Chase Case #10

[Karen Politte]

Just as in real life ... I stayed home when I probably could have intercepted if I would have just gone with the initial instincts. These chase cases are getting a little TOO close to reality now ... lol.

Thanks for putting it together, Scott ... this was a fun one! (and the way you do the results is terrific ... must be a lot of work, but we enjoyed it a lot) ...

I agree - the way we are doing these (i.e. putting some real-life nuances in there too) is trending towards making it a very "real" experience. I love it.

Well done to Scott, too - and thanks for putting so much time into not only providing the dates/data, but also constructing colorful conclusions to it all in the end!

KR

 

[Glen Romine]

The Day is July 2nd, 1999

Seems I just can't settle on any of the images for this case, lol. Sorry Scott, but when I look at the storm reports for July 2, 1999 from SPC, here is what I see:

No tornadoes were reported in IA based on that image. Were there some later confirmed tornadoes not in the inital report? Certainly there were many storms based on the number of large hail/high wind reports there. The other events near GLD and LBF look to match up.

Glen

 

[Mike Peregrine]

No tornadoes were reported in IA based on that image. Were there some later confirmed tornadoes not in the inital report? Certainly there were many storms based on the number of large hail/high wind reports there. Is there perhaps a problem with the date given for the event?
Glen

Wow ... this just gets more and more interesting ... now on top of the mystery behind unraveling the event, you just gotta love a good chase case scandal. Think it's time to contact a few tabloids ...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Glen, check the NCDC Events Database:

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dl...howEvent~361952

 

[Scott Olson]

That graphic you posted only displays reports before 0z I allow everything up to about 12 am. I verify the storm reports from three different sources:

STORM DATA:

Hamlin 07/02/1999 01:10 PM Tornado F1 0 0 2K 1K

Aplington 07/02/1999 08:45 PM Tornado F2 0 0 25K 1K

Stout 07/02/1999 08:54 PM Tornado F2 0 0 75K 3K

And I also use SeverePlot because I find sometimes you get some minor ambiguity between the three.

 

[Glen Romine]

That graphic you posted only displays reports before 0z I allow everything up to about 12 am. I verify the storm reports from three different sources:

I don't think that is correct, SPC storm reports cover 24 hrs from 12 UTC, or 7am CDT 02 July to 7 am 03 July for the date above. As I noted, preliminary reports can be incomplete, so I guess this was the case as surveys later found enough evidence to classify the preliminary wind damage events as tornadoes. Just wanted to make sure everything checked out. Thanks everyone for piping in.

Glen

 

[Scott Olson]

That graphic you posted only displays reports before 0z I allow everything up to about 12 am. I verify the storm reports from three different sources:

I don't think that is correct, SPC storm reports cover 24 hrs from 12 UTC, or 7am CDT 02 July to 7 am 03 July for the date above. As I noted, preliminary reports can be incomplete, so I guess this was the case as surveys later found enough evidence to classify the preliminary wind damage events as tornadoes. Just wanted to make sure everything checked out. Thanks everyone for piping in.

Glen

Yeah they do but the graphic you posted wasn't what I have so I figured perhaps it had a different methodology then. I was responding to your orignal message that you thought it may be the wrong date. Didn't understand why you couldn't have checked storm data before saying that though I see you have since changed your message so thats okay. You can always PM me with any questions or concerns too! Im glad you caught those bad RAP plots early on.

Next chase will be this Sunday... The RUC, GFS and NAM will also be joining the case!


Thanks!
Scott Olson.