Hurricane Alpha on the Way???

[HAltschule]

Long range GFS run from 18z shows a tropical system entering the southern Bahamas in 10-14 days. This could be the record breaking storm if the model is correct with there being a system there in 14 days.

And why would the GFS mislead us 384 hours out?

 

[Sam Sagnella]

With the GFS' "I'm on crack" approach to forecasting Wilma, I don't want to put too much faith in this yet. That being said, however, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see our first ever Alpha come from the Bahamas/Caribbean region before the end of October.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

We have a new invest (99L) that is passing thru the windward/leeward islands and into the ern Caribbean. The 12z SHIPS has this becoming TS Alpha in 36hr...but we shall see. The only real impediment I see to this developing is the shear brought on by the close proximity to Hurricane Wilma. However, even this isn't enough to prevent at least minor further development and it already appears that the convection is consolodating a bit...ooooooh...Alpha????

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

36 hours would be nice, since I predicted October 23rd for the development of Alpha in that little contest we had a bit ago. :wink:

 

[B Ozanne]

Very much so! TD 25 is now on the books and TS warnings/watches are up for Hispaniola and the Bahamas.

 

[Scott Olson]

What a record breaking year. And we even have the prospects of a possible Hurricane Alpha!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

See the FCST post in Map Room -- we have Alpha. Advisories will be initiated at 5pm. For those who are interested...

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lambda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omicron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega

I must say, Hurricane Psi sounds cool!

 

[Sam Sagnella]

I never thought the day would come when I would see this on the NHC homepage:

 

[Marko Korosec]

Sam,
me neither...but remember...its 2005, so everything...really everything is possible!

I just found one interesting site about possible collision of Wilma and Alpha on Tuesday: http://thestormtrack.com/archives/2005/10/...tlantic_co.html

What's next? This year is just incredible!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Marko Korosec

What's next? This year is just incredible!

A few of the models develop another system in the sw Caribbean in a few days --> http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...sure&hour=132hr

Cmon Beta! :lol: OK, OK, OK, I give it a 2% change that this'll happen... Models do a poor job of handling tropical genesis to begin with, much less 5 days in advance.

 

[Andrew Khan]

I wonder in Alpha will be upgraded, it status.....this year is....nuts..

 

[David Wolfson]

That's one sweet tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands! Gamma may be on the way. It seems to be pushing its own diffluent environment out ahead of it and it's bound for the deep well of eastern Caribbean TCHP. Oy.