CSU 3 Aug. Forecast; forecasts lowered for 2007

[Jeff Snyder]

We have lowered our forecast from our early April and late May predictions due to slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic. ENSO conditions have trended slightly cooler over the past few weeks. We expect either cool neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season.

--> 3 Aug. 2007 CSU Forecast

Here's a brief comparison:
Named Storms: May 31 -- 17, Aug. 3 -- 15
Hurricanes: May 31 -- 8, Aug. 3 -- 7
Intense Hurricanes: May 31 -- 5, Aug. 3 -- 4

I'll wait for their 2 October "forecast"... (not laughing at their forecasts, just laughing at the fact that they issue a seasonal forecast 67% of the way through the season).

 

[Brian Stertz]

Yeah true enough Jeff....looking out on the 12z GFS would say that the hurricane season's start has been delayed some. This would certainly follow through with cutting down the # of hurricanes predicted. I think when one does get cranked up and mean....the media will jump all over the notion of this being an active hurricane season...kind of like what happened after the Greensburg tornado. Armageddon.

 

[cedwards]

I'll wait for their 2 October "forecast"...

I think I'll wait for the November 31, hindcast.

I think the media tend to hype up the numbers. As far as chasing goes, it only takes one good one to hit land to make a good season.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Yeah true enough Jeff....looking out on the 12z GFS would say that the hurricane season's start has been delayed some. This would certainly follow through with cutting down the # of hurricanes predicted. I think when one does get cranked up and mean....the media will jump all over the notion of this being an active hurricane season...kind of like what happened after the Greensburg tornado. Armageddon.

Well the hurricane season usually doesn't get going in ernest until around the 15th or 20th of August. So this season is still on track.

Having said that, I totally agree with CSU chipping down just a bit on the numbers. But I don't think in any way this is a sign of the hurricane season not being very active. The cooling SSTs in the Atlantic they refer to is really only over the Eastern Atlantic. That should keep the Cape Verde season from being active. But what happens when tropical waves reach the Caribbean/Western Atlantic & Gulf and find SSTs of +1C for fuel? That spells a higher than normal landfal potential over the Eastern Gulf & Southeast Coast, in my opinion.

Over the past several days tropical waves have been showing some life, but can't seem to get going. That's probably because the Atlantic Basin is under large scale subsidence left over in wake of the last MJO wave. Give it 'till around the last week in August, and that subsidence will have exited the Atlantic, and at least some large scale rising motion will move in with the next MJO wave.

 

[Jim Leonard]

It really is a joke when I hear the media all day saying how CSU's forecast has been lowered from 17 to 15 named storms like that is a big drop. I have even heard today on the national radio news the sst's are too cold now compared to a few months ago, give me a break... If we see 15 named storms that is still a very active season especially when you have been tracking them for several decades. Back in the old days it was considered active if we saw 12 storms. It wasn't until 1995 when the letter "O" was used which was Opal.

 

[Gene Moore]

If we see 15 named storms that is still a very active season especially when you have been tracking them for several decades. Back in the old days it was considered active if we saw 12 storms. It wasn't until 1995 when the letter "O" was used which was Opal.

Speaking of several decades, have the null years been studied? That is, have the conditions been described that tend to no (or very few) strong hurricanes and few named storms? This would be outside of the known favorable conditions like high SST's (which may or may not lead to hurricanes), or strong NW flow that pushes fronts deep into southern Atlantic.

Gene Moore