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Guys, when the first real outbreak of 2005?

I'm talking about the usual strong outbreak that develops at the end of April or during the first days of may.
As regards to me the first outbreak will develop on April 30th. Damn! I will be on the great Plains only from may 2nd :) Hope to be wrong :wink:
And you? What do you think about?Let's guess.
 
GFS continues to be supportive of a active early May, therefore, we'll probably see out first 'outbreak' in the first half of May...
 
I just got done looking at the data for the 30th, and may I add that it's looking pretty good for TX/OK, once again... Now if we could only get a bit better moisture, then Maybe...
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
I just got done looking at the data for the 30th, and may I add that it's looking pretty good for TX/OK, once again... Now if we could only get a bit better moisture, then Maybe...

Probable Nick....Seeing the new GFS maps, it looks like that an outbreak could develop between April 30th and May 5th.
From this map:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1681.png

It seems that already on may 2nd could occur something interesting, probably not an outbreak but something good: zonal flow is quite low, decent lift of moisture from the Gulf and probably a new cold air descent is getting ready. If things remain the same maybe for may 5th we could have the first real outbreak :wink: :D
 
My guess is that you guys in the Southern Plains will see something in the next 10 days. However it will likely be after May 7th until we see a more significant ENTIRE Central CONUS severe weather event...once this horrid pattern breaks down in favor of more western troughiness and a significant warmup up the Mississippi River Valley.

...Alex Lamers...
 
Originally posted by Alex Lamers
My guess is that you guys in the Southern Plains will see something in the next 10 days. However it will likely be after May 7th until we see a more significant ENTIRE Central CONUS severe weather event...once this horrid pattern breaks down in favor of more western troughiness and a significant warmup up the Mississippi River Valley.

...Alex Lamers...


Yes, I am a bit pessimistic as well. I would say the 2nd week of may would be my best guess as the first "real" outbreak.
 
I'm getting pretty fond for the 3rd/4th as well, and if it holds together, it spells outbreak....

29th looks pretty decent as well, and I'm looking towards eastern AR...
 
1st real outbreak

I think the first "real" outbreak of tornados will occur during the first week of May.
 
Well I can't say anything about the "first outbrake" but I do see some potential for May 3rd through the 5th also. I could care less if these days are outbrakes or not as long as the produce a few isolated and chasable supercells. I am just ready to chase again...

Mick
 
Originally posted by Tony Laubach
It'll be after the 10th of May because my lucky #81 jersey won't be in the field til then! :wink:

I was wondering why the gulf has not opened up yet. Folks now you have it our atmosphere revolves around one key element and that is Tony's #81 shirt. :p

Personally I could wait until the 10th because I need to raise some more chase funds. lol :(

Here is my bucket - please give to the Semi Blind Storm Chaser Association. 8)

Mick
 
Dan if next week pans out I will dance for you for the low low price of only $999.99 tax deductable of course. lol!

I am keeping my fingers crossed for next week though. I need my chase fix real bad.

Mick
 
I dont know. I just want the weeks of May 16th, 23rd, and 30th to be excellent for severe weather because that's when I'll be in the Kansas/Oklahoma area. 17 days to go 8)
 
Possible active days that I'm seeing would be the 29th, 3rd and 4th. The 3rd is looking very good, and if it continues the way it looks, then it'll be a outbreak... There should be plenty of gulf moisture to work with this...
 
Does anyone want the opinion of a complete rookie? I'm now planning my first chase and have one chance to get it right, driving from Massachusetts. My window is limited, so I need to catch the first breakout causing that nice steep rise in the annual tornado stats. I've learned all my meteorology from you folks on ST, so if I screw up, it's your fault. I'm now looking at May 7 in OK/KS. The GFS shows a moderate trough, moisture return should be good, and with a nice dry line set up. Upper level winds look like the jets could converge over the area at that time. My feeling is that this event will develop further as the model verifies. Is this my Perfect Storm?
 
all I can say, gimme some storms the week of May 15th.... that is my week off, and my chase week........... hopehope..praypray...
 
outbreak

It would be nice for all of you already on the scene to have an outbreak in early May, but I'm pulling for one after May 19, when our plane lands in Oklahoma City for our annual 2-week chase.
 
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