ENSO Temps and Tornadoes

[Michael Snyder]

*I forgot to add, that this data is for 1985-2014

I just got finished plugging in some initial numbers regarding monthly ENSO temps and average number of tornadoes per month.
Ill update as I organize things a little better.

Top 10 Tornado Average per months according to ENSO temps you ask?

# of ENSO
+FC's Temps

81.5 0.2 El Nada (Neutral)
79.5 -0.2 La Nada (Neutral)
73.4 -0.9 La Nina
60.2 -0.6 La Nina
60.0 0.3 El Nada (Neutral)
55.9 0.7 El Nino
54.1 -1.5 La Nina
53.8 0.4 El Nada (Neutral)
50.5 0.5 El Nino
49.8 -0.3 La Nada (Neutral)

The average tornadoes per month for ENSO temps -0.1 thur -2.1 = 44.75
The Average tornadoes per month for ENSO temps 0.0 = 42.7
The average tornadoes per month for ENSO temps 0.1 thru 2.5 = 41.96

So as you can see there is a slight advantage to negative ENSO conditions.

These numbers are based on ALL months, and I plan on doing a monthly average based on MAR-JUL or something similar. I breaking down the common severe weather months may put things into better perspective.

Hope this makes some sense.

 

[Jeff Duda]

You could also narrow your analysis to great plains area states (TX, OK, KS, NE for example), and look at lagged-correlations between monthly or multi-monthly mean ENSO index values and tornado counts some number of months later (0, 1, ...,6). If there were strong correlations it would give way to some predictability.

 

[Michael Snyder]

You could also narrow your analysis to great plains area states (TX, OK, KS, NE for example), and look at lagged-correlations between monthly or multi-monthly mean ENSO index values and tornado counts some number of months later (0, 1, ...,6). If there were strong correlations it would give way to some predictability.

Absolutely, This will be next on the to-do list.

Im not bad with Excel, but my wife is amazing, so I just have to peel her away from the kids to make this all the more easy, haha.

 

[Michael Snyder]

Also since the numbers are all there, Ill do Violent (EF4,5) Strong (EF2,3) on separate and combined charts. If I ever get it well organized enough I could break it down by individual states. Ill have to see how this goes...

 

[Michael Snyder]

March-August 1985-2014 Top ENSO average months

83 months on the positive ENSO side at 143.9 per month MAR-AUG
86 months on the negative ENSO side at 151.2 per month MAR-AUG

I think it will start to get a bit more interesting as we break it down into the Plain states of KS,OK,CO,NE,TX

Here is the break down of MAR-AUG by ENSO temps, further breakdowns will be individual months.
-0.6 .....238.7
0.2 .....202.5
0.7 .....189.0
-0.1 .....187.1
-0.2 .....183.5
0.9 .....182.0
0.5 .....175.9
-0.7 .....171.0
0.4 .....161.8
-0.8 .....161.5
(the -0.9 month fell from #3 to #12 MAR-AUG vs all year)


Down the road Ill be on to Tornado Ratings vs location vs month, ..... you get the picture...

If you guys get anymore ideas just let me know, or if anyone wants any or all of this data to do your own work , just let me know. I can email it.

 

[Michael Snyder]

Ive decided to do the states: OK,KS,TX, CO, NE.

Im finished with TX, half way through KS, I should start having some results in the next couple week or so. Ill do SIGTOR's and of course have them all lined up with ENSO temps.

Hopefully some pattern emerges...

 

[Michael Snyder]

Ive got the Excel formulas worked out and since everything is in place now Ill be able to run numbers based on PDO, ENSO. Then we can look at delayed responses to both, or anything else I, or anyone else can think of.