Guys, when the first real outbreak of 2005?

[Ben Prusia]

I got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Originally posted by Ben Prusia
got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!

Dadgummit! You beat me to it!

Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:

Gabe

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Gabe Garfield+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Gabe Garfield)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Ben Prusia

got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!

Dadgummit! You beat me to it!

Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:

Gabe[/b]

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... :evil:

 

[Chris Hayes]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

Originally posted by Gabe Garfield@
<!--QuoteBegin-Ben Prusia

got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!

Dadgummit! You beat me to it!

Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:

Gabe

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... :evil:[/b]

I'm with you Jeff. I wont be out int the alley till at least the 15th so this pattern has to wait till at least then. After that we can have a 10 days of May over the western great plains in western kansas, western oklahoma, and the panhandles. BTW, Jeff, this is the Chris Hayes you and Gabe talked to at the chaser convention 8)

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Brian Press
Hello All,
'
A few people noted that May 3rd / 4th will be good. I noticed on the HPC site that a cold front is going to go through on Monday May2nd and it looks like it's going pretty deep down south. So wouldn't that mean that our chances for severe weather whold be drasticly diminished?

What do you guys think?

B.p.

I agree with you 100%. I'm no meteorologist, but after spending eight hours out in the blustery 40s WC conditions today with a screaming north wind, I don't see any real chase potential in the S Plains for at least 4-5 days. Even with some moisture recovery, the temps have been so low that any semblence of true, explosive instability seems even further away. But I'm just basing this on the current weather I'm experiencing in central Oklahoma, along with the trend thus far of a 3-5 day washout of the Gulf following all these overzealous cold fronts, which seem to have a craving for the GoM waters.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... [/b]

Originally posted by Chris Hayes@
I'm with you Jeff. I wont be out int the alley till at least the 15th so this pattern has to wait till at least then. After that we can have a 10 days of May over the western great plains in western kansas, western oklahoma, and the panhandles. BTW, Jeff, this is the Chris Hayes you and Gabe talked to at the chaser convention

<!--QuoteBegin-Chris Rozoff
Therefore, if I was to place money on a fun bet, I'd be willing to wager a little for the May11th-May 13th period. I'm pretty sad since the 12th is out of my possibilities.

Ahh, take heart, my vatos! The GFS is doing more flip flops than the 2004 democratic...no, I won't say that. :wink: GFS now advertises a ridge for that same time period.

I'm very interested to see what happens at the end of next week. I still think it could get quite interesting. We shall see.

Gabe

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I have confidence in the pattern change to a trough in the west, but as for the particulars we obviously have to wait. By mid May we will have had about 4 weeks of this crumy polar vortex stuff and it will be time for a pattern change.

 

[nickgrillo]

No way am I saying 'outbreak', but the GFS shows some potential on the central plains starting May 6th, and we'll have plenty of gulf moisture with this one....

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I like what OUN said today:

BUT PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER MID-LEVEL SW FLOW AND A MORE SUSTAINED GULF RETURN FLOW SUGGEST A STEADILY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAINS SEVERE WX EVENTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Right now...I would have to pick May 15, 2006.....

 

[Melissa Moon]

I'm gonna jump on the mid-May bandwagon. The GFS does show a decent trough beginning to dig it's way in which gives some hope, but I think that it's still pretty much rubbish that has a chance of maybe coming true. 240 hrs out is quite the longshot, especially when earlier outputs look particularly botched, particularly 850 flow in the Rockies. But still, I will go for about that timeframe simply because I don't think that anything else at this point would really give me any kind of more educated guess.

 

[mrobinett]

I like what OUN said today:

ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAINS SEVERE WX EVENTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

YESSSS!!!!!!

Lookin better all the time!!!

 

[Ben Prusia]

I see that upper level storm system sitting in ND/SD for like 5 days from the 5th through the 9th, but I am hoping for that OUN's AFD pans out

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Well, 2003 was early may...2004 was late May...why not give mid-May a shot.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

LOL I found this to be funny... This morning's AFD from DDC NWSFO:

MADE ONLY SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST BY AROUND MIDWEEK. SO TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND TSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR YOU STORM CHASERS OUT THERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, SO THE FORECAST WASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOL I'm not sure I've ever read an AFD that has mentioned storm chasers... I was expecting to see Mike U. at the bottom of the the discussion, but I don't know who Lacy is...