Ben Prusia
EF4
I got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!
Originally posted by Ben Prusia
got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!
Originally posted by Gabe Garfield+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Gabe Garfield)</div><!--QuoteBegin-Ben Prusiagot my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!
Dadgummit! You beat me to it!![]()
Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:
Gabe[/b]
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>Originally posted by Gabe Garfield@
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got my eyes on May 11-May 13 somewhere in Nebraska, at least that is what the evil GFS model tells me. If that is true, it would go perfect for the start of Tony's May-A-Thon!
Dadgummit! You beat me to it!![]()
Yeah, it looks like the GFS is finally advertising a more chaser-friendly solution for the long term. Particularly the 12Z GFS, which progs a rather awesome looking negatively tilted shortwave trough over the west coast with a diving jet streak in the entrance region some time around May 11th. If this verifies, we'll all be in chaser heaven (synoptically, quite reminiscent of 5/29/04, 5/3/99, 4/26/91). The trouble will be getting it to verify 300 hours out! :lol:
Gabe
I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... :evil:[/b]
Originally posted by Brian Press
Hello All,
'
A few people noted that May 3rd / 4th will be good. I noticed on the HPC site that a cold front is going to go through on Monday May2nd and it looks like it's going pretty deep down south. So wouldn't that mean that our chances for severe weather whold be drasticly diminished?
What do you guys think?
B.p.
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>I'm sorry, I'm going to have to change the pattern temporarily... This CANNOT and WILL NOT happen during the May 12-15 period. This is the ONLY stretch of time in May during which I cannot chase. Therefore, being selfish as I am, I cannot allow this pattern and solution to verify. My apologies... [/b]
Originally posted by Chris Hayes@
I'm with you Jeff. I wont be out int the alley till at least the 15th so this pattern has to wait till at least then. After that we can have a 10 days of May over the western great plains in western kansas, western oklahoma, and the panhandles. BTW, Jeff, this is the Chris Hayes you and Gabe talked to at the chaser convention
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Therefore, if I was to place money on a fun bet, I'd be willing to wager a little for the May11th-May 13th period. I'm pretty sad since the 12th is out of my possibilities.
BUT PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER MID-LEVEL SW FLOW AND A MORE SUSTAINED GULF RETURN FLOW SUGGEST A STEADILY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAINS SEVERE WX EVENTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
I like what OUN said today:
ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PLAINS SEVERE WX EVENTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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MADE ONLY SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST BY AROUND MIDWEEK. SO TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND TSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR YOU STORM CHASERS OUT THERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, SO THE FORECAST WASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND.