Dan Cook
EF5
Hello Blizzard: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...ours=hr168hr180
Joel looks decent for us for once.
Joel looks decent for us for once.
Potential for a Bomb Late This Week?
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
Robert Dewey
EF5
LOL... Just hope it doesn't do like this current one.
Well, I shouldn't speak yet... We still have another 3-4 days until this system decides to do what it wants to.
Well, I shouldn't speak yet... We still have another 3-4 days until this system decides to do what it wants to.
Joel Wright
EF5
Originally posted by Dan Cook
Hello Blizzard: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...ours=hr168hr180
Joel looks decent for us for once.
Haha, yeah I saw that too. It's so far out there though you know that will change.
At least there's a more active pattern now. It won't be long before something decent comes along. 8)
SOMEBODY CALL A DOCTOR!!! DEWEY HAS SDS SOMETHING AWFUL
dont worry i prob have it too im just in denial. Im fooling myself by going bananas over wildfires and droughts and just anything extreme.
dont worry i prob have it too im just in denial. Im fooling myself by going bananas over wildfires and droughts and just anything extreme.
Robert Dewey
EF5
LOL...
Well, I am ready to chalk this one up as another one that "bit the dust". Latest NAM is weak and in agreement with the previous GFS and GEM runs. I'm gonna quit looking at the model runs for the next 36 hours, and hope that when I return I see some radical changes :lol:
...Unlikely... But whatever LOL.
Well, I am ready to chalk this one up as another one that "bit the dust". Latest NAM is weak and in agreement with the previous GFS and GEM runs. I'm gonna quit looking at the model runs for the next 36 hours, and hope that when I return I see some radical changes :lol:
...Unlikely... But whatever LOL.
Joel Wright
EF5
Yup, even the bomb along the east coast is much less dramatic.
Like I said earlier, at least the weather seems to be waking up again with stronger storms moving across the country.
I'm under a winter weather advisory right now for freezing rain, although the temp has held steady all night at 34°. Looks to stay all rain to me.
The storm system next week is definitely something worth watching, although yet again this strong storm may be lacking the arctic air we need for a widespread snowstorm...
Like I said earlier, at least the weather seems to be waking up again with stronger storms moving across the country.
I'm under a winter weather advisory right now for freezing rain, although the temp has held steady all night at 34°. Looks to stay all rain to me.
The storm system next week is definitely something worth watching, although yet again this strong storm may be lacking the arctic air we need for a widespread snowstorm...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well... I lied, and I checked the models... I'm addicted LOL.
The latest GEM and UKMET (and most likely the 00Z ECMWF) are now back to a more southerly shortwave with bombogenesis near or east of the Appalacians. GFS and NAM currently showing nothing... So, we still have the two main "camps".
I think tomorrow's 00Z THU run or perhaps the 12Z THU run should have ALOT better handle on things.
With regards to that next system... The GFS also wants to open that wave up as well. It does have decent arctic air to work with, but it looks like the track is pretty far west, so most places get into the warm air.
The latest GEM and UKMET (and most likely the 00Z ECMWF) are now back to a more southerly shortwave with bombogenesis near or east of the Appalacians. GFS and NAM currently showing nothing... So, we still have the two main "camps".
I think tomorrow's 00Z THU run or perhaps the 12Z THU run should have ALOT better handle on things.
With regards to that next system... The GFS also wants to open that wave up as well. It does have decent arctic air to work with, but it looks like the track is pretty far west, so most places get into the warm air.
Robert Dewey
EF5
The latest UKMET and ECMWF now indicating better cyclogenesis with a strong SFC low (985-989MB on the UKMET) near CLE. Canadian GEM also developing a SFC low with a similar track, but only deepening to 998MB. The NAM and GFS are slowly trending toward that direction after a lengthy bout of showing nothing. Not yet sure how much, if any, cold air will be involved on the northwest side of the system... But the GEM shows p-type being snow given the forecast thickness... I would think that a strong(er) solution might allow even more cold air to filter in with stronger baroclonicity.
