Chase Case #10

Scott Olson

Scott Olson

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This day may or may have not had tornadoes or severe weather

18z data will be avaliable at 5p.m. and the chase will occur tonight. Please don't guess the date until everyone has had a chance to adjust their targets with the 18z data.

NOTE: Make sure to adjust your anaylsis as previous charts were an anaylsis from the RUC but not actual plotted sounding data.

Enjoy!







KABR- http://img308.imageshack.us/img308/6549/75pz.gif
KRAP- http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/1522/84rm.gif
KDNR- http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/306/104qd.gif
KLBF- http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/548/112gk.gif
KGRB- http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/584/120ms.gif
KDVN- http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/4253/139xv.gif
KOAX- http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/6081/148da.gif
KTOP- http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/6426/152cm.gif
KDDC- http://img307.imageshack.us/img307/1958/160na.gif
KILX- http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/4816/175mg.gif
KBIS- http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/2511/185sl.gif
 
the two surface obs you gave are not matching. IL has temps in the 80's and the other one says 60's for example, and they are supposed to be 12z time frame right? Am i missing somthing here
 
[I'm assuming the bottom SA is the right one for 12Z because it covers where I'd want to be anyway.]

Holy moley! 66 dew in Lamar, 68 in Goodland!?? The DDC and LBF soundings are outta sight! Hmm. I think I'll target Peoria, IL.... :)

Noooo.... I think I'll go to North Platte, NE, where the upper environment is a little better, and be prepared to go north, east, south, or west.
 
hmmm ... zonal pattern ... looks like two possibilities in my mind are in western Nebraska or in southwest Wisconsin at the time being. For now I think I'll pick Wisconsin for some dairy country chasing.

EDIT - good grief ... does that OAX sounding show L.I. at -18? ... Something looks like it's about to explode ... I definitely need to re-think this ... wish I had more time to devote to it. The Missouri River valley just looks primed for something now to me, so I'm going to call Sioux City, Iowa as my first official target.
 
good grief ... does that OAX sounding show L.I. at -18? ...
Click to expand...

Nope, -1.8C :lol:
Click to expand...

LOL - thanks for bringing me back to reality. I still like the wind there, so until that target gets officially rejected as a possibility I guess I'll just stay with it .... goodnight Olson, props on picking the tough forecast days.
 
I'm heading to York, Nebraska for this one based on the 12Z data. Realistically, I would probably never drive this far for a chase (especially such a tough forecast with the zonal flow at UL). The LBF sounding shows a pretty stout cap but the best shear environment is located slightly downstream at Omaha and LL warm advection should help to weaken that cap slightly. The thunderstorms currently rolling into western Iowa look like they may have put down an OFB as well.

Good case, Scott!
 
Well, wind profiles really look good on most of the soundings, and good SFC moisture seems to be the standard across most of the area... A SFC low exists across southwestern NE with a decent dryline extending southward from that point. A weak warm front also appears to be situated from the SFC low eastward into MI...

But... I REALLY don't like the weak lapse rates seen on almost all of the soundings, and the massive mid level thermal ridge spreading into the region. That to me would spell trouble for any widespread convection... Also, there doesn't really appear to be any significant upper level support. The main shortwave is way over in the northwestern portion of the US, and we are left to rely only on a weak warm front and decent dryline to overcome a very strong CAP.

Right now, I will call the area around DVN "home" since it's farthest away from the low to mid level thermal axis, and there is a nice little dip in the 500MB temps. Also, I would expect the decent shear found that is located a bit further west to advect into the region later in the day.

Overall though, I'm VERY close to calling this a bust day.
 
Doesn't look like the soundings are for the same day as the charts above. Compare the raw values at the height levels, and they don't seem to match. Please recheck the sounding dates that you collected Scott.

Glen
 
Doesn't look like the soundings are for the same day as the charts above. Compare the raw values at the height levels, and they don't seem to match. Please recheck the sounding dates that you collected Scott.

Glen
Click to expand...

Nope, they are the same. All matched up re-checked with date, im doing some comparsion with other charts to to try and identify similarities differences.
 
Doesn't look like the soundings are for the same day as the charts above. Compare the raw values at the height levels, and they don't seem to match. Please recheck the sounding dates that you collected Scott.

Glen
Click to expand...

Nope, they are the same.
Click to expand...

I think I see what Glen's saying... For example, according to the RAOBs, the hieghts at LBF at 300mb, 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb are 9590m, 5840m, 3093m, and 1420m. On the upper-air charts, however, these heights (respectively) are given as 9590m, 5800m, 3080m, and 1450m. In addition, the 300mb temp at LBF is given on the RAOB to be about -36/-37, while the 300mb chart yields -34.
 
I see a broad area of interest from western KS to north central NE. It appears the moisture has mixed deep and pooled in the north and remains pretty shallow in KS. It would also appear that western KS and most of western NE might be capped. Even with these negatives there may still be enough juice to get things rolling on the high plains. But, I also think things could be primed for a good north central NE s-se mover. So this morning I’ll head out to Valentine and check data there. I’ll still have a chance to shoot sw if things start looking better under the cap. Will have to grab a breakfast burrito to go, as we have many miles to travel!
 
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