Thanks for listening. Who else but my fellow chasers can I even talk to about this? Even if they politely listen, they could never understand.
If anyone else has this same unfortunate timing, I would love to hear from you, feel free to message me directly.
Jim
Dan Robinson
EF5
James, I really feel for your situation. Does your family know how much chasing means to you? If it was me, I would feel put off that a family event was scheduled in the heart of chase season knowing how much I look forward to the trip, wait for it all year, and how I don't ask for time free all other 11 and a half months of the year. I realize that if you have a family you have to make sacrifices sometimes, but it seems to me to be pretty inconsiderate of them to put you in the position you're in now. I don't know the exact situation or whether that is fair of me to levy that criticism of them, but that's just my gut reaction whenever I hear about family or work scheduling something mandatory in the middle of peak chase season like that. When they KNOW how much it means to you. It's happened to many other chasers I know and it always irks me.
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ScottCurry
EF3
On May 7, 2016, I was in Greeley Colorado attending a graduation. I had to be there. The forecast showed a good possibility for a tornado in NE Colorado, and sure enough, while the graduation was taking place, the Wray, CO tornado hit... just a little over a 2 hour drive from Greeley. It was extremely frustrating to be 2 hours away from a great chase, and not able to chase. Some things are more important than chasing, and should not be missed.
Dan Robinson
EF5
Yes definitely - a marriage, graduation or similar event is OK. In many cases it's something else that probably could have been scheduled at a later/earlier time.
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If you have the money, time, and means, I don't see how this is stupid. You're still honoring your family's event while showing yourself the love, too. So why not do that?
I understand your plight Jim and it isn’t easy no matter how you slice it. My dad passed away in early 2017, then my mom had a heart attack. On top of that my sister and daughter were living with my mom and my sister was slowly dying of alcoholism. Two month later she died and my mom was in a shambles. We had her move in with us because she wasn’t really able to live alone anymore. Her living here has all but put the kubosh on any chasing I might do, unless it’s a two or three hour chase just east of Denver. I’m not getting any younger so it stinks to see these beautiful setups coming and I’m pretty much grounded at home. I figure I’m doing the right thing and if there’s a reward for it in the after life I believe I’ll be better off because I put my own needs aside. I don’t think she’ll be here much longer so that should free me up to get out more. I’m just trying to be patient and wait for life to run its course. Hang in there and things will work out!
Jeff House
Supporter
The 12Z ECMWF heard @JamesCaruso and pooped all over early next week with a tear drop upper trough and all kinds of WAA slop. Surely it's an outlier. Ensembles have kept it open. GFS keeps it open. I know LOL the GFS day 7 it's borderline. We shall see if the 00Z Euro opens back up.
Saturday the Euro was always closed and compact compared to the open GFS. In the past it was a Euro bias. Still that's day 5 and a lot of divergence. For all the talk of historic outbreaks and generational sequences, this may just be an average chase sequence. Too early to cancel though; ceiling remains high.
If all else fails Week 3 still looks good on Ensembles and Weeklies, with a continued Pac jet. Current charts look a little zonal, but the SER has been over-performing. Week 3 could still improve. North would be nice too.
Saturday the Euro was always closed and compact compared to the open GFS. In the past it was a Euro bias. Still that's day 5 and a lot of divergence. For all the talk of historic outbreaks and generational sequences, this may just be an average chase sequence. Too early to cancel though; ceiling remains high.
If all else fails Week 3 still looks good on Ensembles and Weeklies, with a continued Pac jet. Current charts look a little zonal, but the SER has been over-performing. Week 3 could still improve. North would be nice too.
Dan Robinson
EF5
Reminder of eastern Nebraska road issues:
Matthew Crowther
EF3
The 12Z EPS and GEFS say the really strong second system the Op Euro has is likely overdone.
Marc R. O'Leary
EF5
I've had to lay down the law with my wife about her scheduling trips for us in storm season. Simla was an hour from my house, but I was 1400 miles away in Michigan.
Quincy Vagell
EF4
I decided to take a look at mid to late May climatology in more detail. The Plains states (CO/KS/ND/NE/NM/OK/SD/TX/WY) average 87 tornadoes between May 16-31, using the 1993-2017 average, as I wanted the most recent 25-year period that was available.
From there, I assessed the most active periods for tornadoes in the Plains, as well as the least active.
I won't spoil all of the results, but I will share this image that shows the mean pattern in the five most active periods, which included, not in this order, May 21-30, 2016, May 23-28, 2015, May 18-25, 2010, May 22-29, 2008 and May 16-30, 2004. These years averaged 166 tornadoes from May 16-31, which is roughly twice the climatological average:
There is nothing all that extraordinary about the CONUS pattern. As expected, there's troughing in the west with ridging across the East/Southeast. What was a bit interesting to me was the presence of negative height anomalies in eastern Canada. This is associated with what I would consider downstream blocking. With this blocking, the pattern, based on the historical cases, has remained stagnant for 1-2 weeks, allowing for trough after trough to impinge on the Plains. The end result is a very active period for severe weather in the Plains in mid to late May.
