Future of the season part deux

[Warren Faidley]

Looking at the ECEP Ensemble:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spag_f216_nh.html

It looks like an active patten is about to occur with interesting systems around April 4, and more so, April 8th. DDC and SPC discussions also noted this in their latest outlooks. Hopefully, this will be a continuing trend in the next couple of months.

Warren

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

This last system that produced the prolific amounts of snow across parts of the southern and central high plains may just have enough of a bearing on the ET's as we head into spring. Initially, some of these systems that are progged to come out may be a tad moisture starved, hopefully the models will continue to trend on reversing some of these below average precip. anomalies. If so, I look forward to some active days in the month's ahead, especially the first half of April and the last half of May into June. I expect the northern and central plains north of I-80 and east of a Grand Island, Bismarck ND line on east to WI. and Il.; that area could be under the gun for a rough season this year.

For what little this may be worth, aside from the '71 blizzard that many folks compared this past blizzard to in Coldwater, KS. another great storm that occurred was in March 1957 across much of the same area. If you are a fan of analogues (still sitting on the fence when it comes to that), 1957 was an outrageous year for tornadoes.

A question I could pose on here is just how valuable are "analogues"? Is this a legit tool to forecasting long term weather trends? Maybe this would be worthy of starting another thread.

 

[nickgrillo]

I made a few posts about the systems in the other thread. It certainly looks like the first half of April could be quite active, given the degree of boundary layer moisture return projected by the long-range GFS.

 

[Jeff Passner]

I think the season has been exactly "normal" so far, although tornado totals are down a bit due to the cold winter. I think we need more "time" before the Central Plains start getting active. The Gulf is still getting hit by fronts, but this is normal for March/early April. There's nothing unusual so far about the waves, speed of the systems, lack of deep moisture. To me, everything is on target as far as tornado seasons go. I'm not sure if these late-season snow events really matter... A dry month of April will wipe out all that surface moisture anyway, but it is encouraging to see precipitation anywhere on the Plains. As we know, it is almost impossible to make any accurate weather forecasts beyond a few days, but so far I see nothing different than what we get in most years. How many storms there are in late May? Who knows...

Oh, one thing I do observe is how far south the subtropical jet has been in March. I'm not sure what that will mean in future weeks.

 

[Dave Marshall]

I was just looking at the SPC Storm Reports page today. 2009 is trending below normal for the overall number of severe reports, and about average for the number of tornadoes. Nowhere near last year's numbers of course.

Looking at the models, it does look like a more active pattern here in the Southeast is setting up. I see some real potential Thursday night (2 April) and maybe again on Sunday if the models bear out.

The season here started on time, but has been very slow overall. Lots of linear rain makers and MCSes, which I can't really complain about. We sure need the precip down here, and we've made up a big chunk of our deficit so far.

I won't complain if we get a couple good outbreaks in before the ridge builds in for the summer though.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think the season is getting to a pretty late start. Honestly, I think late May into early June is going to be the prime time through the southern plains. I really have no scientific basis for this, but I have recognized patterns along the way.

 

[Shane Adams]

I have no clue what the synoptic patterns will do in the future, but I'm quite pleased with the amount of precip events the Plains have had over the past several weeks. I know the drought is still in effect, but all the rain/snow from the past 3-4 weeks can't be hurting our chances any. I'm confident in the upper air pattern in the coming few weeks, but we're still fighting these damned diving cold fronts which keep wiping out the gulf. It would also be nice to see a dryline setup along the OK/TX pan border too, although I expect that may be wishcasting at this point considering how dry overall the TX pan has been this past winter.

Oh well, we'll all find out together over the next 8-12 weeks.

 

[mikegeukes]

Here is some links to maps about the Drought:

Drought Severity Index:
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/classify.htm

US Drought Monitor:
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

US Seasonal Drought Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Short Term Drought Indicator Blends:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/tools/edb/sbfinal.gif

Long Term Drought Indicator Blends:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/tools/edb/lbfinal.gif

Crop Moisture Index:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

Soil Moisture Anomaly:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/curr.w.mrf1.daily.gif

Soil Moisture Outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/cas_w_mon.lead1.gif

Seasonal Outlook: Precipitation and Temperature:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

 

[Derek Weston]

Right... looks to be an active period coming up with a number of respectable systems. Course, being on the northside of all this in Iowa... not quite as happy.

Don't know about severe potential though -- at least where the "good stuff" is concerned. Moisture return seems a big question mark. As Shane mentioned... cold fronts still seem to be wiping things out. (but we're still early... so)

For all the griping about the GFS on the 23rd setup, it did seem to accurately forecast the lackluster moisture we had to work with. And that's what I'm seeing for some of the systems in our immediate future here.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Yea todays GFS run looks gross as far as moisture goes concerning Saturdays potential setup in OK/TX. yesterday was much better...hopefully todays trend wont continue

what a waste of an active troughing pattern. After this I can see things quieting down for a couple weeks and then reactivating by the end of April and into May...but Im no expert...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Really is a shame as this is about as active as they come, but with no moisture to work with at this point we'll be seeing a daily dose of wind and rain showers.

Like Adam said, guessing after a few wastes of systems (aside from maybe a few svr events in the south) we'll likely head back into a lull for a while. Afraid it could be a while before the first really good chaseable tornado event.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yes, its beginning to look like moisture will be the big issue this year, at least for the beginning, in the Central Plains. The fact that two potentially major events so far were nixed by the lack of moisture does not bode well. This is not to say the eastern portions or deeper south will be excluded in April. The latest outlooks support this. Seems right now, the drought maps are redefining "Tornado Alley."

W.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yea the moisture is a problem now, but that was the case in 2004 too. March and April were moisture starved and patience paid off with an awesome May and June even July and August were active on the Plains. I think we will see a slow start with an intense end to the season just like last year. We'll see I guess.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

The long range models seem somewhat consistent in opening up the Gulf next week. Several good/great chase days look possible from the middle of the week into the weekend. It is nice to see 70+ dews all the way into OK, 4000+ CAPE ANYWHERE, and LI of -12 showing up. Obviously way too early to pinpoint a day or location, but.....OK I'LL DO IT..NEXT THURSDAY IN C/E TX LOOKS GREAT! There, I said it, fire away!

Seriously though, it does look like we could finally establish some moisture in the plains which would be a great thing.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Wow, me and my big mouth. I shouldn't have said anything. Although the Gulf opens up a bit, there really doesn't look like there is much in the offering. At least on the 12z and 18z runs. I know the 06z isn't very reliable, but it painted a better picture than the last 3 days of runs that all looked good. Complete 180. Oh well, such is life watching the GFS. Serves me right for even looking beyond 5-6 days.