Shane Adams
If we're guessing dates then that's cool, I can do that. But if we're having a forecast contest, naming events (even if you're wrong) defeats the purpose.
If we're guessing dates then that's cool, I can do that. But if we're having a forecast contest, naming events (even if you're wrong) defeats the purpose.
I think that warm front is going to start moving north just a tad, and even though I hate Missouri chasing and it looks socked-in for the time being, I'm still going to drive across highway 36 and hit Monroe City, where I will follow a tornado between there and Hannibal and likely be forced to cross the river and head into Illinois before this is done. And this time, unlike last time, I'm going to stick with it instead of giving up just before the tornado.
Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
So who's stopping you from issuing your forecast?
The whole premise of this contest revolves around real, past events. That right there should be the indicator that no one should be throwing out dates. We all know it's some past event, so why make it any easier by throwing out dates? I mean, doesn't this just scream obvious?
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
What screams obvious more to me is how this has been played in the past and how easy it is for you to just read the data and not read the others till you want to. If you don't want to be spoiled with the answer why on Earth would you want to read other's forecasting thoughts? Is it THAT hard to just look at the data being posted, make a forecast/target, and then post it and read? Why crab on those figuring out a date they think it is, when that is much harder to do anyway, and when you can do what you want regardless of what they post....with minimal effort?
And to answer your question - yeah, it is hard for me because none of the products posted are what I use. I'm not some badass forecaster like you all, I can't look at a map and find every subtle feature. I have a very distinct and deliberate pattern to data analysis, which includes using only certain graphics and products. I guess I'm like a monkey that responds to colors and patterns, not really a person who knows and understands what they are looking at from a meteorological standpoint.