Guys, when the first real outbreak of 2005?

[Mickey Ptak]

Originally posted by Tony Laubach
It'll be after the 10th of May because my lucky #81 jersey won't be in the field til then! :wink:

I was wondering why the gulf has not opened up yet. Folks now you have it our atmosphere revolves around one key element and that is Tony's #81 shirt.

Personally I could wait until the 10th because I need to raise some more chase funds. lol

Here is my bucket - please give to the Semi Blind Storm Chaser Association. 8)

Mick

 

[Dan Cook]

Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Tony Laubach

It'll be after the 10th of May because my lucky #81 jersey won't be in the field til then! :wink:

Here is my bucket - please give to the Semi Blind Storm Chaser Association. 8)

Mick[/b]

Dance for me.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Dan if next week pans out I will dance for you for the low low price of only $999.99 tax deductable of course. lol!

I am keeping my fingers crossed for next week though. I need my chase fix real bad.

Mick

 

[Chris Hayes]

I dont know. I just want the weeks of May 16th, 23rd, and 30th to be excellent for severe weather because that's when I'll be in the Kansas/Oklahoma area. 17 days to go 8)

 

[Bobby Lang]

Well, I'm aiming for friday the 13th (my birthday) :shock: .

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Originally posted by Bobby Lang
Well, I'm aiming for friday the 13th (my birthday) :shock: .

So happy birthday, Bobby, I hope we'll :wink: have a good chasing day, that day

 

[nickgrillo]

Possible active days that I'm seeing would be the 29th, 3rd and 4th. The 3rd is looking very good, and if it continues the way it looks, then it'll be a outbreak... There should be plenty of gulf moisture to work with this...

 

[Jay McCreery]

Does anyone want the opinion of a complete rookie? I'm now planning my first chase and have one chance to get it right, driving from Massachusetts. My window is limited, so I need to catch the first breakout causing that nice steep rise in the annual tornado stats. I've learned all my meteorology from you folks on ST, so if I screw up, it's your fault. I'm now looking at May 7 in OK/KS. The GFS shows a moderate trough, moisture return should be good, and with a nice dry line set up. Upper level winds look like the jets could converge over the area at that time. My feeling is that this event will develop further as the model verifies. Is this my Perfect Storm?

 

[bvassmer]

all I can say, gimme some storms the week of May 15th.... that is my week off, and my chase week........... hopehope..praypray...

 

[William Rayner]

outbreak

It would be nice for all of you already on the scene to have an outbreak in early May, but I'm pulling for one after May 19, when our plane lands in Oklahoma City for our annual 2-week chase.

 

[Matthew Hatton]

well I land DFW next Saturday (7 May) for three weeks of chasing with another 3 in our team - god I hope this aweful looking HP situatiuon diminishes by then.

 

[Shane Adams]

Who cares about outbreaks? We're chasing any day there's good tornado potential, period. Outbreaks are easy tornado producers but they are logistical headaches. I'd sooner wish for another May 3, 2003 than an outbreak. But come what may, we'll be out there.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
Who cares about outbreaks? We're chasing any day there's good tornado potential, period. Outbreaks are easy tornado producers but they are logistical headaches.

Shane makes a good point. Outbreaks do not necessarily equal good chase days. If SPC puts out a high risk because numerous squall-line embedded, HP tornadic supercells are racing at 60 MPH through densely populated metro areas...that is an unchaseable situation (at least for everyone without a death wish) but it is likely to make the news as a "tornado outbreak" when a rain-wrapped F4 hits a downtown area in the middle of the night.

So the fact that 2005 has not yet had a "real" outbreak doesn't have to be a negative. There have still been good chase days with photogenic tornadoes (March 21, April 10 and April 21, which I believe is actually more than there were at this point last year) that did not cause widespread significant damage.

 

[Brian Press]

Hello All,
'
A few people noted that May 3rd / 4th will be good. I noticed on the HPC site that a cold front is going to go through on Monday May2nd and it looks like it's going pretty deep down south. So wouldn't that mean that our chances for severe weather whold be drasticly diminished?

What do you guys think?

B.p.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS say the first major out break may be as close as MAY 14th. In any event it definitely looks more conducive than the last 10 days have been.