Sam Sagnella
EF5
Well, as of late Monday, KHOU.com is reporting that there's a voluntary evacuation in effect for Galveston Island, TX beginning at 2pm Tuesday. I am well aware that there is only one way on/off the island, but we're still ~5 days away from a potential landfall in the area. As we all know, from a forecasting POV, every tropical cyclone is a learning experience - especially one in the Gulf. The models flip and the models flop, eventually coming to a concrete and unwavering consensus around 48hrs out. With Katrina, the models shifted further and further east (eventually to near the FL big bend) before moving back to the west. Until Rita enters the Gulf (at the very earliest), we can't really jump to any conclusions as to how fast the blocking high over the NC Gulf coast will break down.
Katrina has been the media's most popular example of why we should begin evacuations earlier, but we also need to use Katrina as an example of how inaccurate the forecast models are 72+ hours out. False evacuations lead to complacency and raise the potential for future catastrophes. I don't mean to sound insensitive to those who are in the Galveston area and are rightfully worried about potential impacts, its just a very fine line that EM officials walk. If it turns out that Rita moves ashore elsewhere, thats great for the HGX area, but once a diverted storm or unnecessary evacuation order becomes engrained into John Q. Public's memory, it takes a lot for him to forget it. Hindsight, of course, is always 20/20.
P.S. - I'm not sure if I posted this in the right place.
Katrina has been the media's most popular example of why we should begin evacuations earlier, but we also need to use Katrina as an example of how inaccurate the forecast models are 72+ hours out. False evacuations lead to complacency and raise the potential for future catastrophes. I don't mean to sound insensitive to those who are in the Galveston area and are rightfully worried about potential impacts, its just a very fine line that EM officials walk. If it turns out that Rita moves ashore elsewhere, thats great for the HGX area, but once a diverted storm or unnecessary evacuation order becomes engrained into John Q. Public's memory, it takes a lot for him to forget it. Hindsight, of course, is always 20/20.
P.S. - I'm not sure if I posted this in the right place.