Potential active plains period next week...

[nickgrillo]

The GFS has been in pretty good agreement from run to run, with a deepening trough bringing in strong flow over the southern plains by mid-week. This trough will also help in significant moisture return, with a narrow moist axis containing >60 Td's across TX/OK/KS by Wednesday per the latest GFS. This deep gulf moisture, when combined with low 80's temperatures, should yield sufficiant instability. In addition, the strong speed/rotation through a rather deep-layer will support organized severe thunderstorms... And given the strength of this system at this time of year, it could spell out a classic "fall" event. It's WAY to early to tell yet, but I just that I'd open a thread for free discussion for this system...

--> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I looked at it, but noticed the northeasterly flow across the entire eastern Gulf of Mexico that the GFS is forecasting until Tuesday night.... That screams "recirculated continental air" (or modified), that we all know so well from this spring (and 2002).

 

[Karen Politte]

Boy if all I looked at was 500mb flow I'd be getting excited.....wish it was May LOL.

Actually - my main worry with this setup is that the main mechanism will be cold front. I looked at the surface temps and it screams cold front to me. I've chased enough anafront junk to shy away from that sort of setup.....but all will become clearer nearer the time I guess.

KR

 

[bill mudd]

yea I kinda have to agree with Karen, arent we alil late in the year to expect anything more than some cold core sups?
However, given all the strange global weather ANYTHING is possible, I'd have to be in TX right now b4 I'd sign up for a chase....

Keep ther heat on.....who knows?

 

[Andy Wehrle]

arent we alil late in the year to expect anything more than some cold core sups?

Nine words:

October 4, 1998
October 9, 2001
October 24, 2001

It's not over till it's over.

 

[mikegeukes]

Started new thread:
http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8833

Mike

 

[bill mudd]

Thanks for the stats Mike - on average about 1 per October if I read it right, not an overly impressive number but none the less a number.

I know its way out on the models so we will need a few more days for unfolding, however at least its something more than we have had ...
I don't think thee has been an SPC hail/wind report in 3 days!

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I am not terribly excited about this system, but it would definitely be a chase day if the GFS verified. Due to the stacked low, there is poor directional shear, which does not bode well for tornado potential. The cold core target could be there though. I am hoping the upper level low will evolve as more of an open wave. If this happens and we get decent moisture, we might be in business.

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
Boy if all I looked at was 500mb flow I'd be getting excited.....wish it was May LOL.

Actually - my main worry with this setup is that the main mechanism will be cold front. I looked at the surface temps and it screams cold front to me. I've chased enough anafront junk to shy away from that sort of setup.....but all will become clearer nearer the time I guess.

KR

No, it's not... A pronounced dryline develops across western KS/OK/TX by Wednesday, with the cold front being much further to the north, roughly located from northern IL into western OK. I'd have to agree on the rather poor directional shear, yet this event is still nearly a week away - so it has plenty of time to shape up.

Dryline --> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_dewp.gif
Coldfront --> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_temp.gif

 

[Brett Adair]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Karen Rhoden

Boy if all I looked at was 500mb flow I'd be getting excited.....wish it was May LOL.

Actually - my main worry with this setup is that the main mechanism will be cold front. I looked at the surface temps and it screams cold front to me. I've chased enough anafront junk to shy away from that sort of setup.....but all will become clearer nearer the time I guess.

KR

No, it's not... A pronounced dryline develops across western KS/OK/TX by Wednesday, with the cold front being much further to the north, roughly located from northern IL into western OK. I'd have to agree on the rather poor directional shear, yet this event is still nearly a week away - so it has plenty of time to shape up.

Dryline --> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_dewp.gif
Coldfront -->http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs156hr_sfc_temp.gif[/b]

Well, you have the dryline going for you. The SFC low deepens a bit and you have increased low level shear not to mention these long term models do not pinpoint mesolow's at all. I think it has a descent chance to shape up into something. Here in Alabama we are known for our fall/winter torando outbreaks. Some to mention...

12/16/2000
11/25/2001
11/10/2002
11/24/2004

More in the making??? All of our systems came out of the southern/central plains.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

156 hours out.... we'll see if the dryline forecast verifies

Aaron

 

[Anthony Silver]

I'm not getting my hopes up on this one either. Things just aren't looking too favorable for a "major" outbreak at this point. I think there may be some potential for a few isolated events at best, but the scenario right now doesn't look too favor anything widespread.

I guess this late in the year, my confidence goes way down on these systems, especially if they're several days out. Bill's right though, anything could happen since the climate has been really screwy the past few years. Something worth watching though.

 

[Karen Politte]

Originally posted by Aaron Kennedy
156 hours out.... we'll see if the dryline forecast verifies

Aaron

It won't. :wink:

KR

 

[Sam Sagnella]

FWIW, the CPC's updated hazards map indicates a severe weather threat from the 19 to 22 from C/E Neb southward to include the nrn 2/3 of TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ats/threats.gif

 

[Mickey Ptak]

GFS has been pretty persistent with a DL setup from W OK down through TX. Now whether or not it will stay that way is up in the air (let’s hope it doesn't take KRs thoughts to heart :wink: ). It's so hard to focus on what is good about this system being that is still so far out, but attm I do not like the 3km directional shear which is typical of these cold core setups. Plus, as usual, moisture will be of concern.

Regardless of how it looks now I am still making plans to take off work. Better safe than sorry. Man could I use another Oct tornado. It's been far to long....

Mick