Ray Walker
Enthusiast
Well I figured I might as well get this started. This time frame has some potential however the big issue here is going to be 2 major issues with each consecutive day. First issue is of coarse Capping across the warm sector on each day. These Lanina years seem to usually be good years for chasing and severe weather however they can also be bad for chasing. The biggest reason I have found is capping issues across the plains. This major capping issue stems from VERY dry and hot conditions in the SW US and portions of the southern plains. This year is no exception given the extreme drought and unusually warm/hot dry environment across much of the southern plains and the SW US. We can get some major events in these types of patterns given upper air flow/synoptic environment and strong capping but to much capping can put the kibosh on many setups in a Lanina year across the plains. The second issue I see is Wave timing which we have also had issues with this year across the plains along with Capping. Both of these issues seem to be present during this period given model data. However I do think we will see at least Isolated to scattered severe/supercell storms from mid week possibly into the weekend across the plains. We will have good low level moisture, good instability and Steep lapse rates, Great directional shear, and decent to good speed shear present on most if not all of these days. The Friday 4/22/22, Saturday 4/23/22 timeframe has the best potential in my opinion for widespread potentially significant severe and so far the timing of this system in model land looks much better than this last system. Actually it looks very simular in terms of a powerful negatively tilted trough ejection just like the last system. If the models are correct and this systems timing of ejection is onto something, and ejects out across the warm sector of the plains correctly then this day has real potential to be a big deal from parts of Nebraska south into at least Oklahoma. The moisture/Instability looks good, Shear profiles scream Big day, But capping looks strong and will need this thing to come out of the Rockies on time to give us a decent severe event.