Chase Case #9

[Jeff Snyder]

Not a whole lot of time to give a detail explanation, but I'm going to set up on the east side of Kansas City, MO. I don't like the veered flow to the south (in OK and southern KS), and the dewpoint deficits in TX are high (~25F). There appears to be some decent Tds and warm temps in MO, both of which should be contributing to significant CAPE given the lapse rates seen in morning soundings. Surface winds look nice across central/northern MO... Cap may be an issue, but there may be some divergence in the left-exit region of the upper jet that aides the surface parcels with mid-80s temps and 68-71 dewpoints across this area to breach the cap.

So, with nice looking wind profiles, and higher Ts and Tds under cooler 700mb temps (relative to the OK/TX target), I choose to park in the eastern side of Kansas City, MO, with a decent option east, southeast, and south.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Well even before I saw the 18z data I was thinking somewhere along I 35 in Kansas. Now I think Overland park would be my target along the warm front. It appears that the elevated mixed layer was a little to intense further south along the dryline based on the 12 Raobs. High capes, low LCL's and locally enhanced shear due to backed winds along the front make NE Kansas a prime location IMO.

 

[Nick Bender]

I agree with Jeff's analysis of the situation per the 18Z obs. While hesitant to venture far from my initial area, I'm going to jog a bit NE towards the warmfront and reposition myself in Springfield, MO - options to push into NE kansas, continue my northeastward progression, or dart back down to my 12Z starting location incase some initiation starts south of the sfc Low and ahead of the Dryline - which appears to not have moved much since 12Z.

New target as of 18Z - Springfield, MO.

 

[Shane Adams]

Just had my first look. Based on 12Z data I'm heading to Arkansas City, KS.

 

[Shane Adams]

Based on 18Z I'm moving east to Chanute, KS.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Hmm... Northeast KS and northwest MO is looking kind of interesting. A few stations reporting mid 80's with Td's in the low 70's with ESE winds along the warm front. METAR's also indicating partly sunny skies, so further warming might be possible. That area is right in the vacinity of the SFC low with excellent directional shear and probably some good SFC convergence going on. I did hand modify the TOP sounding, and there is a pretty solid CAPE area - but there appears to be a pretty strong CAP in the lower levels... Since that area is also west of the 850-700MB thermal axis, I would suspect that those temps may have cooled somewhat...

Right now, TOP and EAX look pretty good... But I am torn between that and the possible action near LSX over towards PAH... It almost looks like a meso-low with cyclonically curved wind barbs near the PAH area... And the moisture pooling with Td's in the mid 70's and T's near 85F - pretty tempting. In addition LSX/PAH are likely experiencing the strongest mid and upper level winds...

 

[Scott Olson]

Last chance for targets

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Target: Carrollton, MO

Gabe

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'll bite the bullet and say LSX.

 

[David Wolfson]

Waaaal, Seymour is getting swept by the dryline. Not pleased and likely to bust. Pulling stakes and heading up to Wichita Falls, thence ESE on US82 toward Sherman, TX. I haven't given up my theory, and the intensity of the dry punch shows there's something going on upstairs. Maybe I'll get lucky, while everyone else busts up in northern MO :wink: .

 

[Michael P. Morris]

After watching the surface low progress much faster than I expected, I blasted north on 35, then east on 70 all the way up to Leavenworth KS, right up against the WF/triple point.

 

[Karen Politte]

I haven't read any further posts after the 18Z data......I will read up after I've posted my own meager attempt.....

From just a quick cursory glance at the noontime surface data, it's I guess fairly obvious that I need to stay in the moist/warm sector ahead of the ever-advancing dryline/cold front. Anafront convection doesn't sound too palatable to me right now......

I sure want to stay ahead of all those extensively veering surface winds which are destroying our shear profiles. The deeper moisture has been shunted to the east, with a concerningly high Td at Joplin of 70oF. I need that high-CAPE air today, I'm afraid.

In view of all this I have saddled up Econochase, checked my cellphone is charged and left my breakfast spot around lunch time......I will begin by driving east on I-40 following the warm and moist air and avoiding the veering wind profiles like the plague......

Eventually I make my mind up and reach the Muskogee Turnpike.....and head north with my sights set on something firing hopefully in the great road network area of SE KS or SW MO.

I am targeting Joplin....

Hope I didn't blow it....

KR

 

[Kurt Hulst]

Lexington MO on the NE of KC city

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'll say Bethany MO, because it's where I always end up after a bust, somehow. Linear or clear sky.

 

[Scott Olson]

At 4pm the cap begins giving way in NW Missouri.
Some severe storms with dime size hail begin forming just to the north and northeast of Kansas City, MO:

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Michael P. Morris is the first on the cell, quickly crossing the river. Next, Jeff Snyder quickly traverses I-35 arriving just minutes after Michael.
Kurt Hulst takes highway 13 and arrives ten minutes after Jeff. Dick McGowan arrives right behind Kurt. Jason Mckittrick arrives thrity minutes later having sat in Kansas City traffic for a while.

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About 30 minutes after the chaser convergence in NW MO. Some new cells form south west of St. Louis, Missouri. The cells which intially appear weak begin interacting with a boundary.
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As the complex approaches St. Louis a storm near Harvester, MO begins to intensify and a wall cloud develops. Nearby Rob Dewey races towards an open field and sets up his tripod. Just as he finishes an F1 tornado descends to the ground.
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As the sun starts to set, massive Cu development can be seen near Dodge City. A storm quickly fires and is SVR warned.

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The storm goes through Dodge City destroying windows and windshields and damaging roofs across the city. Six million dollars in damage is reported from the 2.50" inch hail. As the storm moves on. it drops 3.00" hail to the SE. David Wolfson in Seymour, TX leaves as soon as he see\'s the development but the sun has already set by the time he reaches the cell so he settles for some lightning pictures of an elevated supercell.

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Chasers Glen Romine, Mike Hollingshead and Joe Taylor save their money for the next day where many tornadoes occur.

The cap holds in OK/TX.

The date of this chase is 5-23-98

-Scott Olson.