Shane Adams
If we're guessing dates then that's cool, I can do that. But if we're having a forecast contest, naming events (even if you're wrong) defeats the purpose.
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CHASE CASE (#3): Should I cross the river?
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
nickgrillo
EF5
18z update...
<img src=http://midwestchase.com/chasecase/051229092459u.gif>
This surface plot shows the surface low now northeast of ICT with a cold front arching back into Colorado, and a synoptic warm front stretching from the low into Michigan (and a dryline extending southward from the low into TX).Mike Peregrine
EF5
So who's stopping you from issuing your forecast?
Kurt Silvey
EF4
Well I don’t know which day it is, but with the clearing in west central IL and the slight se surface winds, I’ll have to target somewhere west of Springfield. Lets say Jacksonville, IL
Dan Cook
EF5
This is May 10, 2003.
nickgrillo
EF5
Okay, well... Time for the outcome, I guess!!!!!!!!!!! :roll: Yeah, it's May 10, 2003...
<img src=http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/030510_rpts.gif>
The 18z update would make it pretty obvious that eastcentral / northeast Missouri into central Illinois would be the best target area... Given the enhanced backing surface flow along / south of the warm front.
Jarrod Cook
EF2
I chased this tornado. It's the one in my avatar! We chased it from Monroe City (where it literally formed on top of us) to the river where it died. Was my first tornado! The shot in the avatar is where it was an F-3Shane Adams
I am.
The whole premise of this contest revolves around real, past events. That right there should be the indicator that no one should be throwing out dates. We all know it's some past event, so why make it any easier by throwing out dates? I mean, doesn't this just scream obvious?
But hey, this isn't worth debating, so live and let live.
Gabe Garfield
EF5
I agree with Mike; it is possible to make a forecast and actually know what day you're looking at. However, I also agree with Shane that this knowledge would taint one's ability to come up with an unbiased forecast. Whenever I look at old upper air obs for days when there were tornadoes, I always pay much closer attention to features that were in the vicinity of the chase hotspot for the day. It's really impossible not to take into account what actually happened when trying to make a forecast if you already know what happened on a given day.
GabeMike Hollingshead
Ah ok, I get this game now. It is the play only if you can't figure out the answer-game. It must be easier to figure out the day than it is to say a front is here, moisture is here, shear is here and name a target.
What screams obvious more to me is how this has been played in the past and how easy it is for you to just read the data and not read the others till you want to. If you don't want to be spoiled with the answer why on Earth would you want to read other's forecasting thoughts? Is it THAT hard to just look at the data being posted, make a forecast/target, and then post it and read? Why crab on those figuring out a date they think it is, when that is much harder to do anyway, and when you can do what you want regardless of what they post....with minimal effort?
Scott Olson
EF5
Just a game of course. The person who creates the game should be the one who decides what the rules are, since they went through the effort of getting all the data it only seems right and respectful. Of course neither Kurt nor Nick
stated that you couldn't name the event. It's probably best if the author states what they would like.
We're all friends here!
Scott.Shane Adams
I don't like solving problems anyway. If I already know the solution, then what's the point? And to answer your question - yeah, it is hard for me because none of the products posted are what I use. I'm not some badass forecaster like you all, I can't look at a map and find every subtle feature. I have a very distinct and deliberate pattern to data analysis, which includes using only certain graphics and products. I guess I'm like a monkey that responds to colors and patterns, not really a person who knows and understands what they are looking at from a meteorological standpoint.
If the person who setup the chase events used my exact data pattern for their examples, I could probably hang. But this is way off the point; seems silly to bother with the work when the problem has already been solved. However as I said before, this is hardly worth debating, so live and let live.Mike Hollingshead
Well my question had nothing to do with being good or even what was being used. It was about looking at whatever was given and going off that and not glancing at the other posts...which was the 'problem'.
I just hate some things that get complained about on here when they are just as easily avoided. People'd rather complain on here about stuff than go another way about it first. And my bothering to post about it is likely seen as the same thing lol.
Some would rather guess the date than state the various forecast stuff over and over while others just want to mention all the forecast stuff(some want to do both). Everyone could have their way easily enough if those not wanting to see ANY hints just read the data and post what they want....that easy imo.Shane Adams
I was simply replying to your question. Otherwise I have nothing really to say about it.David Wolfson
EF5
Much of the fun of these cases is seeing how others approach the same problem given a less-than-optimum data set.Similar threads
