Andrea Griffa
EF5
Outrageus surface maps that one at 20Z! It reminds me Quinter Outbreak of this year. If the cell in DDC weakens, I'll be heading north toward Gove-Quinter area.
Nathan Edwards
EF2
Well, things look real nice for you guys up on NW Kansas right now. I'm content down in Lubbock still. CU field is looking quite agitated WSW of me at the NM border. Any storms forming in this are should move toward or slightly north of Lubbock into the Plainview area I'd imagine. I can see myself possibly moving north, once initiation happens, but given the strong cap, it may be an hour or two away yet (if at all!). Assuming this is at least late may, looking at the shadows in vis imagery, I have 4 or 5 hours of daylight/twilight left.
I'm not that confident about tornado chances down here. Hopefully, we'll get some nice structure with an outside chance of a spinup or two. Hopefully, I can stay parked wherever I am and watch a nice superell pass within a mile or two of me so that I can complete an entire chase without driving anywhere
With 4-5000 cape a possibility in this area, I may just find myself driving somewhere to avoid large hail more than anything else.
I'm not that confident about tornado chances down here. Hopefully, we'll get some nice structure with an outside chance of a spinup or two. Hopefully, I can stay parked wherever I am and watch a nice superell pass within a mile or two of me so that I can complete an entire chase without driving anywhere
With 4-5000 cape a possibility in this area, I may just find myself driving somewhere to avoid large hail more than anything else.
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
I can see the cell in SW KS and could make it, but I'm not gonna hop on the first storm and hold here for more development further South-West of that Cell, I'll slowly drift North to put myself in front of any development...
Brian Stertz
EF5
Looks like initiation has a cell popping near DDC so think it is time to move up that way and get on it. Cap should keep it somewhat restrained to allow for me to head up on it and chase. Certainly like the sfc inflow in that and decent T-Td spreads.
Marc Austin
EF4
20z: I'm quite happy the southern cap is weakening. Looks like the cell near Thomas, OK is sfc-based and getting well-organized. I have been known in rl on occasion to bolt after the early cell, especially ones with excellent access to the deep moisture. This cell is tempting, as it's right on the boundary/moisture axis, drifting 10mph or slower to the west, and threatening to pinch off the moisture flow to the nw where I'm sitting. But I already resisted the urge to take off after the early stuff up in nrn KS, so I'll resist the same urge for this cell, though it could end up being the show of the day.
I'm gonna head back up through Meade, KS toward Minneola, KS to check out the cell developing in nc Clark county. It'll take about 1.5 hrs, should I stay on this course, so I'll keep a watchful eye w/sw toward the visible towers and further s/se via radar/sat over the next hr or so.
Aside: How about that crisp n-s oriented outflow boundary in eastern MO. The cloud band looks almost like one huge transverse roll radiating outward. There also appears to be a total solar eclipse in progress across parts of SD/ND
Alright Paul, still tagging along with you. The Danish chasers were a little antsy about your decision to go back north and are frankly tired of seeing the OK/KS border over and over again. However, I think SW/West-Central KS is a good bet for today and I think I have convinced them of that. After all, they can't complain about KS after 2007! Let's head for Minneola! I mean... let's head to Meade! Again...
Dennis Dennison
Alright, moving NW now to Pratt Ks
Patrick Martin
EF4
Got to Ness City, and held position just outside of town as I saw the cell near DDC go up. It's firing east of the dryline in a favorable environment, so it's worth watching. Going to drift east on hwy 96 a touch to let the storm come to me and see how well organized it becomes. Don't want to get to far east though as I'm keeping my eye on the tcu to the SW of my position, and need to be ready in the event storms start to fire down the dryline.
Leah Robertson
EF1
*Looks at 20Z update.*
There is cell that is trying to get organized just off to my NE near Minneola, KS and will closely watch to see what it exactly wants to do however...I did notice that this storm appears to be ahead of the TCU line which at the moment has caught my attention. Perhaps it will become more surface based. The pressures continue to fall across this region indicated by the 18Z and 20Z surface obs of Garden City and Dodge City. Moisture also continues to advect northward within an area of SE winds. The warmfront to the north looks very promising but just from experience, they have a tendency to get a little "messy" in Kansas so I'm going to go ahead and remain in Minneola, KS.
There is cell that is trying to get organized just off to my NE near Minneola, KS and will closely watch to see what it exactly wants to do however...I did notice that this storm appears to be ahead of the TCU line which at the moment has caught my attention. Perhaps it will become more surface based. The pressures continue to fall across this region indicated by the 18Z and 20Z surface obs of Garden City and Dodge City. Moisture also continues to advect northward within an area of SE winds. The warmfront to the north looks very promising but just from experience, they have a tendency to get a little "messy" in Kansas so I'm going to go ahead and remain in Minneola, KS.
From my position in Hays, I think the storm to target is the one just to the NE of Hill City, as it's very close to the OFB-dryline intersection. I'll probably head up that way and see what happens.
Charles Kuster
EF4
I recognize the event on this one, so I am out. The surface map actually sparked my memory instead of the satellite. I do remember looking at surface maps a lot on this day though. Interestingly enough, I forecasted this day differently in real life. Good pick Matt! 
Matt Gingery
21Z UPDATE WILL BE POSTED AT ROUGHLY 5 P.M. SO BE SURE YOU ARE IN THE POSITION YOU DECIDED ON BASED ON THE 19Z AND 20Z UPDATES.
EDIT: 23Z UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING. STORM REPORTS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EDIT: 23Z UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING. STORM REPORTS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
Last edited by a moderator:
Michael O'Keeffe
We can see the cell developing near Grainfield now and we are very close to WaKeeney so we are going to blast through WaKeeney and head further north of US283 to get NE of the developing storm. Like the ESE winds in Hill City too.
Marc Austin
EF4
Alright Paul, I know the date, so I'm going to forfeit this one. Good luck to you and our Danish buddies! I'll go ahead and place reservations at the Liberal Inn for the next Chase Case. Let's hope it's a KS day.
Brandon Ivey
EF2
I'm still sitting in Greensburg, KS watching this cell develop off to my west. I may jog up 183 to highway 50/56 to stay in the path of this storm as it develops. I will either be in Northern Kiowa Co. or in Edwards Co. for the 21Z update.
Temperature/dewpoint spreads are ~20 ahead of the dryline and even up to the warm front (Hill City Ob). I am thinking this will be a day where storms are high based for a few hours, mainly producing large hail and some damaging winds reports, then as the boundary layer begins to cool off towards sunset, tornadoes will become a threat. There are so many days in the spring where that last hour of daylight is magical! I just hate the damn teeter-totter effect of trying to balance instability on on side with increasing shear and lowering lcl levels on the other side! I guess that is what makes it fun.......I mean frustrating!
Temperature/dewpoint spreads are ~20 ahead of the dryline and even up to the warm front (Hill City Ob). I am thinking this will be a day where storms are high based for a few hours, mainly producing large hail and some damaging winds reports, then as the boundary layer begins to cool off towards sunset, tornadoes will become a threat. There are so many days in the spring where that last hour of daylight is magical! I just hate the damn teeter-totter effect of trying to balance instability on on side with increasing shear and lowering lcl levels on the other side! I guess that is what makes it fun.......I mean frustrating!
Josh Richardson
EF4
Well just to update my position before the 21z update, I am on the developing cell in SW KS near Kingsdown, KS or just SE of DDC.