HPC is sticking with an ECMWF/UKMET solution currently stating the ensemble members support either solution (weak/further north, intense/further south).
HPC is sticking with an ECMWF/UKMET solution currently stating the ensemble members support either solution (weak/further north, intense/further south).
Dan Cook
EF5
Hmm..Davenport mentions "at least 4-6 inches" next week..
Joel Wright
EF5
Well Mr. Cook, and everyone else in the midwest....Monday night into Tuesday is still within the realm of possibility for a decent fall of snow somewhere in the midwest.
The models have been all over the place with certain features, but they all agree on a strong storm moving through the midwest early in the week. Precipitation fields are still all over the place, and unfortunately the swath of snow will be relatively small. Confined to a narrow band a few hundred miles left of where the low ultimately tracks.
Now that the storm system is onshore, hopefully the next two runs will line things up more consistantly. I will be anxiously awaiting the 00z runs tonight, and especially tomorrow's 12z.
If the NAM is correct, their could be a band of heavy wet snow about 200 miles left of the track...
Come on baby! 8)
The models have been all over the place with certain features, but they all agree on a strong storm moving through the midwest early in the week. Precipitation fields are still all over the place, and unfortunately the swath of snow will be relatively small. Confined to a narrow band a few hundred miles left of where the low ultimately tracks.
Now that the storm system is onshore, hopefully the next two runs will line things up more consistantly. I will be anxiously awaiting the 00z runs tonight, and especially tomorrow's 12z.
If the NAM is correct, their could be a band of heavy wet snow about 200 miles left of the track...
Come on baby! 8)
Robert Dewey
EF5
This certainly has been one of the rainest / least snowiest January's that I can remember...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Unfortunately Joel, this is how it's gonna go down whether the models like it or not... Just like every other storm this January -
Warm air will surge ahead of the system leaving me on the warm side and you guys on the cold side. The barolinic zone will be quite tight, but the precipitation won't completely penetrate into the cold air. This will leave me with a nice steady rain of around an inch, with you guys getting an inch or so of snow - not enough to even make it worth your trouble of watching the storm evolve, and a waste IMO... :x :x :lol:
That's not a forecast, just a summary of what has occured over the past 15-20 days and a climatological forecast.
Warm air will surge ahead of the system leaving me on the warm side and you guys on the cold side. The barolinic zone will be quite tight, but the precipitation won't completely penetrate into the cold air. This will leave me with a nice steady rain of around an inch, with you guys getting an inch or so of snow - not enough to even make it worth your trouble of watching the storm evolve, and a waste IMO... :x :x :lol:
That's not a forecast, just a summary of what has occured over the past 15-20 days and a climatological forecast.
Joel Wright
EF5
Well the models have all come into agreement on a much further southeast track of the storm system. This leaves most of the midwest with nothing more than passing clouds and maybe a spit of rain.
There may still be a band of decent snowfall in the eastern great lakes. But as good as the models are performing, who knows for sure where and if it will even happen.
I'm heading out to the garage now to drain the gasoline from the snowblower, and prepare to put it into hibernation.
Apparently I won't be needing it AGAIN this year...
There may still be a band of decent snowfall in the eastern great lakes. But as good as the models are performing, who knows for sure where and if it will even happen.
I'm heading out to the garage now to drain the gasoline from the snowblower, and prepare to put it into hibernation.
Apparently I won't be needing it AGAIN this year...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Yeah, I'm still watching this storm... And the one behind it. The GFS really dumps some heavy QPF with the next storm with impressive mid level lift (on the order of 15-20ubars/s for an extended period).
Both of these systems have the classic high pressure to the north and a pretty tight baroclinic zone to work with...
Both of these systems have the classic high pressure to the north and a pretty tight baroclinic zone to work with...
Joel Wright
EF5
Yeah, I noticed that one too. At 144hrs the GFS has us getting nailed with heavy snow. That seems to be the ultimate kiss of death. If the GFS indicates snowstorm around 120-150 hrs out, you will get screwed lol..
