Chase Case #10

Yeah - actually it looks like the contours on the plots might be ok - but the 'data' overlayed on the plots is totally different from the soundings and from the contours. Maybe there is an error in the plotting program that generated the maps, but either way something is seriously wrong and makes it really tough to use the images provided since you aren't sure what to believe. I hate to suggest it - but you may want to either replace the pressure surface maps with some from a different source, or pick a different case with clean maps.

Glen
 
Okay, it looks like the charts are bad (soundings are good) New charts in twenty minutes. :)

I compared some features with a different set of charts and it looks good. Though if you guys find a lot of problems with the new ones let me know and we will start over.

-Scott.
 
Okay, it looks like the charts are bad (soundings are good) New charts in twenty minutes. :)
Click to expand...

great ... if you cause me to miss a tornado I'm going to charge you for gas ...

hehe ... no rush ... I have a feeling the new charts won't make a tremendous impact in the difficulty.
 
These new charts look much better, so now that everything is squared away and we have verified our data let's get some targets.

Mike if you need some gas just send your receipt and a letter requesting reimbursement to:

Attn: Executive Officer Rex Tillerson
Exxon-Mobil
5959 Las Colinas Blvd. Irving, TX



LOL,
Scott.
 
Well Scott, this one appears even tougher than the last one when verifying a Bust/No Bust day.

Current analysis of the situation has already done, so I'll skip that. Wide range of interest from central KS, up through NE, IA, and MO. I'm worried about the lack of forcing, with mentioned primary short wave being well out of targeted zone - as well as the numerous amount of soundings with poor lapse rate near moist adiabatic.

Being unable to ignore the DDC sounding for fear of isolated convection, I'm going to leave myself with good options to push in numerous directions - with a bias towards to the North/Northeast.

Target as of 12Z: St. Joseph, MO - with good options to dart into central KS should initiation commence, as well as options to head up I-29 or I-35 into SE Nebraska or Southern Iowa.
 
Target as of 12Z: St. Joseph, MO - with good options to dart into central KS should initiation commence, as well as options to head up I-29 or I-35 into SE Nebraska or Southern Iowa.
Click to expand...

I'm glad you saw this ... I had a question in my mind about STJ after looking at that last map ... forcing is definitely the big question - hard to pinpoint where the kinks in the system will come from when the air is sailing smoothly along in a zonal regime. My biggest concern down in Missouri was the capping, though ... so it's hard to know what to do ... plus I still like the wind further north ... ugh ... this one has me as indecisive as I usually am in an actual chase day scenario.
 
Definitly agree with you Mike on the indecisiveness with this 12Z data. I don't really see anything happening in MO at this time, but wanted to keep some southern positioning just in case some isolated supercells spawn in KS.

Kansas City, MO seemed too far south putting me behind on the northern game. I'm leaning towards a Northern push at the current time, but who knows what the 18Z data will hold :D .
 
Now the upper charts are right, but I lost the surface chart. Darn computer.... Ah, well based on the new 12Z charts, from what I recall of the SA I want to be northeast of where I am. Adjusted target is Oneill, NE.
 
W/o surface maps, I'll make my target area a little broad (which is legal since we're pre-noon and have time to reposition or refine the target). I'm going to head towards Grand Island, NE. Steep lapse rates and deep moisture signify strong/extreme instability likely by afternoon. The cap does appear to be an issue, but we'll see what the 18z data shows. Can't stand the weak mid-upper level flow south of I70.

EDIT: With the surface map, I'm going to stay in Grand Island for now, as it'll give me a good east option if I need to get to the clearer skies in IA, or a west option if I need to head that way.
 
Well now that I see the new surface map I'm leaning back toward bustage on this one ... all that cloud cover is bad news on a big cap day ... we need plenty o' sun to break that nasty lid. ... although my initial target of Sioux City is still bathed in sunlight ....

hmmm ... indecisive, party of one please. I refuse to give it any more thought until the next data runs come out and then I'll make a mad dash out the door in St. Joe to wherever I'm headed.
 
Jeesh ... if I were a gambling man I guess now I'd go to Republic County, Kansas near Concordia (though I'd like to see some soundings before I leave) ... since I'm NOT a gambling man, I'm going to stay behind my computer in Missouri and watch everyone else bag one this time ... as of 18z I'm staying home.
 
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