Chase Case #10

[Karen Politte]

Alright then........if I had to do a quickie I'd say I'm sitting in Chadron NE waiting to see what happens. I'm comfortable, just south of the Black Hills in case of a bust and I have to go sightseeing, and I love the NE Panhandle area with a storm - just spectacular! Those rolling green desolate hills and starry nights......

But that's a 2.5-minute forecast for ya.......

KR

 

[Scott Olson]

I'm heading up to Chamberlain SD and likely be following some monster supercell south in the evening.

oh no ... it's too late now ... any supercell in SD has been ongoing now for four hours as Scott takes a bath ... hehe

sorry ... just giving everyone a hard time because I don't have a life ...

LMAO.. Yeah it's what you call priority nowcasting.

 

[brody_clifton]

After looking at the 18Z surface data, I decided to drive north on 83 from North Platte to Valentine and then book east on 20 to O'Neill. 190 miles to cover, I'm hoping I can make it far enough east on 20 to be in position for initiation, which I feel could occur between Bassett and O'Neill. Still rolling the dice on the cap breaking before dark, if it breaks at all.

 

[Scott Olson]

Michael P. Morris while grabbing a bite to eat in Omaha is the first to hear the news. A tornado has been spotted near Hamlin (F0). He quickly gets on I- 80 the tornado though had long since been gone.

This was the storm while the tornado was reported on the ground:
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Michael does finally arrive on the storm. The storm is a monster with a nice wall cloud. Michael notices what appears to be softball\'s covering the upcoming road. But those are no softballs those are 4.50" hail. After following the cell for a little while he heads home. Later, he finds out the cell had VILD\'s approaching 90 kg/m2!!!

THE PACMAN HAILSTORM AS SAMPLED AT 30,000FT
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Meanwhile near Goodland, KS the cap begins to give way in yet another extremely unstable environment. At around 6:00pm cells start forming/moving into SouthWest Nebraska and NorthWest Kansas.

Joel Wright see\'s the distant towers and speeds off to intercept.
A storm north of Goodland puts down a tornado at 6:50 (f0) and then another tornado at 7:10 near Bird City. Unfortunately Joel arrives twenty minutes after the last tornado lifts. A nice wall cloud and beautiful mammatus persist for some time.

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At 6:20 pm James McCormick who is in North Platte leaves to get in on the action. Several severe cells are now in SW Nebraska heading Northeast. At 6:47 a tornado is reported over the radio near Grant, NE. He continues accelerating and at 7:00 o\'clock through the haze he spots the tornado. Not having time to setup the tripod he jumps out the car and takes a couple pictures of the tornado as it lifts a pickup truck and smashes it against the ground. The tornado lifts 5 minutes later.


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James follows the cell further and at 8:35 catches another Brief tornado near Arnold, NE...


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Meanwhile, supercell thunderstorms have continued to pound the state of Iowa with large hail. One such storm begins showing mesocyclone development. Rob Dewey, in Davenport heads out knowing that he will probably not reach the cell in time. At 8:42 the storm puts down an F2 tornado near Applington, IA. The tornado then lifts at 8:54 and is quickly back for another 13 minutes. Unfortunately Rob Dewey is unable to intercept the cell in time but arrives at 9:45 and takes some lightning shots of the supercell.

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Jeff Snyder witnesses lightning from a MCS during the evening.

The Day is July 2nd, 1999

James McCormick is the winner 58miles from target to F1/ 38 to F0
(since the second tornado was within North Platte accepted radius and there was enough time between the too he got both.)

Michael P. Morris- 70 miles to Tornado/20 more miles to sig severe.

Joel Wright- 78 miles from McCook, NE to tornadoes.


Thanks to all for playing!
Scott Olson.

 

[David Wolfson]

Great case, Scott -- thanks! [...slaps self for second-guessing the target and relocating without a really good reason. Patience, patience, patience....]

 

[Nick Bender]

Great case Scott, and as always I enjoy how you post the results!

 

[Shane Adams]

12Z data takes me to Concordia, KS.

 

[Shane Adams]

18Z data takes me to Shenandoah, IA

 

[Scott Olson]

18Z data takes me to Shenandoah, IA

Hey Shane, I posted the solution up above if you want to take a look at it.
Not a bad target, you were about 76miles from an F0 and about 90 from a monster supercell that produced 4.50" hail..

Scott.

 

[Shane Adams]

disregard

 

[James McCormick]

Great case. That much moisture with low level shear at 3000-3500 feet elevation is too hard for me to pass up.
I will put together a case by tomorrow. If somebody beats me to the punch go ahead!

 

[Scott Olson]

Great case. That much moisture with low level shear at 3000-3500 feet elevation is too hard for me to pass up.
I will put together a case by tomorrow. If somebody beats me to the punch go ahead!

Thanks and good job! Look forward to your chase case.

Check out some of these figures from the 0z soundings:

KDDC-- CAPE (B+): 5093.73 J/kg
KOAX- CAPE (B+): 4289.27 J/kg

 

[Nick Bender]

Figured the soundings in KS would only get better as the day went on given the setup - only wish I would have punched further west than Emporia, KS.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Scott, don't you know I chase in a helicopter? :lol:

Man, if only I was a little bit further west I could have caught that F2...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Just as in real life ... I stayed home when I probably could have intercepted if I would have just gone with the initial instincts. These chase cases are getting a little TOO close to reality now ... lol.

Thanks for putting it together, Scott ... this was a fun one! (and the way you do the results is terrific ... must be a lot of work, but we enjoyed it a lot) ...