4/20/22 to 4/24/22 severe potential

[Ray Walker]

Well I figured I might as well get this started. This time frame has some potential however the big issue here is going to be 2 major issues with each consecutive day. First issue is of coarse Capping across the warm sector on each day. These Lanina years seem to usually be good years for chasing and severe weather however they can also be bad for chasing. The biggest reason I have found is capping issues across the plains. This major capping issue stems from VERY dry and hot conditions in the SW US and portions of the southern plains. This year is no exception given the extreme drought and unusually warm/hot dry environment across much of the southern plains and the SW US. We can get some major events in these types of patterns given upper air flow/synoptic environment and strong capping but to much capping can put the kibosh on many setups in a Lanina year across the plains. The second issue I see is Wave timing which we have also had issues with this year across the plains along with Capping. Both of these issues seem to be present during this period given model data. However I do think we will see at least Isolated to scattered severe/supercell storms from mid week possibly into the weekend across the plains. We will have good low level moisture, good instability and Steep lapse rates, Great directional shear, and decent to good speed shear present on most if not all of these days. The Friday 4/22/22, Saturday 4/23/22 timeframe has the best potential in my opinion for widespread potentially significant severe and so far the timing of this system in model land looks much better than this last system. Actually it looks very simular in terms of a powerful negatively tilted trough ejection just like the last system. If the models are correct and this systems timing of ejection is onto something, and ejects out across the warm sector of the plains correctly then this day has real potential to be a big deal from parts of Nebraska south into at least Oklahoma. The moisture/Instability looks good, Shear profiles scream Big day, But capping looks strong and will need this thing to come out of the Rockies on time to give us a decent severe event.

 

[B Faletti]

I'm eager to hear others' thoughts on this stretch. I left some thoughts on AmericanWx which would be neat to get a ball rolling with here:

Friday is a potentially very interesting day on the High Plains. At first glance, it has many of the looks of an extensive dryline tornado event from McCook to Lubbock with another appealing triple point play into the Sandhills, but wave timing and other factors will probably preclude this caliber of event. I'm particularly interested to see if we can pull something off here in the TX Panhandle, but am worried that the NAMs are undermixing up and down the dryline and overdoing the moisture. Capping isn't progged to be particularly strong down here, a nice change of pace given the extreme drought. Forcing might not be particularly strong, though, either. Moisture and CI aside, the ceiling is potentially high should things align sufficiently. A slightly earlier wave timing would aid things here *a lot*. Otherwise, I'm hopeful for somewhat late CI with a couple supercells maturing near Amarillo just as hodographs enlarge and LCLs lower around sunset.

 

[Mike Smith]

I think the SPC forecast of tornadoes (along with giant hail) within a 70 mi radius of Kingman, KS tomorrow is interesting. It could be a significant warm front play with a nice low pressure system near P28. Heights fall rather significantly over Kansas through the day Thursday (21st). The Baron mesoscale model has high rotation potential tomorrow afternoon and evening from Salina to just south of Wichita.

 

[Andrew Butler]

Another case of a day late and a dollar short if you ask me, but we play with what we are given. Considering, once again, a la the script of the last decade, that high latitude blocking- that never showed up all winter but is suddenly appearing- may squash hopes for a couple weeks at least, if not the first half of May... I'm considering giving this a go.

Being interested in the northern part of this system, in my home turf, if we take a blend of the nam, euro and canadian, it's not entirely out of the question as the low deepens and occludes that a northeast arcing broken line of supercells would develop Saturday afternoon across the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota on the bent back portion of the front. Shear looks good enough and this looks very much like many early season events that have produced up here historically. The Canadian is most likely in la-la land with its depiction of surface dewpoints near 70 pooling along the front (unless it is picking up on snowmelt! ), but low 60s would probably get it done this time of year up here.

Here's to hoping you guys down south get some dryline cells to pop off in the next few days.

 

[Derek Weston]

Like others have been saying, looks largely miss-timed with upper support and questionable quality of moisture/instability. That said... TX/OK panhandle region along with the WF up into NE/SD look to have most potential. Good turning with height for rotating storms. If moisture is in place and cap goes early enough, could see something interesting. Surprised SPC went 2% on tornadoes last night. Wouldn't be surprised to see that bumped up, especially in noted areas.

 

[B Faletti]

Well, the 00z HRRR initiates now, in line with all other previous CAM guidance. Take for moisture, the modeled parameter space is impressive. Still wondering if it's overmixing, though. Either way, I think a structure show not far off of today's caliber is in the cards given small low-level RH and moderate CIN. I really don't know what to think, verbatim, of the tornado threat except that if we overperform and achieve >60 dews in the Panhandles, great things might happen.