Disturbance in the east atlantic.

[Jim Leonard]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Atlantic/latest_lc.jpg
There is a pretty well organized for this early in the season tropical disturbance about 8N and 25W. I noticed it has become much better developed in the last 24 hours. The 200mb winds should be favorable for some further development as long as it stays south of 15N for next few days. This is a positive sign for an active tropical atlantic this season.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Yeah, not a bad looking wave at all. Something to watch..

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I was going to start a new thread... but I see that Jim beat me to it so I will just add it here.

GFS Indicates first Cape Verde Hurricane

The GFS handled well the formation of both Boris and TD3 in the pacific but now attention turns towards the Atlantic!

Around 90H time (based on 00z GFS) an area of low pressure forms from a wave that exists Africa near Sierra Leone. By 120H this low then forms into a tropical system before deepening into a name storm / perhaps hurricane by 168H

What is also interesting is the strength of the Mid Atlantic High which will keep the storm at below 20N before it reaches the Leewood Islands in the Caribbean Sea – here the High is much weaker with a turn North Eastwards seems likely. South East Florida???

I will also add that this also support for this from the CMC as well as the Euro…

 

[Jim Leonard]

This disturbance located this morning near 10N and 35W appears to be a small system which is normal for this early in the season. Tropical storms that do form during this time of the season are usually small and weak. The real Cape Verde storms usually don't come along until after the beginning of August, there are exceptions like hurricane Bertha of 1996 which was early July. That was the earliest Cape Verde hurricane on record. This year, the sea level pressures (SLP) have been running a little below average across the tropical atlantic. These lower pressures should mean a better than usual chance of a early and active Cape Verde season this year. The upper air winds are quite favorable so far to support a tropical cyclone in this region. The monsoon southwesterlies across the eastern atlantic to the African coast in the low levels should setup better in the weeks to come.

 

[Jose Garcia]

Hi Jim and all...

Over the past two or three interesting waves there have been a 200mb ridge forming right on top of them at around 30-40W. I expect as the weeks move by to see those ridges starting to move west with the systems and chances for development should increase dramatically. Seems like this will be our first true Cape Verde season in quite a few years...

Stay tuned

 

[Rob Lightbown]

Infared satellite imagery from the eastern Atlantic and Africa show a rather robust tropical disturbance located over west-central Africa. This tropical disturbance looks like it will emerge into the eastern Atlantic within the next 48 to 60 hours. It looks like all of the 00Z model runs, including the GFS model and the European model, agree that this system will become a tropical cyclone later this week as it tracks westward to west-northwestward across the central and eastern Atlantic. It is very interesting to note that the GFS model has been forecasting this scenario for about a week now and it seems that this may turn out to be true. I will be very interested to see how things transpire later this week in the eastern Atlantic.

 

[Jim Leonard]

Even though several model are showing the development of a tropical cyclone over the eastern tropical atlantic during the next few days, don't expect more than a tropical storm. Usually even in the most active seasons tropical systems don't develop much in this region before August. Although years that have formations in this region before August have a much higher chance of an active and intense atlantic season. These systems this early in the season are usually small weak storms and usually dissipate long before making it to the east coast of the U.S. The only exception is hurricane Bertha of 1996.