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Guys, when the first real outbreak of 2005?

well I land DFW next Saturday (7 May) for three weeks of chasing with another 3 in our team - god I hope this aweful looking HP situatiuon diminishes by then.
 
Who cares about outbreaks? We're chasing any day there's good tornado potential, period. Outbreaks are easy tornado producers but they are logistical headaches. I'd sooner wish for another May 3, 2003 than an outbreak. But come what may, we'll be out there.
 
Originally posted by Shane Adams
Who cares about outbreaks? We're chasing any day there's good tornado potential, period. Outbreaks are easy tornado producers but they are logistical headaches.

Shane makes a good point. Outbreaks do not necessarily equal good chase days. If SPC puts out a high risk because numerous squall-line embedded, HP tornadic supercells are racing at 60 MPH through densely populated metro areas...that is an unchaseable situation (at least for everyone without a death wish) but it is likely to make the news as a "tornado outbreak" when a rain-wrapped F4 hits a downtown area in the middle of the night.

So the fact that 2005 has not yet had a "real" outbreak doesn't have to be a negative. There have still been good chase days with photogenic tornadoes (March 21, April 10 and April 21, which I believe is actually more than there were at this point last year) that did not cause widespread significant damage.
 
Hello All,
'
A few people noted that May 3rd / 4th will be good. I noticed on the HPC site that a cold front is going to go through on Monday May2nd and it looks like it's going pretty deep down south. So wouldn't that mean that our chances for severe weather whold be drasticly diminished?

What do you guys think?

B.p.
 
Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS say the first major out break may be as close as MAY 14th. In any event it definitely looks more conducive than the last 10 days have been.
 
I got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!
 
Originally posted by Ben Prusia
got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!

Dadgummit! You beat me to it! :p

Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:

Gabe
 
Originally posted by Gabe Garfield+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Gabe Garfield)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Ben Prusia
got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!

Dadgummit! You beat me to it! :p

Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:

Gabe[/b]

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... :evil:
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>
Originally posted by Gabe Garfield@
<!--QuoteBegin-Ben Prusia

got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!


Dadgummit! You beat me to it! :p

Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:

Gabe

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... :evil:[/b]

I'm with you Jeff. I wont be out int the alley till at least the 15th so this pattern has to wait till at least then. After that we can have a 10 days of May over the western great plains in western kansas, western oklahoma, and the panhandles. BTW, Jeff, this is the Chris Hayes you and Gabe talked to at the chaser convention 8)
 
Originally posted by Brian Press
Hello All,
'
A few people noted that May 3rd / 4th will be good. I noticed on the HPC site that a cold front is going to go through on Monday May2nd and it looks like it's going pretty deep down south. So wouldn't that mean that our chances for severe weather whold be drasticly diminished?

What do you guys think?

B.p.

I agree with you 100%. I'm no meteorologist, but after spending eight hours out in the blustery 40s WC conditions today with a screaming north wind, I don't see any real chase potential in the S Plains for at least 4-5 days. Even with some moisture recovery, the temps have been so low that any semblence of true, explosive instability seems even further away. But I'm just basing this on the current weather I'm experiencing in central Oklahoma, along with the trend thus far of a 3-5 day washout of the Gulf following all these overzealous cold fronts, which seem to have a craving for the GoM waters.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>
I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... [/b]

Originally posted by Chris Hayes@
I'm with you Jeff. I wont be out int the alley till at least the 15th so this pattern has to wait till at least then. After that we can have a 10 days of May over the western great plains in western kansas, western oklahoma, and the panhandles. BTW, Jeff, this is the Chris Hayes you and Gabe talked to at the chaser convention

<!--QuoteBegin-Chris Rozoff

Therefore, if I was to place money on a fun bet, I'd be willing to wager a little for the May11th-May 13th period. I'm pretty sad since the 12th is out of my possibilities.

Ahh, take heart, my vatos! The GFS is doing more flip flops than the 2004 democratic...no, I won't say that. :wink: GFS now advertises a ridge for that same time period.

I'm very interested to see what happens at the end of next week. I still think it could get quite interesting. We shall see.

Gabe
 
I have confidence in the pattern change to a trough in the west, but as for the particulars we obviously have to wait. By mid May we will have had about 4 weeks of this crumy polar vortex stuff and it will be time for a pattern change.
 
No way am I saying 'outbreak', but the GFS shows some potential on the central plains starting May 6th, and we'll have plenty of gulf moisture with this one....
 
I like what OUN said today:

BUT PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER MID-LEVEL SW FLOW AND A MORE SUSTAINED GULF RETURN FLOW SUGGEST A STEADILY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAINS SEVERE WX EVENTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

:D
 
I'm gonna jump on the mid-May bandwagon. The GFS does show a decent trough beginning to dig it's way in which gives some hope, but I think that it's still pretty much rubbish that has a chance of maybe coming true. 240 hrs out is quite the longshot, especially when earlier outputs look particularly botched, particularly 850 flow in the Rockies. But still, I will go for about that timeframe simply because I don't think that anything else at this point would really give me any kind of more educated guess.
 
I see that upper level storm system sitting in ND/SD for like 5 days from the 5th through the 9th, but I am hoping for that OUN's AFD pans out :)
 
LOL I found this to be funny... This morning's AFD from DDC NWSFO:

MADE ONLY SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST BY AROUND MIDWEEK. SO TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND TSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR YOU STORM CHASERS OUT THERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, SO THE FORECAST WASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOL I'm not sure I've ever read an AFD that has mentioned storm chasers... I was expecting to see Mike U. at the bottom of the the discussion, but I don't know who Lacy is...
 
LOL I found this to be funny... This morning's AFD from DDC NWSFO:

MADE ONLY SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST BY AROUND MIDWEEK. SO TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND TSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR YOU STORM CHASERS OUT THERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, SO THE FORECAST WASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOL I'm not sure I've ever read an AFD that has mentioned storm chasers... I was expecting to see Mike U. at the bottom of the the discussion, but I don't know who Lacy is...

That is funny that they mentioned storm chasers. LOL! I would have never imagined I would ever see that.

Mick
 
Yeah I read that as well. CLASSIC. Very cool. Hopefully we will get some Classic Sup's out there that week. The upper pattern in looking good.

B.p.
 
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