Chase Case #2

[Chad Cowan]

It's mid-spring and there is a powerful system moving across the Rockies... there will be tornadoes and picturesque supercells today, but where? I will provide three updates (12z [this update], 18z, and 00z) and then reveal the final storm reports with pictures. Good luck!

EDIT: Once you pick your target I will put it on this map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/export/54011 or you can do it yourself if you sign up for a wayfaring account. TO BE POSTED ON THE MAP YOU HAVE TO PICK A CITY.

12z 500mb geopotential height: (CLICK THUMBNAILS TO ENLARGE!)


12z 500mb:


12z 700mb:


12z 850mb:


12z sfc obs and features:


12z IR Satellite:


12z Radar:


12z CAPE and CIN:




Regional surface views:

12z Temps: Midwest , Southern Plains

12z Dew points: Midwest , Southern Plains

12z Precipitable Water: Midwest , Southern Plains

12z Surface winds: Midwest , Southern Plains


12z Soundings: (in alphabetical order)

Amarillo, TX
Dallas, TX
Davenport, IA
Dodge City, KS
Midland, TX
North Platte, NE
Oklahoma City, OK
Omaha, NE
Topeka, KS

 

[Sam Kennedy]

Okay I don't really know that much about forecasting, but the low and upper level jets are over South Dakota, and there is also Directional and speed shear there, so I would try and Position myself in Eastern SD, but something is telling me everything is going to pop further south, so I may edit this if I decide on a better target.

[EDIT] Even though the Texas/Oklahoma area looks promising, there is no speed shear, and too much directional shear, so I wouldn't want to be there, I will stick with SD and look like an idiot instead lol

 

[Sam Stone]

I'm thinking west central Kansas, possibly a little farther South.

Edit: I'm thinking more south and east now, more south central Kansas area.

Sam

 

[Danny Neal]

I think I would sit on I 35 at the KS/OK border. Seems like a triple point setting up in NE CO. Since it is on 12Z I have plenty of time to re-adjust to W KS or SW OK if I felt conditions warranted.

Wellington, Kansas - for now maybe casually drift west on US 160. Probably end up in Attica, Kansas

EDIT: After taking a quick look this morning when I woke up, for some unknown reason I am infatuated with the Triple Point and warm front. So I took a 4 hour drive up to Ness City, KS so I can position myself at the best of both worlds.

12Z - 16Z on the road to Ness City.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I think I might play south of the triple point along the dryline in western KS. Already some CAPE in OK but there is a hell of a cap and weak shear. I'm gonna hope we get a little moisture advection in points north and the boundaries don't shift too much during the day so I'm out of position. Near Dodge City for now I'd say.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Thanks for tackling this, Chad. It's a great way to spend the winter days.

I think I'm going to set up shop for the time being at westbound rest area M329, 35 miles west of Topeka. Surface winds are backed and I think they'll continue to stay that way in this area as the system moves east, bringing with it strengthening upper-level winds. I've got a moisture tongue advecting from the south, and the triple point between the dryline and the stationary front at the NE border is in the neighborhood and heading my way. CAPE should build with insolation and increasing moisture.

Edit: Just noticed that I need to pick an actual city in order to get shown on the map. Put me at McFarland, KS. But I'm really at the I-70 rest stop, ready to head west (and/or N/S) if and when I need to.

 

[Brett Roberts]

With the 500 mb trough axis all the way back in CA/NV, I'm thinking west of I-35 for sure. I think I'll start out in Medicine Lodge, hedging my bets between the triple-point in NW KS (with the most backed surface winds) and the dryline in W OK (where good low-level moisture already resides).

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I think I'll be sitting at Oberlin, KS. I don't like the lower dew points further north... but further south I don't like the winds. I might jump further south if I am a bone head, but I for now I think this is where I'd be sitting. The only thing is I don't remember much wifi in the town, that get's a bit annoying when you don't use an aircard.

 

[John Gnuechtel]

I would probably start near Salina, Kansas, and then make adjustments north or south in hopes of playing the triple point as it translates east.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I will start in Great Bend, KS and be ready to move north or south depending on what I see in the 18Z data.

 

[Scott Taylor]

Good stuff Chad... let's see, based on those current obs, without seeing any forecast maps beyond 12z, I'd plan on getting to Wichita, KS first as a starting point (not necessarily a target yet), wait for more data and go from there.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'd start by heading west towards Salina since the system is still out west and the triple point will likely move east. I will wait for the 18z data before heading south or north.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I would head to Coldwater, KS. CAPE is whats keeping me to a more southern target right now. Decent road options in the area for me to make adjustments and Im not too far off from the dryline.

I think once I have to adjust I will be heading east.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'll be starting out at Clinton Oklahoma.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I'm going to start in Northern Kansas. Probably Hill City area. I'll be playing the dry line and keeping an eye out for any boundaries to latch onto. I'm not too great when it comes to choosing a start location from 1 set of data. I'm really going to appreciate a second data set later on so I see how things progress!