What led me to do some of this research were the calls, by some, for a historical chase period coming up. Even if the models are correct, mesoscale details are important with respect to tornado occurrence. With that said, the synoptic pattern, at least what's modeled, is very encouraging for storm chasing prospects. The updated CPC day 6-10 graphic shows a pattern that you would like to see and 5/23/08 comes up as an analog, which was near the beginning of the historic 2008 stretch.
Note the bottom image above is the GEFS day 8-12 mean, which brings us into the middle and end of next week.
I prefer the Euro ensembles for the long range, but there is fair agreement between the suites, which is encouraging. Plus, I'm not sure that Euro EPS data can be posted here, as it is not data that is freely available to the public.
I would hesitate to call the upcoming trend historic or to say that we will even see a tornado outbreak. I also caution against looking too much at point forecast soundings for next week (well over 120 hours out). Those calls for high risks are silly, in my opinion, as a lot can change.
With all of this said, the pattern is very encouraging. It's hard to argue against an at or above average period of tornado activity, beginning on May 17th and lasting for at least 7-10 days. The details, which will differentiate between a slightly above active period and a well above average period are still yet to be determined. My final advice is to not get too caught up in specifics for more than 2-3 days out. A lot can and most likely will change, both in the model solutions and in the observed weather conditions across the Plains.
Visit the link below if you want to read more about what I found out about late May tornado activity in the plains:
Peak Tornado Season: Active or Quiet?
From there, I assessed the most active periods for tornadoes in the Plains, as well as the least active.
I won't spoil all of the results, but I will share this image that shows the mean pattern in the five most active periods, which included, not in this order, May 21-30, 2016, May 23-28, 2015, May 18-25, 2010, May 22-29, 2008 and May 16-30, 2004. These years averaged 166 tornadoes from May 16-31, which is roughly twice the climatological average:
There is nothing all that extraordinary about the CONUS pattern. As expected, there's troughing in the west with ridging across the East/Southeast. What was a bit interesting to me was the presence of negative height anomalies in eastern Canada. This is associated with what I would consider downstream blocking. With this blocking, the pattern, based on the historical cases, has remained stagnant for 1-2 weeks, allowing for trough after trough to impinge on the Plains. The end result is a very active period for severe weather in the Plains in mid to late May.
What led me to do some of this research were the calls, by some, for a historical chase period coming up. Even if the models are correct, mesoscale details are important with respect to tornado occurrence. With that said, the synoptic pattern, at least what's modeled, is very encouraging for storm chasing prospects. The updated CPC day 6-10 graphic shows a pattern that you would like to see and 5/23/08 comes up as an analog, which was near the beginning of the historic 2008 stretch.
Note the bottom image above is the GEFS day 8-12 mean, which brings us into the middle and end of next week.
I prefer the Euro ensembles for the long range, but there is fair agreement between the suites, which is encouraging. Plus, I'm not sure that Euro EPS data can be posted here, as it is not data that is freely available to the public.
I would hesitate to call the upcoming trend historic or to say that we will even see a tornado outbreak. I also caution against looking too much at point forecast soundings for next week (well over 120 hours out). Those calls for high risks are silly, in my opinion, as a lot can change.
With all of this said, the pattern is very encouraging. It's hard to argue against an at or above average period of tornado activity, beginning on May 17th and lasting for at least 7-10 days. The details, which will differentiate between a slightly above active period and a well above average period are still yet to be determined. My final advice is to not get too caught up in specifics for more than 2-3 days out. A lot can and most likely will change, both in the model solutions and in the observed weather conditions across the Plains.
Visit the link below if you want to read more about what I found out about late May tornado activity in the plains:
Peak Tornado Season: Active or Quiet?
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Alex Elmore
EF2
One thing to keep in mind regarding the SPC Day 4-8 Outlook and its historical significance in that it's the first of its kind: SPC outlooks are not a steady, objective measure when looking back at events/patterns over the last decade. Human bias that is different in each forecaster will cause differences in outlook issuance and magnitude to some degree. Additionally, the guidance available has changed over the years, as well as SPC's minimum probability in the day 4-8 period (used to be 30%). Given the right forecaster, the guidance we have at our disposal today, and SPC's current methods of Day 4-8 outlook issuance, there very well could have been outlooks that looked like this in the past. The outlooks also have to verify, but that's a whole other conversation.
While it is definitely promising and great to finally see a pattern like this, the hype I've seen on social media of it being the severe pattern to end all severe patterns is a bit too much. For those not able to chase during this stretch: there will be other chances. Just because a pattern screams severe does not mean it will necessarily yield photogenic storms or tornadoes either. I've had to sit out a lot of events for various reasons, and I know the anxiety caused by not being able to chase them. However, there's always been great storms after that still.
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