Chase Case #10

[Jeff Snyder]

The main problem I see w/ NE is the cloudcover and the lack of any obvious source for surface convergence, except for far sw NE. The deep moisture in KS has allowed the Tds to stay up despite the winds veering to the SW. To the east, in IA, clouds aren't as much of an issue, but temps aren't as high either, which is a concern given the cap. MO looks interesting given the 75-78F dewpoints, which, with temps in the upper-80s and near 90, should make for a breakable cap. The S or SE sfc winds in northern MO and IA are appealing, but again, I don't see a good source for surface convergence. Perhaps a psuedo warm front in NE and IA where winds turn from S to SE, but that's tough. I guess I'll have to target farther west into sw NE where there appears to be a chance of good surface convergence to focus initiation. I'm heading west towards Lexington, NE. The T/TD profiles in KS look appealing, but those mid-upper level winds aren't making me optimistic about sustained supercells.

Target: Lexington, NE

 

[David Wolfson]

I'll stick around in O'Neill, NE, for want of a better idea. Getting some breaks in the clouds and shooting for about 84/72 in mid-afternoon -- a good depression range. The cap is trouble, but not like further southwest. Could be one of those EBS days -- Everything But Storms.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well...

I think I'm going to stay in the DVN area. Latest 18Z SFC data shows temperatures climbing up towards 80F with Td's in the upper 60's in northeast IA/southwest WI. That area is also near a weak warm front, and has the best upper level support via a jet max. In addition, modifying the 12Z soundings for GRB and ARX shows some decent instability...

From DVN, I could also drop south if need be into southeastern IA where SFC winds are backed and SFC parcels are upper 80's / mid 70's T/Td's. Whatever the case, I am staying as far away from that thermo CAP over the SW as possible...

This would definitely be a chase day for the desperate and wealthy given the strong signal for a bust.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Even though I may end up getting bitten by lack of insolation, I am banking on what looks like a weak outflow boundary progressing into eastern Nebraska. The OAX sounding from this morning looks like we are only going to need about 85-87 F to break the cap, so I am going to (uncharacteristically) stay put and hope for the best.

 

[James McCormick]

70+ degree dew points in western Nebraska and east winds? Yikes! I am heading south of North Platte on Highway 83 to start with. The town of Maywood looks very nice.

 

[Nick Bender]

Still not certain on a Bust/ No Bust, but the 18Z data sure doesn't shed that much light on the matter - except in KS where the cloud cover has burned off .

Cloud covered has been burned off over much of KS as of the 18Z obs, clouds holding steady over much of central and eastern NE - not much change from the 12Z obs, clouds holding over MO and clouds now moving into the western and southern portions of IA. As those who have said it before me, not good when we had those caps to break.

Although the wind profile may not be as favorable in my new target area when compared to say portions of NE and IA, I'm gonna gamble a little bit. Based off of the earlier 12Z sounding at DDC, and the fact that KS has cleared their cloud cover out west to east, I'm going to move west from St. Joseph, MO to Emporia, KS.

New target as of 18Z: Emporia, KS.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Well instead of getting that burrito to go I stopped and went in side, so now I find myself in Ainsworth, short of my initial target of Valentine. After checking the 18z data, I think I need to back track to O’Neil and wait for initiation. I still have a good south option if I need to get south to the I-80 corridor.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

So ... I'm wondering at this point if maybe nothing happened on this day, which is why Scott hasn't posted the results yet? - lol - I've been back a couple times this evening to see how this chase day finally ended, but since according to his original post we are now well into the hours that the chase has been on but we've heard nothing new might be an indicator of how this day actually went ...

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Last night the results didn't go up till ~11 pm central. Cut him some slack, there's football to be watched!

 

[Robert Dewey]

If it was a bust, this is how it would really be. We'd all be sitting here "waiting for results"... :lol:

 

[Scott Olson]

Im not a big football fan but I do enjoy a long bath and a good book on meteorology or Woody Guthrie. Solution is on it's way!

Thanks to everyone who participated!!

 

[Karen Politte]

I missed this thread today - so I'll have to catch the next one.

Guess I'll just say that I got stuck in OUN today as Econochase was having some overheating problems!

KR

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm heading up to Chamberlain SD and likely be following some monster supercell south in the evening.

 

[Scott Olson]

I missed this thread today - so I'll have to catch the next one.

Guess I'll just say that I got stuck in OUN today as Econochase was having some overheating problems!

KR

Go ahead and take a shot It takes me a while to get the solution together .

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm heading up to Chamberlain SD and likely be following some monster supercell south in the evening.

oh no ... it's too late now ... any supercell in SD has been ongoing now for four hours as Scott takes a bath ... hehe

sorry ... just giving everyone a hard time because I don't have a life ...