Guys, when the first real outbreak of 2005?

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm talking about the usual strong outbreak that develops at the end of April or during the first days of may.
As regards to me the first outbreak will develop on April 30th. Damn! I will be on the great Plains only from may 2nd Hope to be wrong :wink:
And you? What do you think about?Let's guess.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Well, OU finals are always a good time for an outbreak it seems. I will go with the May 10-12 area in that case.

 

[nickgrillo]

GFS continues to be supportive of a active early May, therefore, we'll probably see out first 'outbreak' in the first half of May...

 

[Mike Johnson]

May 7th.

Mike

 

[nickgrillo]

I just got done looking at the data for the 30th, and may I add that it's looking pretty good for TX/OK, once again... Now if we could only get a bit better moisture, then Maybe...

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
I just got done looking at the data for the 30th, and may I add that it's looking pretty good for TX/OK, once again... Now if we could only get a bit better moisture, then Maybe...

Probable Nick....Seeing the new GFS maps, it looks like that an outbreak could develop between April 30th and May 5th.
From this map:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1681.png

It seems that already on may 2nd could occur something interesting, probably not an outbreak but something good: zonal flow is quite low, decent lift of moisture from the Gulf and probably a new cold air descent is getting ready. If things remain the same maybe for may 5th we could have the first real outbreak :wink:

 

[Kurt Hulst]

May 3-4

 

[Alex Lamers]

My guess is that you guys in the Southern Plains will see something in the next 10 days. However it will likely be after May 7th until we see a more significant ENTIRE Central CONUS severe weather event...once this horrid pattern breaks down in favor of more western troughiness and a significant warmup up the Mississippi River Valley.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Mikel Shively]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
My guess is that you guys in the Southern Plains will see something in the next 10 days. However it will likely be after May 7th until we see a more significant ENTIRE Central CONUS severe weather event...once this horrid pattern breaks down in favor of more western troughiness and a significant warmup up the Mississippi River Valley.

...Alex Lamers...

Yes, I am a bit pessimistic as well. I would say the 2nd week of may would be my best guess as the first "real" outbreak.

 

[Ben Prusia]

I am thinking May 3rd over in OK/TX.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm getting pretty fond for the 3rd/4th as well, and if it holds together, it spells outbreak....

29th looks pretty decent as well, and I'm looking towards eastern AR...

 

[Craig Maire II]

1st real outbreak

I think the first "real" outbreak of tornados will occur during the first week of May.

 

[Tony Laubach]

It'll be after the 10th of May because my lucky #81 jersey won't be in the field til then! :wink:

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Well I can't say anything about the "first outbrake" but I do see some potential for May 3rd through the 5th also. I could care less if these days are outbrakes or not as long as the produce a few isolated and chasable supercells. I am just ready to chase again...

Mick

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm gonna have to go with late April, of next year :lol: